Mafia 59 - MAFIA WARS - The Play

[noodles62]

My suspects: So far, I have 4 people on my mafia list.


Noodles - Voted Rich the first day and wanted to vote Rich today too. Then once she noticed JL and TRS were voting Rich.. she balked. Switched to JL instead. So she's not voting her top suspect, she's more concerned about covering her own butt by not voting alongside probably mafia players. But that makes no sense.. 2/3 of everyone are on one of the mafia teams. This isn't a black and white good vs. evil game.. it's a good vs. 3 different evils game. So this reasoning doesn't wash. Innocents and mafia are going to vote together a lot in this format.

Well, let's see - out of the 3 players that voted Frog we know that at least one of them is Mafia; odds are at least 2 are IMO. Do I throw a single vote on TRS who "claims innocence", tie it up with a vote on JL or be the third vote on Rich.....Decisions, decisions. For now, I will go with my vote of choice last night and I vote to lynch Rich. yea, yea, I know that puts me third on but so what?

Wait a minute! That puts me voting along with 2 of the 3 candidates......would team mates vote for the same person? Perhpas they are on opposing mafia teams?

I am in the mood for a little controversy! I retract my vote for Rich and vote to lynch JohnLarson. I would like see where the rest of the votes fall. I really do not trust anyone at this point, except Frog and he is dead, but one of these 3 has to be mafia so my vote will be on one of them......

First of all Kashta, Rich is or was not my top suspect. I voted him on day one as he always skates by and there really was not much else to go on being it was day one. If you care to carefully read my post I stated I was voting for him as he was my vote choice the prior nightfall.

Second of all, I did not switch my vote (or Balk as you put it) to cover my butt. All 3, Rich, JL & TRS are questionable at this point and I did not feel right about voting along with two of the three potential evils and assist them in taking out what could very well their enemy (ie possible innocents). Why would I want to vote along with possible mafia and help them acheive their goal? That makes no sense.

Now I have to get back to work. This time of year is very busy for me......

Oh, also I find TRS's and Annie's claims of innocence concerning and ludicrious! :thumbsdown:

 

[Kashta]

None of us have enough to go on yet. So we all try to fill in the blanks. It's too soon to tell what's right. I've posted what I can.. much of it might be wrong. I know that as well as anyone else. Maybe it's easier for me to see all 3 as top suspects because I can't choose between them. lol. I wouldn't deny that either. But I still count Luvbugz as suspect and I've looked for others who may be suspicious too. That's as far as I could get thus far.

I'm leaving now and will be gone most of the day. I'll be back before nightfall, just don't know when exactly. Then I'll be leaving again right afterward.

Hope we get more developments to consider throughout the day.

Back later...

 

[johnlarson66]

Here Kash states her thoughts on Frog -

Frog, you are starting to worry me. I get that you're a noob and probably need to feel your way around on the first day of your first game, but this is ridiculous.

Here, you placed your vote for today already.. on TRS.



When questioned why.. here's your response.



Here, the person you voted pointed out that you didn't vote right. It wasn't bolded. That was a clue for you to re-read the rules. And you missed that.



Here... I don't even know what you were doing.



Here, another player spelled it out for you.



And after all that, you decided to vote Noodles -- still not done correctly in bold as the rules say.

Here are the voting rules you need to follow.



I don't like voting off a noob either on Day 1 and I had the general impression that if Froglover has teammates that they wouldn't let the new player make these mistakes.. or they'd at least tell the person how to fix the first botched vote on TRS... to brush up on the basics and go over the rules... and to pay better attention to what's been pointed out in the thread. Since it seems Frog isn't getting some real important advice, I was leaning them innocent more than evil.

However.. based on the way Frog isn't listening to people in this thread either, I'm beginning to doubt whether they would be listening to advice given by teammates if Frog has teammates.

At this point, I'm starting to lean Frog way more suspicious than before.

I'm still not going to vote Frog being this is Day 1. But if this continues, Frog will very likely get my Day 2 vote.

I stated my thoughts -

Part of me really wants to vote for frog...

Here noods speaks up about Frog -

I tend to agree........wierd play style in the least.........

 

[johnlarson66]

Here Rich puts in his thoughts -

Me too, or will he give his vote to someone.

I make the move and explain myself -

I think frog has been given a chance to fix their vote and to read the rules. I don't like the idea of them not getting it. Even some of the biggest noobatards have been able to vote. I have tried to help and they even posted afterwords.

Even if they figure it out, I am over it. Why wait until tomorrow? I am breaking one of my own day one rules and am going to vote for a noob. I can only hope that they do not take it personal and that they read the rules and follow along. Maybe they will play again.

I retract my vote on Luvbuqz and vote to lynch Froglover007.

Rich changes his -

I retract my vote on RB and vote lynch Frog. I dont want to see an extra vote go to someone. As JL said he had time to fix it.

Noods jumps in, but states that because it is now a tie that "we" are saving Bugs.

Interesting that it has become a tie between Bugs and Frog....Are we saving Bugs??

I thought noods leaving her lone vote and not switching was suspect and I still do. She was active on the game, she stated that a lone vote was not good and she had several other suspects. She could have gotten into the fight, but stood safely in the shadows. Even her first vote on rich is suspect.

 

[jpappy789]

JL, Ice tends to be hit early more often than not. He's active and ruffles a lot of feathers...since he wasn't on the team that hit him, it makes sense why they would want him gone as soon as possible. He would need to be taken out eventually.

That's my take.

I have to go but hopefully I will be back on so I can wrap my head around this Kash-JL argument.

 

[rich311k]

I vote to lynch TRS. Just in case something happens and I do not get home in time.

 

[Kashta]

JL, Ice tends to be hit early more often than not. He's active and ruffles a lot of feathers...since he wasn't on the team that hit him, it makes sense why they would want him gone as soon as possible. He would need to be taken out eventually.

That's my take.

I have to go but hopefully I will be back on so I can wrap my head around this Kash-JL argument.

Pappy, don't even bother with this. It's a time waster for this thread. JL is doing what JL always does... but I'm not going to play along. I gave my reason for how I'm voting today. And JL wants to poke at it to death.. he's got no choice because he's 1 of the 3 folks who voted Frog. To sum it up... (1) We know 1 of them is mafia. (2) Some of us think 2 of them is mafia. (3) I'm of the opinion, they're all 3 mafia. That's all it is. Pick whichever option you like best and vote that way.

John can argue it if he wants but I'm done with that part of this now. My vote is placed.. I've stated my reasons... and I'm going to keep looking for clues in the thread that may lead to other suspects.

 

[jpappy789]

I would hazard a guess that Ice suspected Frog was Innocent and didn't want to be associated with the lynch of an Innocent on Day 1. Once it got close on votes towards Night he dove off like a rat off a sinking ship. He didn't know he would be Hit that Night.

Maybe I am misreading what you said but the problem is that Ice was never voting Frog, so there was no "jumping ship". He switched from ME to Luv. And he even said that he was leaning Frog innocent (see below).

I see Ice's late switch as just being aggressive. He saw Luv as a good vote, probably knew there was a good chance of hitting mafia as a bonus, and took a leap of faith.

Wow a quick run on Frog.

Frog is either innocent or not in contact with his team. Even if not in contact I couldn't imagine he doesn't have 100 PMs telling him to fix his vote. So I have him leaning innocent.

Since Noods isn't sure enough to be the lynchman on Luv I will be. Voting a total different suspect then any you've mentioned is enough for me over some noob not voting correctly.


I retract my vote on Jpap and vote to lynch Luv

My suspects: So far, I have 4 people on my mafia list.

1. Rich, JL, and TRS - I think all 3 of them are mafia (as I've posted before).
2. Luvbugz - Very likely mafia (as I've posted before).

Wonder about:

Jpappy - For not being all that suspicious of Rich versus JL and TRS. However.. Jpap is working quite hard clearing up confusion and kicking the bushes so he could be working for the town. However... Jpap always does that anyway when he's evil to appear innocent - and - multiple mafia teams means it's okay for mafia to go after mafia (not only innocents) as long as they aren't a teammate.

DD - For not really doing anything so far that's helpful to the town. DD got confused (skimming) and posted to address that. She's also sparred back and forth a lot with Jpappy for no reason. But what else? Nothing at all, really.

Annie - His random Day 1 vote on me was lame (even for him) and him professing innocence the same way TRS did.

Noodles - Voted Rich the first day and wanted to vote Rich today too. Then once she noticed JL and TRS were voting Rich.. she balked. Switched to JL instead. So she's not voting her top suspect, she's more concerned about covering her own butt by not voting alongside probably mafia players. But that makes no sense.. 2/3 of everyone are on one of the mafia teams. This isn't a black and white good vs. evil game.. it's a good vs. 3 different evils game. So this reasoning doesn't wash. Innocents and mafia are going to vote together a lot in this format.

Kash, as I have already said I am not comfortable voting Rich only because he voted for frog. Both JL and TRS have acted suspiciously in my mind, hence why I find them better suspects.

Now to get my vote in... This time, I really wish I could vote for all 3 names at the same time. I'm leaning toward JL the most over Rich and TRS. That's mainly because JL made wonder if he was scummy when he agreed with me about Luvbugz and switched his vote the same way I was voting right after I posted. JL always makes me nervous when he does that... but it happens when he's evil and for the town, so I try to ignore that. Which puts this back to a 3-way draw for me.

Since JL is leading now, I'll vote Rich to tie that up. Maybe from a strategic standpoint, we'll see someone else switch off around. Or those who haven't voted yet will bring TRS back into the tie.

I vote to lynch Rich.

Interesting. Not sure what to think as ties can certainly help, but you explicitly state you have JL as a higher suspect than Rich or TRS.

So Kash, as nightfall draws nearer, would you rather see JL (your top suspect) get lynched or try to keep it as a tie?

While it is 100% fact that one of us (myself, rich, trs) is mafia. That is the only fact. It does not mean all three of us are mafia or even two of us are mafia - it only means that one is mafia for sure.

It would be very hard to take any three players and not have one of them be mafia.

The last three posters (Kash, ZS and Luv) - I am sure that one of them is mafia. The odds are in favor of the mafia. There are twice as many mafia as innocents. 8 - 4.

Which means that 2/3 of the players are mafia. Yes, we only know for sure that one of the three who voted frog are scum but probability still says that two of the three are as well.

Agree with both of these posts.





All of this is also true.



I've posted this before, but I'll restate this to answer JL.



As we've just been talking about, I think all 3 people voting Frog did so because each of them thought he was innocent. I honestly don't believe an innocent would have voted Frog at all with a clear conscience with the belief that he (or she) was likely mafia. And as Zsand has speculated that's possibly the reason Ice didn't vote Frog at the last minute... because he also believed (possibly) that Frog was innocent or Luv was more likely (rival) mafia. In that case, Ice would have backed off from voting Frog because it might incriminate him as mafia.

So... the fact that we know 1 of those 3 are mafia (because of the double-vote) is consistent with this theory. And so is the basic rule of thumb we have that 2 out of any 3 are likely mafia. There's still no reason not to believe (IMO) in this specific case that all 3 of these particular names aren't mafia... because they all voted Frog.

As for who's on which mafia team? I haven't the slightest idea. Each mafia individual has the same goal regardless of which mafia team they're on... to kill off their rivals and take out innocents. There's plenty enough overlap in purpose for rival mafia players to naturally vote with each other to kill a suspected innocent. That's what I think happened with JL, Rich, and TRS when voting Frog last night.

Then that poses the question, why did Ice move at all? He was safe on me with the votes tied with Luv and frog. Did he know that frog would be getting the double vote because one of his teammates was voting frog, thus he tried to cover that up by voting Luv? That would at least give there team a 50% chance of not being exposed by frog being lynched.

Too much speculation for my liking. I still think that Ice was being aggressive and thought that taking out Luv was more advantageous than letting a newb be lynched.

I voted frog simply because he was not playing right and I did not want someone to get 2 votes which I though would be in effect today not the night fall that day.

I have not decided yet who I will vote for. I am leaning TRS, JL seems to be working hard for the town at least it seems that way to me.

I actually had no guess who was what when I voted for him. I figured and still do he was not helpful at all and the votes being given away could be dangerous. I think it was the best thing to do to help the town to win. Better than a random vote on RB.

With my assumption of there being only 5 innocents, I felt there was a strong possibility that Frog was mafia.

Also, lets just say someone else was lynched, who would not be voting Frog today. Frog was not helpful in any manner.

Any assumptions that an innocent would have not voted for Frog is just an assumption, not based on any facts.

I also don't think this going to a 3 way tie is good at all.

Also what has been lost in all of this - Why was Ice hit? Did someone just want to get rid of a good player or was someone afraid he was on to them? Did someone want to frame him? Did they think Ice was innocent? Did they even care?

Being an unhelpful newb is not a good reason to vote for someone, even if the odds are that they are mafia. The same odds were for everyone else to essentially you only voted for the reason that frog had no idea what was going on.

So, did you actually find that scummy or just anti-town?

Frog was a newb, so I find his/her confusion justified for the day. We've all taken part in voting off confused players who are new, but generally thats during a game when the innocents are at an advantage numerically. I don't see an innocent taking the chance with voting for frog...

I guess that means that I'm bumping Rich up the list. I could easily see all three being mafia, but I have JL still on top because of other actions and would rather see him go first. I'm not sure if keeping it as a tie would help with there being so many teams that switching votes wont point in any one direction.

 

[Kashta]

Okay.. I'll pick out the parts of this directed to me and answer them.

Kash, as I have already said I am not comfortable voting Rich only because he voted for frog. Both JL and TRS have acted suspiciously in my mind, hence why I find them better suspects.

We don't know for sure, so yes.. that's just as valid a position as any other we have right now.

Interesting. Not sure what to think as ties can certainly help, but you explicitly state you have JL as a higher suspect than Rich or TRS.

So Kash, as nightfall draws nearer, would you rather see JL (your top suspect) get lynched or try to keep it as a tie?

Yes sort of. I started suspecting JL when he agreed with my point about Luv and switched his vote. But I also discount that because I know it just spooks me when he does that. So it's still a draw.

Would I rather see JL lynched or keep it a tie? I have no idea. It works out okay either way. There are so many mafia among us right now, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting one or two or three of them. I think Frog unwittingly gave us 3 very good mafia suspects to lynch now. And we've got a good hold on all three of them. As far as I'm concerned, it makes no difference which one we lynch first or last. I'd like to see all 3 of them go. I'd also like to see Luvbugz get back in the game because my reason for voting her before still remains unresolved.

Frog was a newb, so I find his/her confusion justified for the day. We've all taken part in voting off confused players who are new, but generally thats during a game when the innocents are at an advantage numerically. I don't see an innocent taking the chance with voting for frog...

I guess that means that I'm bumping Rich up the list. I could easily see all three being mafia, but I have JL still on top because of other actions and would rather see him go first. I'm not sure if keeping it as a tie would help with there being so many teams that switching votes wont point in any one direction.

That's the same problem I have with this. I wanted to vote Frog because he was annoying.. which is a lousy reason. Also wanted to vote Frog because acting foolish can be a scum sign.. but that wasn't a strong enough reason to settle there. But I didn't vote Frog in the end because there was too good a chance he was innocent... which he was.

 

[AnniesNotOK]

I'm sorry. I dont have time to get caught up right now, I have a long drive ahead of me.

I won't be around at nightfall.

I vote to lynch Rich.