Mafia 54:Vampires Return (The Play)

[lanimret]

/Game off

Wife dragged me out of town as a surprise for the weekend for my birthday. I won't be on the computer most likely after this until Sunday.

/Game On

After the last batch my suspect list has changed.

I suspect JM for his teaming up with Jpap near the end there.

I no longer suspect Kash, Her picks have not seemed to gel in any meaningful fassion with the results and I feel she knows no more than the rest of the village.

I still suspect Zaffy, seriously.

I suspect JL for the same reasons I suspected Jpap. He is making sweeping paranoia inducing statements about pretty much everyone. Jpap turned out to be guilty and I think they are clearly using the same strategy. This is a definete change for me, I now suspect him as much as Zaff and I think others will do the same over the weekend.

I'm going to go ahead and hope others agree and that my vote this weekend can go to a good use. My confidence is extremely high.

I vote to stake Johnlarson

Don't worry Zaff, I'll get back to you sir.

 

[Coler]

Coler has brought up some interesting points.

I don't think rich is the LV, I just don't see it going to a tie. He could be a vampire. There is no way he is the LV. He would've voted jpap which he was unwilling to do. Even when pushed. While rich is not making much sense and is generally a distraction, he is not the LV.

I consider lani a non-factor who is just focused on their good friend Zaffy. If lani is a vampire, there is no way they are communicating with the rest of the team. Unless Zaffy and lani are a vampire team. I could sorta see a case for lani being the LV and willing to send Zaffy packing as a way to earn the town's trust. I just don't see that happening and if I am fooled by Zaffy and lani, then I am in need of a long vacation from mafia.

I totally agree on both of the bolden bits.

There are two ways to look on this. The complicated answer is that Rich is a vampire and jpappy is a vampire and for whatever internal reasons the vampires told Rich not to save himself perhaps to avoid Zaffy type late switch accusations against him. This makes no sense. If he switched to pappy and pappy comes updead on the lynch Rich looks pretty ok to great.

Now, if Rich is innocent one might also almost presume that all the votes voting pappy are innocent votes, i.e. over which the vampires have no control. You could even go so far as to say that all of the vampire votes must be on pappy, Because by god if they had a vote available to switch off pappy and get him out of the lynch and send an innocent to the gallows then of course they would have done so. You never as the scum team abandon a scum mate to a lynch if you can avoid it especially so early in the game.

The only thing I'd say about that is that there was a very low attendance at nightfall. Even factoring in the scum teams preference to attend nightfalls so as to a) cackle at their evilness and b) react to anything that turns up, it may be the case that some early votes for pappy were made by scumbags who then couldn't get back in time to change.

But the easy answer is usually the correct answer. Most likely Rich is playing a little bit all over the place to my mind (no offence Rich) but on the evidence of last night is not a vampire. Equally, because jpappy got left in a tie, the vampire votes were on Rich or possibly some members of their team were incommunicado and couldn't switch to him from whereever else they were (this would exonerate to my mind the people posting in the run up to nightfall as the tie happened).

I go back to jpappys list of scumbags and I do proceed on the basis that he would have named at least one of his three team mates on it.

This gives me as a working pool of suspects a) the people on jpappy's list and b) the people voting rich - yep I was one). I then proceed to exclude somewhat those who were posting in the run in to nightfall and I would still look at some early rich voters especially if they were not around at nightfall. I'll go back and pull up the names that fit later but just getting my thoughts out there.

The only other possible explanation - i.e. if rich is scum - would be that the vampire team is all over the place/some team members are not communicating/jpappy had said he would likely not be able to play on and wanted to be lynched - which also makes no sense because then they surely would have let one of their own give him the coup de grace. Equally, the more obvious answer to any given question is usually correct.

I think that all makes sense.

 

[IceH2O]

Is there any rule about the LV changing or passing the role on? I think we did that one game, but I am unsure.

Skimmer! It is clearly stated in the rules they can switch 1 time.

 

[Coler]

Thanks Ice - when it says he/she can switch one time, does that mean the switch is a permanent switch till end of game, and when does he/she have to tell you about the switch ?

 

[dirtydawg10]

dawg - I think he is keeping a safe enough distance back and is trying to start a train on Kash, who is an easy target, but not a good target. I think he wanted to get one going on rich. What doesn't make sense is why a vampire did not try ro save jpap. dawgs vote on Rb was a waste, why not try to save jpap.

JL, this makes absolutely no sense. At the beginning of your thoughts on me you say why I'm a vamp and at the end you prove why I'm not a vamp. I took my vote off Rich which put JPap (a known vamp) in the lead for being staked. Rich then moved off of JPap putting himself into a tie with JPap. That still doesn't make sense to me but I don't see how that makes me a vamp.

 

[dirtydawg10]

I am not going to clear rich, but I am fairly sure he is not the LV. If he was the LV he would have saved himself. If there was a swtich rule, they would not have switched the LV role to rich.

Kash was sure jpap was innocent and was also pointed out that Rb would be a good turn.

I don't think she would have stated this and then turned Rb. I also don't she would've posted like she did about jpap if there was a chance that he could be lynched. The votes were tight and she stuck her neck out. The LV or a fellow vampire, I don't think, would do that. Kash is too easy of a suspect.

I think the turning attempt of Rb is telling.

I would agree with you JL that it seems almost too easy for Kash to be a vamp. However here's some other posts Kash made about RB (the attempted turn). I think she was trying to set RB up for the next nightfall if he was the turn. Read what she has to say about JPap in this quote. I really don't see how you could read this and come to the conclusion that Kash is innocent. Kash also says she wanted to vote for RB. So why when he had 2 votes on him did she not vote for him? Because she wanted to turn him and she was trying to save JPap.

Okay. Being gone from this so long, I fell way behind. Caught up through 10 pm last night (pacific time) and here's what I have as of that point in time.

Rbishop is who I still want to vote for. But he's not even in the running. So I set out to find out..... why not?

To me, Rb was a turningpoint in the game and my strongest opinion I have of anyone is that he's a vampire. To figure out why I seem to be in the minority about that.. I had to go back from that point to where I am now (current through last night). "That point" being where Rbishop said for us to look at Jpappy > voted Noodles for voting Jpappy. That happened on the 18th.. so it's been 4 full days of posts for me to review in sequence. I tried pulling posts for different people at first, but that disconnects them from where they lie in relation to the discussion going on in the thread at the time.

Both Rich and Wycco have emerged IMO as I reviewed everything as most consistently distracting us from suspecting Rbishop. Those are my next suspects behind Rb for that reason.

I'm leaning Ogre, Johnlarson, and Zsand as suspicious. But not very strongly. At first, they posted a lot in agreement with my opinion (about Rbishop).. but they've each gone off since then. That's taken them from leaning innocent (which is scary) to possibly pointing hard at Rbishop for while (distancing) to then actually push for and vote for someone else (Jpappy) instead. All three of these players are smart enough and calculating enough to think that many chess moves ahead of us in the game. So for all three, I'm probably going to waiver between innocent or vamp quite a lot.

Ogre picked up suspicion on Rbish.. wandered around with that (when he was "thinking out loud") ....... but seems to have abandonded his position in Rb's regard ever since.

JL made the strongest arguments against Rbish (other than me so far). But instead of seeing that through, he's voting and pushing Jpappy instead. Zsand.. pretty much the same thing.. except now (this morning) I see he's voting Rich.

Based on the only suspicion I feel solid about (that being Rbishop is vamp).. I see both Jpappy and Noodles as being set up by Rb. My feeling is.. they're both innocent. We know now that Noods was innocent. And lynching Jpap isn't going to tell us anything to decide something I already believe is true...... about Rbishop.

Top suspects --> Rbishop + Rich/Wycco

Suspicion (unresolved/TBD/changes too often) --> Ogre, JL, Zsand.

Innocent --> Jpappy

Therefore...

I vote to stick a stake into Rich.

I'd rather vote Rbishop today, but he's not in the running. I'm as convinced as I can be about all three -- Rb, Rich, and Wycco. And I'm willing and prepared to switch my vote to either of these 3 between now and nightfall if that helps to lynch/stake either of them.

It's taken me since last night until now to get caught up. I've jotted down notes and I can go back and pull quotes if it's necessary to show what I base this on.

Right now, I have to go out. I should be back in about 2 hours.. maybe less. After that, I expect active and posting along with everyone for the rest of the day.

How many times in one quote can she say she wants to vote for RB but she never does. JL, she even says you are suspicious to her "but not very strongly"

With Dawg bailing Rich out by removing his vote, I'll update my suspect list. That gives me 4 picks now for the vampire team.

Rbishop + Rich/Wycco + Dawg

Her statement above that I was bailing Rich out seems ridiculous now that we all see she was trying to bail JPap out. Especially when I made it abundantly clear over the past couple of days what my feelings for Rich were.

 

[dirtydawg10]

You know JL...the more I look the more I think the vamps had a horrible night last night. I think you were right about JPap and that he was the LV. Why else would Kash and Rich try to blatantly save him? Rich was willing to take himself out to save JPap. I think they switched the LV role last night and that probably the 4th more quiet vamp is now the LV. Or Kash is now the LV. I would bet my life that Rich (if he is a vamp) is not the LV.

 

[OgreMkV]

You know JL...the more I look the more I think the vamps had a horrible night last night. I think you were right about JPap and that he was the LV. Why else would Kash and Rich try to blatantly save him? Rich was willing to take himself out to save JPap. I think they switched the LV role last night and that probably the 4th more quiet vamp is now the LV. Or Kash is now the LV. I would bet my life that Rich (if he is a vamp) is not the LV.

That's not a bad thought right there.

I also wonder about Lani's voting pattern change... hmm... This really makes me wonder who got the note that Ice mentioned. Lani changed his mind to someone that he had never considered before and said he would go back to Zaffy...

 

[dirtydawg10]

Kash was sure jpap was innocent and was also pointed out that Rb would be a good turn.

Can you point me to the quote where Kash says that RB would be a good turn? I went back through yesterday's posts and I don't see it. If she said it prior to that it has no relevance with your argument because yesterday she was all over RB (yet wouldn't vote him). Maybe you remembered her saying it to you in the vamp chat room?

 

[lanimret]

That's not a bad thought right there.

I also wonder about Lani's voting pattern change... hmm... This really makes me wonder who got the note that Ice mentioned. Lani changed his mind to someone that he had never considered before and said he would go back to Zaffy...

Snuck on once more here before my wife woke up.

I switched because I have an opportunity to help the village if people will listen. Nothing has come up that changes my opinion on Zaff. We can only vote for one person a day and I made the switch to the more obvious and immediate threat.

I have total confidence in this vote.