Mafia 72-Vampires game thread

Ice, because Kasta made sense and her post connected a few things in my head that were having trouble connecting.

2H is now just below Kasta. 4th aint that bad :D your below Ice, and Kasta is below you.

More riding in kash's wake, probably to get yourself out from under the spotlight. Sure, my vote is on ice too, but it was there long before she ever posted her findings, and I had my own reasons. Yet you are following her despite the fact that you said you think she could be evil. You're looking more and more like scum with every passing post
 
Kash, just read your posts and your proposition and I find one flaw: How can you be so certain that you and Ice are not on the same side if you are innocent as you claim? Townies cannot communicate and the PR's only can if/when they find eachother?

The reason I'm this certain about is Ice is mainly based on his lack of play. I wasn't sure about that before I pulled his posts because it's easy enough to miss things as we go. So I pulled every one of them to find out what else he had contributed to help us find scum. There was nothing there.

If Ice was innocent, he didn't do squat to actually help us find scum. He didn't challenge anything that got posted (except in regard to himself and his stupid theory). He didn't ask people questions like he normally does. He also didn't comment about the rules or roles or how many vampires there might be, and so on like he does when he's working for the town. He did ID two names as possible vamps but in both cases, I'm leaning them way more innocent than Ice... because there's no case against either of them. Then through the rest of Day 1, all he did was debate his own theory and later he totally misrepresented his actual statements (which Pappy called him on).

We've played lots of games with Ice. He claimed at the start that he just didn't "feel" like playing at first and I don't buy that. Ice didn't have any hesitation pushing specific suspects our way or posting his defense of an indefensible theory. He was well enough "into" the game to lead us the wrong way. And what I think he was actually doing more than anything was lying low and biding his time to help the town as little as he possibly could.
 
Well I certainly don't know which of you to trust and along that line of thinking I can see one worse case scenario that you don't detail in your plan. If we started out with 4 vamps then this could be the last night, and any information gained from staking and innocent has no value. Just to follow that logic for a moment let's say that based on the above we assume you're innocent and vote to stake Ice. There are 13 people left, if five of them are all ready vamps (4 original plus a turn) and we stake an innocent when the vamps turn or kill another then the vamps equal the townies and it's game over. Of course the same is true if your sincere and we stake you and Ice is evil. I'm not saying we shouldn't follow your plan I'm just saying you either haven't thought out all the eventualities or maybe you have and just didn't mention this one.

At the end of the night we do have to do something we can't afford to be indecisive so I'm certainly going to consider your plan very carefully. Just wanted to point out that's it's not completely fool proof.

We really have no solid leads (IMO) for actual suspects we can count on to stake a vampire. I believe all the front runners in yesterday's voting were innocents... and that's usually what we do on Day 1 anyway... while the mafia (vampires in this case) sit back and watch us pick each other off. Given the vote switching and weak cases we're left with from yesterday, I don't see a very clear direction that's going to lead us to stake an actual vampire tonight. We're much more likely to turn against each other... like we've been doing and usually do the first few days in these games.

Look how many people were so certain of their votes on FF yesterday... then a few other names and ideas get tossed around and every last one of them bailed. Odds today are very high we're going to do the same thing all over again. We've already been doing that with all these posts since nightfall.... all we've done was started blaming each other.

Now, if you're right that there were 4 vampires at game start, then you're also right that this plan I've suggested isn't such a good idea. But I disagree with you on that count. There's no way (in my opinion) Lab Rat as game mod would have given the vampire team 4 full members, plus allow them a 50/50 chance every single night to recruit someone else, plus give the lead vampire an additional one-time bite. That makes this a team-building/recruitment game for the evils and that's why I think there were 2 vamps.

Lab Rat was also aware there was quite a lot of discussion how imbalanced the setup was in a previous game... which she commented about in either her sign up thread or the general mafia thread, by stating she'd make sure that wouldn't be the case in her game. Staffing the vampire side with a full team plus let them team-build daily on top of that would have been totally unfair to the town.
 
Just a question, would making it a 50/50 chance (coin flip) be a good idea? Or would that somehow be a ruinous idea?

I don't think it matters whether the outcome of our 2-horse race ends up decided by vote count or coin toss. And frankly, it really doesn't matter which one of us dies. This game isn't about any one individual player (which I pointed out to you before).... it's a team effort. The greatest benefit by doing this is it forces everyone to choose one or the other (me or Ice). And every person's vote will become part of the voting pattern record, bearing their name. Innocents will be torn and it's not easy to choose, that's understandable. But a good number of players already intend to vote me while others are voting Ice. So let's just leave this at that... then throughout the process, everyone gets to post their position. This forces the vampires (at least 3 now) to also take a position, state their reasons, and put their names on it. That is what leads us back to them whether they continue to hide out (after the staked person's role is revealed) or they'll have to defend their own. We learn something useful either way.

The other consideration here I didn't mention before (and this is where Ice will probably complain)... if both Ice and I are up for voting together, then that prevents the vampires from turning either one of us. That's what I realized yesterday when I suddenly drew so many votes just before nightfall. If the vamps intended to turn me (or kill me), those votes on me at the end of the day would have made them choose somebody else instead. Even if my turn had been successful, I was too vocal and too risky for them to want to recruit me to their side because I'm still liable to get lynched the following day. In a team building game, you avoid confrontational recruits who are likely to get themselves killed. It's smarter to recruit someone else better at sitting back and not drawing attention to themselves.

We know they turned Pappy (before the slayer got him) and we know they turned somebody else. If Ice wasn't a vampire already, he (among others) was a very good turn candidate himself.
 
Does that mean I am second? When did that happen?

It happened right about here:

I suspect, from top=Most to bottom=least: Ice, Rich (hasn't really done much but follow the crowd and disagreed with others this game), Kashta (because her big post could just be fluff or distancing or just plain confusing the town). And that's it, other then the suspicion i have for everyone not yet dead.

I looked over your posts cause you were on User_name, and realized that you hadn't helped the town at all. You haven't even tried. Thats why I have you as number 2.

More riding in kash's wake, probably to get yourself out from under the spotlight. Sure, my vote is on ice too, but it was there long before she ever posted her findings, and I had my own reasons. Yet you are following her despite the fact that you said you think she could be evil. You're looking more and more like scum with every passing post

Yes, she could be evil. So could you, so could Rich, so could JB, so could 2hobbies, so could Chill. Anyone and everyone can be evil. The only diff is if you think that the one you are targeting is more evil or more likely to be evil. I think that Ice is evil and Kashta is only possible evil. If Ice turns innocent then i know who to target next.
 
I did most of my disagreeing with you.

Interesting post kash. Works great unless you and Ice are sucking us into one grand finale. I don't think so though. I think we have 3 vampires at most right not. If they started with 3 this game would not have been fair at all.

I agree it would be unfair for them to start with more than one or two players on Day 1. And I don't think Lab Rat would have stacked the numbers in their favor that far.

And yes, my proposition could be nothing but a ruse. Nothing is certain and if you don't hold me as a suspect going into these games, you don't know me well at all. But that's also why I posted the idea right away. We all have today and tomorrow to think it over, talk it through, and decide whether or not it's worth doing.
 
Kashta, I'm with you on most points , but I really need someone to explain the only 2 vampires theory to me. Am I thick or just missing something the rest of you see.
 
It happened right about here:



I looked over your posts cause you were on User_name, and realized that you hadn't helped the town at all. You haven't even tried. Thats why I have you as number 2.



Yes, she could be evil. So could you, so could Rich, so could JB, so could 2hobbies, so could Chill. Anyone and everyone can be evil. The only diff is if you think that the one you are targeting is more evil or more likely to be evil. I think that Ice is evil and Kashta is only possible evil. If Ice turns innocent then i know who to target next.

May I ask what you did, beside your crazy plan which you told us about before you gave it a chance to work, misspellings, and forgetting things.

I forgot the play by play at the end as you tallied every vote and vote change until you knew you were safe, then you no longer cared.

I voted who I thought was guilty, I said so, I said why. I was wrong but I did go by my best guess.
 
Kashta, I'm with you on most points , but I really need someone to explain the only 2 vampires theory to me. Am I thick or just missing something the rest of you see.

If there were three to start with two successful turns they are at 5. A lynch of an innocent leaves 15 players, after night one they would be 2 away from winning. I feel that LR would have not made it that easy for the vamps to win. Therefor they started with 2 and now have 3.
 
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