Mafia #7 -- The Play

[IceH2O]

Rereading my post I added to many or

Now I agree with this wholeheartedly. The mafia wants to hit who they think aren't lynchable. That is people that they think they would have a hard time getting lynched due to being hard to read or very helpful low side posters. People that are vocal like myself already put targets on themselves and have lots of posts to twist and turn.


Correction in red

 

[Madcrawdad]

But I don't agree with Z as much. I think Z is lynchable. Maybe not as quickly as others but still lynchable. If anyone stands out for not being hit it is Mad. Historically in these games Coler or Mad have been hit early. Did a hit go out on Mad by the new mafia or is Mad one of the mafia, new or old?

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Nope. Been hit early a few times, hit late a few times, and actually did finish a game...but just listen to yourself. 'Let's think about lynching DD just for being in the game, and then maybe get Mad since the mafia didn't hit him on Night 1.' If you think I've done something scummy, feel free to build a case, but don't just go off chasing butterflies.

The only thing that keeps me from voting for you at this point is that your current trains of thought seem so blatantly anti-town. Almost too scummy for you to actually be scum.

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[charlie_stubbs]

go with ice!

you wont be sorry

This makes me nervous. Here is the thing. So far you have said you know 100% Ice is mafia. So unless you broke into his house and checked his e-mail, you are claiming to be the detective. Then a post that says we won't be sorry. Unless i'm reading this wrong you have information that i do not.

 

[IceH2O]

Heading out to work

Mad you missed the most important part of that post.

I can't say I see anything on either one at this moment, but since you brought up the lynch vs no lynch I thought I'd have to throw the most obvious name out there.

Wasn't trying to start a case against you.

With half the game players being mafia I think we need to think like the mafia a little bit.

 

[charlie_stubbs]

JL i agree that it is very important to consider who was not hit. When there is one team, i fully expect certain players will be dead (Coler or Mad as examples) come morning and when they are not, i become suspicious that they are mafia. With two teams it's far more difficult. For all i know the "New School" was trying to kill a skilled player but got an investigation instead.
We must look into why they killed Lady G. I look at her post and see 4 names that i can be fairly certain she isn't aligned with.
Ice
Sploke
ZSandman
Wata.
So, the Old School Gang, who would of believed Lady was innocent methinks, either killed her because:
A. She has named at least two of them. In the past when she was an innocent, she has proven herself a skillfull investigator. They cannot let her ruin their plans.
B. She has named a list of innocents. Thinking she was innocent, they wanted us to follow her list.

 

[Madcrawdad]

Day One is just guessing in the dark.

All of this "looks mafia" stuff is complete BS. Not entirely true. Unfortunately on Day 1, there's very limited information to go on, so folks are generally lynched for what would seem trivial reasons on any other day. With no player history (flaws in logic, slip-ups, etc.) to examine, we have to use some sort of information to determine who to lynch. So we look for 'tells' that someone may be mafia. While far from perfect, they can be helpful, especially in the absence of any other information.

If there are people that think I am mafia because of my day one voting for role playing, then I suggest that you make your move now.

Let's get to the bottom of this.

If you really think I am mafia for voting for the first role player, then by all means vote for me. If this is going to be used against me the whole game, then lets clear it up now. I wouldn't worry too much. What can appear scummy on Day 1 is usually forgotten once a player shows that they are actually interested in helping the town lynch scum (and not just blend in).

In the next game, I am going to do the same. I would expect you to, and in the past was amused when you cast votes for role-players. I just never realized that you stuck to those votes.

I also know that as a group, we have decided that voting for no body on day one is bad for the town. Well, historicly our lynches have been bad for the town as far as killing an innocent. Yes, but we did learn something.

What have we learned from last nights lynch train. Almost nothing. We all got a chance to see Ice freak out about the train. The more I think about it and the more I do not see him freaking out about the votes he has on him now makes a good case for him, as an innocent. Disagree. Not saying it makes him mafia, just doesn't make him look innocent to me.

We really need to focus on who the mafia hit and who they did not hit. Agreed on focusing who got hit....somewhat disagree about looking at who didn't. With 2 competing mafia teams, we won't ever know who was NOT of interest (in terms of being hit) to either of the mafia teams.

We also need to think as if we were in the mafia, who would we want to hit. Most of us have been mafia at least once, so we should understand this. If I was mafia, I would not hit Ice, I would let the town lynch him. I have to think who would I hit.

So why did they hit Lady G? Was she onto something. Was what she onto going to put us on a wild goose chase?

vote change

I vote to lynch ZSandmann

Why ZS? The mafia did not kill hit him and he "wanted" me to vote for him on day one. As I said in an earlier post, Z's 'clusters' disturb me. Almost like he was floating them in hopes that they would grow some legs and actually go somewhere, without him having to push too hard. I wouldn't have a problem if he had done the legwork and validated his theory using past game data, but to pull them out for use in a 'live' game is a little unsettling.

I also think voting Ice out at this time is a mistake. If he's innocent, I agree

.

 

[charlie_stubbs]

i'm more inclined to go with theory A, as that doesnt look like a list of innocents. Also, during nightfall, i kept refreshing and instead of checking the posts, i was checking the users viewing the thread. CONSTANTLY. I had an interesting result. Each time it said 14 users viewing thread, with only one name appearing, JohnLarson. I literaly keep checking over and over. No change. Until a moment came when two names where appearing, but the total amount of people viewing hadn't changed. Still only 14. It suggested to me that the name now appearing had switched from invisible mode. Is this a reach?? Yep, and i am reluctant to disclose who that was until there is some discussion because it does seem to be reaching a bit. But the name is on that list of 4 so its worth discussion methinks

 

[charlie_stubbs]

Charlie thinks about another long day at the hair salon and shudders. Charlie used to fall asleep in high school and dream about going to Univerisity and being an astronaut. How did this happen to Charlie???

 

[Dangerdoll]

I think his reasoning at the time was that he wasn't sure that everyone got roleplay roles, that only innocents were given suggestions, which made him think she was an innocent since she got a role suggestion. Ice then clearred it up by saying that he pm'ed rb, who said everyone got suggestions, not just innocents.

Who says only innocents got the role playing suggestions? By Ice saying that he PMed rb is only a tactic he used to try and prove he's not mafia when in fact he is....
I'm going to put my vote in for Ice, I was suspicious of him from last night ever since he posted the "defensive" post seprating him from Sway. Still that post makes no sense to me and hearing all of what's been going on since I posted yesterday only solidifies my thoughts on him. Sorry Ice, but you have been found.....
I vote to lynch Ice

 

[ZSandmann]

Z, your use of 'clusters' (as you like to call them) makes me a little nervous, and also makes me question your affilaition within the town. On Day 1 you tossed out the idea and even floated a couple of clusters. When JPap questioned you on the clusters, you admitted that you didn't even use the time stamp on the post to determine your clusters. Seems a little odd to me, seeing that the time stamp would be the only variable that would seem to make sense when creating the clusters. What were you hoping to achieve when clustering by posting order? If I recall correctly, folks in some of your clusters posted several hours apart.

I agree that there may be something to some clusters sometimes, but I'm not going to start voting for people based on them without an established pattern (especially on Day 1 or 2). Had you gone back and looked at previous games and said 'In Mafia 5, players A, B, and C frequently posted within minutes of each other, and all 3 ended up mafia...' and also given a few more cases, then I could buy into the idea. But you haven't. It appears that you're willing to start testing your theory in a 'live' game, which could have a very negative impact on the town.

Now others have also seized on the 'clusters'. HN is even painting me into one with Joander and DeputyChief for my vote on Swayde, even though I'm willing to share the engineer hat with Chas (Ice has made it REALLY clear that he doesn't want it).

Folks should vote for who they want to, but I think we need to be detectives and lynch based on facts. Not play statisticians and try to do a cluster analysis on data that's qualitative at best. Willingness to lynch somebody based on this untested cluster analysis sure seems anti-town to me.

You have a valid point Mad. I only used the "cluster" theory to try and stimulate posting and it worked but only a little. I never put much into it because I didn't have much to begin with. The thing is that with my schedule there aren't many people posting when I am on so I do things like the cluster to try and get people to come out of the woodwork. Much the same way I keep baiting sploke, and that is working very well I think. I may have worded it differently but I did look at the times I just didn't study them too closely. Several people I did observe with refresh that posted basically on top of one another, but there may have been outlyers.