Mafia #98: The Grinch Returns -- The Play

[Ballyhoo]

I'm throwing my vote now, I read that I'm in the lead with Kash. I'm going to keep my vote from last nightfall and I vote to lynch Pap so i wont UD....still reading

 

[Lady G]

I think it's clear where evil falls on AAF's list between Rich or Bally. My vote will most surely go on Bally - so this clears any question there may be about Rich. For scum, I'm thinking Bally and Lady G. Bally got herself into trouble and that's when Lady G stepped in trying to run interference for her.

2 Bally
3 Lady G
5 Dawg
5 FF
5 Pappy
5 UN
8 Wizard
8 Rich
9 AAF

Trying to figure in Jack's nip makes the middle part more difficult IMO so those are listed alphabetically.

I'm here for a while at least. Will go back and get caught up.

Neither did I, Dawg. You weren't hoping I'd UD instead, were you? :silly:

Just so everyone knows... when I decided to play this time, I didn't know we were going to be audited at work this week. I've had to work - literally - day and night to make sure everything was in order within a real short timeframe.

Now, back to the thread.

Sorry if what I posted about my Day 1 vote confused everyone. Then, not being able to get back to expand my thoughts or answer the questions raised just left that hanging for you all.

I couldn't find a satisfactory suspect, so I went with something fairly random. By that, it's "random" to me whether I pick one reason over another without much conviction either way when it's that early in a game. Anyhow, let me post my thought process for what I probably should have termed more of a process of elimination rather than "random" pick.

1. I read the thread again, couldn't find anything solid (IMO) to place my vote. At the time, there had been an 8-way tie and Labby wanted to use Zaffy's 8-side dice. I figured I'd just randomly pick someone to vote. So I went to random.org and that site wanted me to vote AAF. (Big congrats there, AAF.) I actually didn't like the idea of adding a 9th name to list of vote-getters when the voting was real spread out to begin with.

2. With that in mind, I looked to see who was voting whom and why. The 8-way tie had become a 3-way tie then between UN, Dun, and 2H. At least that development gave us something to look at and I figured there were some options to decide my vote.

Option 1 - Look at the singleton votes for someone hiding out who didn't want to get noticed. There were 2 votes/reasons I thought should be questioned.... Rich voting Pappy for no real reason and 2H voting Rich for being unlynchable. Pappy and Rich are both good players who aren't exactly expendable if they're innocent. And if they're scum, I doubt any of us are gonna spot that from their posts Day 1. One thing I didn't like about the singleton voters as possible suspects was it isn't only scum who tends to hide in a game like this. We have a lot of PRs too who might try to avoid drawing attention to themselves.

Option 2 - Focus on the people who placed a second vote on someone and why..... that was Dun, Dawg, and Ice... the second votes caused a tie. Didn't see anything suspicious there so I was left still with Rich or 2H for a vote or keep looking for something else.

I thought about just picking one of them but felt either vote would be weak/unhelpful. Rich voting a top player without reason wasn't a huge deal... Rich is often a cantankerous player anyway. Him voting Pappy just because isn't unreasonable, from him, and didn't mean Rich must be evil. Same thing with 2H though.... him voting someone for what I termed was a garbage reason isn't uncharacteristic for him, considering his previous choices in other games. In both cases, it was a good "reason" to question these votes, but not a great reason upon which to base a vote.

Option 3 - I looked to see who hadn't voted yet. That was Pappy, me, and LG. No big deal there. It wasn't scummy to not have a vote in yet.... though nightfall was coming up and there wasn't much for us to go on.

This is when I wondered what would happen if someone broke the tie and I decided to just pick one of the 3 randomly. I looked at UN and really just hated his OMGUS vote/attitude. I felt he could/should have tried to actually help the town better than that. Dun didn't strike me as being suspicious over the comments he'd made so I had no reason to pick him. 2H was still there but I'd already decided voting him for his unlynchable vote wasn't a very strong case for scum. It's more an assessment of his general game play.

So yes, it was an elimination process I went through to narrow things down, but voting UN (for being OMGUSSY) instead of voting Rich (for voting a good player) or 2H (for voting good player) seemed like a random/arbitrary thing to me, even on Day 1.



2H citing a garbage reason for voting someone isn't all that unusual. I felt it worth asking about but not vote-worthy all by itself. Besides, there were a lot of non-reasons given for day 1 votes..... not just from 2H. Why would I single him out for that and ignore all the others? When I didn't see anything worthwhile looking at the votes/reasons, I decided to just break the tie instead. The tied players were 2H, Dun, and UN..... so that's where my pick fell.



No, not at all. Seriously, it was day 1. I could've voted anyone for any reason at all.... so could Ice, so could most anyone else in the game. I just felt adding another useless vote to a pile of other useless votes just because we can think up a defendable reason if questioned later was lame. Breaking the tie seemed like a better strategy at the time, particularly as day 1 ties are notorious for including nothing but innocent townies against other innocent townies in the running. This made it more important for me to break the tie to see if I could shake things up.

1 - A lot of other people gave us non-reasons for their votes, too, Pappy. So no. I didn't think voting 2H for that would help us any more than another equally weak vote on many other choices who were just as likely innocent as scum. Of course, a 2H vote at the time would also have broken the tie which I thought might prove useful so yes, that would also have accomplished the tie break. Ultimately, I didn't know who was scum, didn't have an actual suspect to vote, and picked UN over 2H. I could have just as easily voted 2H over UN. At the time, both were pretty much the same to me.

2 - Pappy, your second question there has me stumped. I could've sworn I'd seen something in the thread where Dun's reason for voting UN could have also applied to FF but Dun overlooked that. Now, I can't find it. Whatever I was thinking must not have come out right. I have no idea now.

The only thing that comes close is this post from Dawg. I may have misread Dawg's post.

Lady G, I've posted now the process I went through to determine where to vote. See if that helps explain my choice better.

As for timing, I bounce around a lot when I'm at the thread and walk away from the computer, then come back to it. I read stuff I agree with all the time and don't always say so... usually because I'm looking at other things while new posts are continuing.

What bothered me the most about Rich and 2H's votes weren't the "just because" reason Rich gave or the "unlynchable" remark 2H made.... it was the fact that both were willing to sacrifice high caliber players right from the git go for no real reason. And with no conviction whatsoever that either of them were actually evil. Looking back through that part of the thread at a later time, I noticed no one else had made that point in the same way I saw it, so that's when I added my remarks to what had already been discussed.

It's too late tonight for me to go on pulling posts and such, so let me add this. What I don't understand about Bally is there was one lynch and one hit during nightfall. In order for Bally to even speculate the hit may have come from Frosty instead of the Grinch, Bally would ALSO have to imagine the mafia team neglected to send in their hit. Even if she skimmed the description so she didn't notice "evil was lurking" in the writeup.... a solitary hit from Frosty that night would have been possible ONLY if the mafia didn't hit anyone at all. It's very rare when that ever happens at all.

I could be wrong and missed something...but I believe these (besides her vote post) are Kash's post since nightfall....where am I missing this kicking of bushes and hunting of scum?

 

[Lady G]

I'm throwing my vote now, I read that I'm in the lead with Kash. I'm going to keep my vote from last nightfall and I vote to lynch Pap so i wont UD....still reading

You do realize it is pretty much a tie between you and Kash right? Do you think Kash is innocent?

 

[Ballyhoo]

You do realize it is pretty much a tie between you and Kash right? Do you think Kash is innocent?

I have no idea about Kash, I only know myself.

 

[Ballyhoo]

AAF - Very quiet in the beginning, seems to have picked up and asking more question/getting more involved. Can’t quite sure if he was prodded to in the den or just in the thread. Claims to be innocent
Dawg - Very focused on Wiz, I don’t see his logic but I skimmed greatly.
FF - Posting long winded threads, from what i remember of FF this takes true focus for him, he claimed to be short on time, not sure which days that effected though. Was a little OMGUSy at the beginning. His reasoning for questioning seems kinda hinky in places.
Kash - Her explinations are loooooong, i am greatly laking the focus to read them, too much going on in my house right now. Her reasoning for voting UN I really don’t get but I never really understand what she says.
LG - Is being very helpful and available, almost over the top helpful so I’m not really sure.
Pap - I am not sure how to feel about him. What ever he is now he is the opposite of what he was last nightfall......
Rich - besides that post I brought up I don’t have anything.
Un- Haven’t really gotten much for him, he’s the same old sarcastic pushy Un, so no read
Wiz - My gut says innocent, but I have OFTEN been fooled by Wiz

 

[Lady G]

I have no idea about Kash, I only know myself.

Fair enough, do you believe AFF that he got that list?

 

[Ballyhoo]

Fair enough, do you believe AFF that he got that list?

Let me go back and find the post again and I'll answer

 

[allaboutfish]

AAF - Very quiet in the beginning, seems to have picked up and asking more question/getting more involved. Can’t quite sure if he was prodded to in the den or just in the thread. Claims to be innocent
Dawg - Very focused on Wiz, I don’t see his logic but I skimmed greatly.
FF - Posting long winded threads, from what i remember of FF this takes true focus for him, he claimed to be short on time, not sure which days that effected though. Was a little OMGUSy at the beginning. His reasoning for questioning seems kinda hinky in places.
Kash - Her explinations are loooooong, i am greatly laking the focus to read them, too much going on in my house right now. Her reasoning for voting UN I really don’t get but I never really understand what she says.
LG - Is being very helpful and available, almost over the top helpful so I’m not really sure.
Pap - I am not sure how to feel about him. What ever he is now he is the opposite of what he was last nightfall......
Rich - besides that post I brought up I don’t have anything.
Un- Haven’t really gotten much for him, he’s the same old sarcastic pushy Un, so no read
Wiz - My gut says innocent, but I have OFTEN been fooled by Wiz

thats weird bc alot of people are saying un is acting different not the same.

 

[Ballyhoo]

thats weird bc alot of people are saying un is acting different not the same.

Those are my very brief thoughts

 

[dirtydawg10]

I agree Bally has done nothing, but can you show me where this "bush kicking" is from Kash?

I could be wrong and missed something...but I believe these (besides her vote post) are Kash's post since nightfall....where am I missing this kicking of bushes and hunting of scum?

lol...granted it is by far not her best work but she has been looking into Bally and yourself as of late. Her thoughts on you are a bit OMGUSy I guess. My post does not suggest she has been the great "Hunter of Scum" as your last post suggest but some is better than none IMO. Maybe I should have said she has been doing some "Bonsai Kicking" since you may be right on it not being a full sized bush.