Mafia #70: The Time Vortex

[Zaffy]

Alright folks, finally catching up with the old stuff. Found some interesting stuff (at least IMO) thanks to reading closely through some of LG's posts yesterday. She actually brought all of this up yesterday when voting Ogre, but I don't feel that Ogre answered her sufficiently.

So Ogre, if we could revisit this....

5/8 4:08 PM CDT
Here's where you make your bold "Z is scum" proclamation and vote for Z. Fine. You also go on, though, to say that you are "perfectly happy switching to LadyG if need be." Says to me, you feel pretty good that LG is probable scum...


5/8 7:48 CDT
Here you point out to JB that you'd "be willing to put money" on Z and LG being mafia. Again, you must feel pretty good that LG is probable scum...


5/8 10:07 CDT
Here, after arguing for much of the day with LG, you act all upset and say "I will (now) happily change my vote to LadyG, who, until now, I didn't suspect that much." ... WHAT?!

You already said 6 hours earlier that you would happily switch to LG then. Then 2 hours earlier you said you'd bet money on her being scum.
And then you tell her that you hadn't really suspected her until right now.


In the two posts below, LG points out the discrepancy with you 'just now' finding her strongly suspicious when many hours ago you were willing to vote her, and bet money on her being scum...



When LG pointed out the discrepancy of you being willing to vote her earlier, and then saying you didn't suspect her until now, you kind of brushed her off with a bogus answer. This doesn't answer for the discrepancy at all.


Again you try to answer her charges, and give her a bogus answer... Note the reason that you claim that LG is voting for you. I'd say you're wrong, that's not even close to what she said, and you're just throwing a lot of words out there as a smoke-screen.


I vote to lynch Ogre

Early on he's "happy to switch his vote to LG if necessary," a couple hours later he's willing to bet money on LG being scum, and a couple of hours after that he tells LG that he "just now" decided that she was really scummy. So why was he whipping out his wallet earlier? Doesn't make sense.

Inconsistency = Scum

Mad makes a pretty good argument here.
I want to see how Ogre responds, but I really don't like the contradiction.
I vote to lynch Ogre

Itsa list of scummy people, not people who get along...

I'm gonna put you on my scummy list. You've been playing a better game, but you've also been bringing up topics that are anti-town. I think you were looking for town PRs earlier.

 

[Fishfriend1]

I'm gonna put you on my scummy list. You've been playing a better game, but you've also been bringing up topics that are anti-town. I think you were looking for town PRs earlier.

Actualy i was trying to find out if the lab worker was scum or not. I think i was told he was not scum, and therefore dropped it. I was trying ti find out who was the lab worker, but if the Lab worker isnt scum then i dont want to know. Sorry for the Misunderstanding. Oh, and im fine if you put me on you scumlist, just make sure you have valid reasons. Oh, and thanks for noticing im doing better this game!

 

[johnlarson66]

I am curious of what Ogre will say or do next.

Mad has made a pretty good case, looks like his waiting paid off.

ZS has gotten me pretty good before and he is an above average player. It seems to be his return was about 16 hours late. I think he expected to be lynched when Orge came out guns blazing. Now that ZS has a second chance he is stepping things up. I do like the fact that he is willing to be lynched to get to the bottom of all this and has not thrown out a third name.

While I do not like many of the things that Orge has posted pertaining to me, I do not think he was scum yesterday. He could have been turned, but I think his first post about his scum tell on ZS is from an innocent player that is confident in his findings. I keep waiting for Orge to use one of the outs that he has put into place today and switch his vote.

My vote stays on ZS unless Orge does something crazy.

 

[Kashta]

So, we are heading into what looks like a 2 horse race and you leave your vote as a singleton?

At this point in the day there is no gaurantee it will stay a singleton. Who knows what will come up when people start posting.

With ZS as the only one I feel comfortable enough to vote right now before DD, switching would just possibly lead to a landslide and we wouldn't learn anything as it is too easy for scum to hide.

scenario, ZS lynched by landslide, flips scum, where do you think the two scum will be voting?

Two things concern me about Wizard's post.

First, that we do learn something from singleton votes as well... primarily because vote analysis isn't viewed as a slice in time. Those of us who rely on voting patterns throughout the course of a game as much as I do look at these votes for all days in a game, not just one. Besides that, even if you had switched your vote from DD to Zsand, that alone would have no bearing by itself on whether those votes are a landslide. As you said, a lot may happen between now and nightfall and there are already 7 other people voting Zs.

Second, Wizard also refers to there being 2 scum when we know a 3rd one was turned and has replaced HN who was lynched. That means they're back at 3 again, not still down to 2.

I'd like these issues addressed when you get back, Wizard.

 

[johnlarson66]

Two things concern me about Wizard's post.

First, that we do learn something from singleton votes as well... primarily because vote analysis isn't viewed as a slice in time. Those of us who rely on voting patterns throughout the course of a game as much as I do look at these votes for all days in a game, not just one. Besides that, even if you had switched your vote from DD to Zsand, that alone would have no bearing by itself on whether those votes are a landslide. As you said, a lot may happen between now and nightfall and there are already 7 other people voting Zs.

Second, Wizard also refers to there being 2 scum when we know a 3rd one was turned and has replaced HN who was lynched. That means they're back at 3 again, not still down to 2.

I'd like these issues addressed when you get back, Wizard.

Okay, Kash, slow down and read:

"scenario, ZS lynched by landslide, flips scum, where do you think the two scum will be voting?"

So ZS is mafia #1 and wiz wants to know where #2 and #3 mafia will be voting.

And I thought DD was a skimmer...

If it is a landslide then most likely mafia teamates will be on ZS. They could easily hide there.

I agree landslides (or trains) with lopsided results are pointless and we learn nothing.

 

[Kashta]

Oh crap. Disregard that second point. I did misread that.

 

[jpappy789]

Zs- JL 1004, Ogre 1027, FF 1035, JL 1042, Chaz 1057, Rich 1113, Kash 1138, Lab 1175
DD- Lab 1102, Wiz 1115
Ogre- Zs 1168, Mad 1173, FF 1181, Zaffy 1211

No votes from DD, Fire, Noods, Jb, Rb

NIGHTFALL IN JUST OVER 7 HOURS

I may be a bit late for nightfall depending on the timing of what I have to do tonight. Everything counts up until I call night.

 

[noodles62]

Zs- JL 1004, Ogre 1027, FF 1035, JL 1042, Chaz 1057, Rich 1113, Kash 1138, Lab 1175
DD- Lab 1102, Wiz 1115
Ogre- Zs 1168, Mad 1173, FF 1181, Zaffy 1211

No votes from DD, Fire, Noods, Jb, Rb

NIGHTFALL IN JUST OVER 7 HOURS

I may be a bit late for nightfall depending on the timing of what I have to do tonight. Everything counts up until I call night.

Well, my thoughts on Zsand have not changed regardless of my other thoughts and suspicions, I vote to lynch Zsand......I will be back later. Time to fix dinner for the hungry man of the house.....

Ahem! Post number 1100. :silly:

 

[Fishfriend1]

Zs- JL 1004, Ogre 1027, FF 1035, JL 1042, Chaz 1057, Rich 1113, Kash 1138, Lab 1175
DD- Lab 1102, Wiz 1115
Ogre- Zs 1168, Mad 1173, FF 1181, Zaffy 1211

No votes from DD, Fire, Noods, Jb, Rb

NIGHTFALL IN JUST OVER 7 HOURS

I may be a bit late for nightfall depending on the timing of what I have to do tonight. Everything counts up until I call night.

Ok, so if 2 people vote for Ogre we can have a coin flip. I think a coin flip would be best for tonight. If either of them are scum we should see some movement in the voter ranks.

 

[Fishfriend1]

Ahem! Post number 1100. :silly:

Ok, so if 2 people vote for Ogre we can have a coin flip. I think a coin flip would be best for tonight. If either of them are scum we should see some movement in the voter ranks.

In light of that, if 3 people move to Ogre hen we can have a coin flip.