Mafia #57: The Great Mafia War- The Game

A few thoughts. (JL's going to hate this because I haven't quoted everything as I'm in a rush going through a lot of posts to catch up from my weekend dalliance).

It's a little early to say anything definate but let me try and catch up my thoughts:

1) RBishop- day one switching to make the first "favourite" talking about making a "train" - then later despite it being a "not much to go on vote" makes the comment "2 people not much of a train".

2) Ogre - I'm not going to make the mistake again to ever say on day two that Ogre looks innocent... LOL (see Maf 53.5)... but right now- I really don't see what the fuss is about against him. Could he be guilty- maybe- but there seems to be a strong effort to get him removed.

3) Zaffy - Not said much (neither have I)- but I think what Zaffy has said has been helpfull and insightfull so far. I don't think you can read anything from his quietness.

4) JohnL - seems to be trying very hard to push for Ogre to be removed. To me the whole Ogre vs JohnL thing looks suspicious. They both go back a ways in this sport- and I think have a mutual respect for each other's abilities. JohnL seems to be trying to build a case against Ogre out of nothing- as mentioned by others above- Ogre is one of those that are easy to build a case against regardless of guilt.

5) Why was Dawg removed- I don't see it as really a bad move on their part- he's a respected player. When you have to worry is when newer players are targeted- because then you can be fairly sure that most of the better veterans are likely all mafia or they would have been voted off.

6) Lady G - If Bishop is guilty (and he is on my suspect list) - Lady G would be next... because of her earlier reluctance to vote Bishop despite thinking him suspicious. I don't really have anything against her individually- but it's worth noting if Bishop is guilty to look at her.

7) Annie - I can't read Annie. He's a bit of a wild-card in every game. I'm not sure if it is deliberate but he's always bouncing around all over the place being unpredicatable. Makes it hard to pin anything on him- but he can look guilty even when innocent- bit of a teflon player though- hard to make anything stick to him.

I don't think his pre-night one shenanigans really say anything. I'm certainly not saying I'm leaning him innocent- I'd always treat him as a suspect because he is always an unknown.

I'm saying he's an unknown and I think people are reading too much into his late day one actions.
 
Oooops- my apology to Lady G. I took my notes wrong.

It looks like LuvBugz is whom number 6 should be aimed towards. I need to work on my short-hand notes! ;)
 
Update on my comments on Ogre and Zaffy...

In hindsight remembering that there are two sets of mafia- I don't think it really safe to lean either of them innocent because- even if they were mafia they would (in Ogre's case) be targeted by the other team- and if Zaffy's case (try to take down the other team).

At this point in time though, I see the most obvious targets as JohnL and RBishop... but I'm not 100% confident enough to say for sure yet.
 
...

3) Zaffy - Not said much (neither have I)- but I think what Zaffy has said has been helpfull and insightfull so far. I don't think you can read anything from his quietness.

...

I had a friend visiting this weekend. I'll be more active in the thread from here out. ;)
 
Really I don't care about the votes on me right now. The "getting Luvbugz to crack" theory is truly funny. I see JL pulling the same stuff he has before. He plants seeds about people's "scumminess" in other people's minds. He waits until someone else picks up on it and then jumps right aboard. When the person in question turns out to be innoncent, JL still looks okay because the everyone goes after the person who first voted; not JL.

To answer Ice, I didn't think Annie was protecting Ogre. I thought OGRE was protecting ANNIE by switching his vote. I think Annie's vote switching was to cover this fact up. So, it's not good enough for me to be voting for Ogre?? I really don't care who goes tonight. Annie, Ogre, and RB are all on my list. Add JL to my list as well. DD's following Ice's logic onto Annie was odd. That is all I have. I have been trying to keep up as much as I can.
 
Something about Ice is pulling at my gut too... not sure what- when I have more time I'm going to have to re-read the posts and look out to see if there is anything into that DD incident you mention.

If so- possible teams:

A:
Rbishop
JohnL
??? Luv Bugz ???


B:
??? Ice ???
??? DD ???




I don't know... I need to look back see if I can see anything about Ice and DD or not. So far I've not really seen anything.
 
I had a busy weekend so I am sorry for not contributing more. This week is shaping up to be equally hectic but I am going to try and find time. I've read a lot of discussion but there isn't much weight to any of it. We didn't learn much of anything from Day 1 because of how spread the votes were so I am all for limiting the number of candidates today. A one horse race tells us nothing but equally too many suspects gives scum a place to hide.

That said I feel Annie's jumping around like a certain past player (NJ) could have had a purpose. I believe he is scum and was hoping the crazy frustrated Townie routine would get him off the hook, seems it did. Honestly, he was never that much ahead of anyone else so I don't get why he was acting like there was a runaway train on him unless he is an important person.

I vote to lynch Annie.
 
I don't know, I hear RB does mean things with crochet hooks.
:lipssealedsmilie::laugh:
Day one is so full of misinformation. All we've got to deal with really is the voting record.

Annie - Although there are plenty of non-reasons to throw your vote around on day 1. The number of switches is what bugs me. I don't see any real benefit to changing your vote as many times as you did, but to each their own. I am bothered by the one post 119 with the 3 votes/retractions. That seems like unnecessary dirt kicking to me.

RB, Ogre, Ogre, LG, Wood, and DD (I'm looking only at the vote list, so I may have missed a name, or timing) are interesting votes because they are the votes that gave a person more than one. Not much to go on. I think it's a necessary tactic on day one in fact. Still something to keep in the back of my mind.

As far as Ogre saving Annie. I can certainly see the reasoning behind this accusation. Whether it's true or not, I don't feel like I have enough info to make that call, but I can certainly see the logic behind it. Looking at his posts, I get a vibe that it's a set up to distance them from each other while still saving Annie. My problem is that I don't see why Ogre would put the #2 vote on in the first place. It seems sloppy and frivolous.

Lady G and Ogre, (maybe someone else OMG SKIMMING!) have brought up that RB and/or I might be responsable for putting a hit on Dawg. I see it being a useful tactic to deflect suspicion, or cast it depending on your perspective.

I'm bothered by the non-voters. If they forgot they're playing or what.

If I add up my points here. I think the best bet is between RB, Annie and Ogre.

I vote to lynch RBishop

I'm going with RB because it's the most tinfoil of the ideas and I'd like to hear from him his take on the subject. This vote of course subject to availability and change. Not valid with other offers. Not available to residents of Utah, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.
Ummmm, Zaf....I did not give Kash more then one vote with my vote..I was the first vote on her.
LG- Annie 132
Ogre- Rocker 136, Luv 156, JL 178
Annie- JL 141, DD 154, Jmax 168
Rb- Zaffy 155, Wood 161, Jmax 168, Ogre 177
Ice- MC 157
Rocker- Annie 166
Luv- Ice 173

No votes: Rb, Rich, Zs, Wycco, Lan*, LG

*Risk UDing
Pap...my vote is on Annie, and has been for a while now.:p:
I'll post right out in the open I have Annie way down my list.

Due to his actions and the actions of others against him.

Can you think of a reason why if mafia he would risk dying day 1 by coin flip?

He could have voted for a number of other ppl to add another name into the coin flip and lower his risk even more if he was.
Sorry Ice...his actions clear nothing IMO. I doubt I would of moved a vote to "save" myself if I were mafia, it would just draw to much attention to the fact I did especially if the person ended up innocent that I moved to. There was so many tied the risk of actually being the one the coin flipped on were pretty slim.
 
Pap....post 143, it does kinda blend in I spose so I can see how you missed it ;)
 
OK... I've gone through and reread everything more thoroughly.

A couple of notes:
1) On reflection I was probably a little harsh on my judgement of JohnL for trying to "build cases" in my earlier skim through. On reflection it looks like ICE is as guilty-or more guilty of this. I also don't get the impression Ice and JL are on the same team... but wouldn't be surprised if both were guilty. I still don't trust JL though- and I trust Ice less.

2) Annie- after re-reading the thread I am definately seeing why people are jumping on the Annie train- he has been more suspicious than normal. If his RL issues are real then sorry to hear that. - however the fact that he complained about RL issues in the past when guilty makes me wonder. I also seem to wonder if he is initiating some simulated squabbling. If lynched and guilty- it'll be interesting to look through his posts and see who he is squabbling with and what seems forced. I know from being guilty with him in prior games- he is fond of the simulated squabbling idea. Still hard to read him because he is unpredicatable.

3) LuvBugz... again, I pin her guilt on the assumption that RB is guilty- something I'd love to know but she did seem to be trying to distance herself from RB at the same time not voting for him.


In RB's defence however... I've got him leaning guilty BUT- he did vote for Dawg. It'd be pretty stupid to vote for the person your team is going to lynch when there is a real chance that person might get voted off anyway. RB could have changed vote but didn't. Therefore I think it unlikely RB is on the same team as the team that submitted the hit on Dawg.


Day one no-shows. Lan, MC, and JMax all strange... JMax had an excuse... Lan was quiet like that last game...

MC is normally somewhat around though. MC also voted for ICE day two but didn't give any reasoning whatsoever and has made no other comments.


Here's my thoughts on who might be linked. (none with much confidence- but theories to watch)

I think LB and RB might be team mates.
I think Annie and DD might be team mates.
I think JL and Ice may both be guilty but I do not think they're on the same team.
I think MC is not on the same team as Ice but is extremely suspicious.


I have no super-strong suspects but my main concerns are (in no particular order):
Ice, JL, Bishop, MC, Annie

Slight concerns:
LB and DD

Again- I'm not sure about any of this- just throwing out theories and seeing how people respond but...

Theoretical Team A
Ice
Bishop
LB
???


Theoretical Team B
JohnL
Annie
DD
MC



Would JPappy give us 8 Mafia to deal with?
 
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