I wanted to go back and check the Wycco-rocker connection. I copy-pasted back and forth from Word so the font might get screwed up.
Night 1
... the reason I ask is that it looks like there are those trying to lynch Zaffy and those trying to get him "not lynched" by placing suspicion on Rocker.
Either group could be mafia... I think it safe to assume one of those two groups are mafia... therefore I put close to 50% chance on each of Zaffy and Rocker being Mafia.
Maybe the 3 votes for Zaffy were random first day events... or maybe a mafia conspiracy. Maybe trying to place blame on Rocker is to prevent a mafioso being lynched... or maybe it's real suspicion on rocker.
If two people both have the same vote count and both get lynched (if that's how the rules work)- it would work out statistically better for the innocents if the vote is co-ordinated so the late votes through retraction, etc, so that they both end up getting lynched... even if one is innocent, as long as the other is mafia it is to the innocent's benefit is it not since we outnumber them.
Statistically to show my point... say if there started out 2 mafia and 10 innocents (just as a sample) - 1/5 is mafia... if one of eached get lynched it goes down to 1 mafia 9 innocents- 1/9 are mafia.
Here is Wycco’s first post about people supposedly protecting Zaffy.
I would like to officially rescind my vote for JPap and switch it to Zaffy.
I just get the feeling there seems to be a co-ordinated movement to rescue Zaffy from being lynched.
Again, thinks there is this “movement” to save Zaffy.
What evidence do you have for this great rescue plan?
How many folks have we not heard from yet? It must be quite a few.
Rich calls him out.
Besides playfull bickering between certain people- the main early debate seems to be around whether it is a co-ordinated effort to get Zaffy removed or not- and whether we should vote for Rocker to be removed since he was the vote to put Zaffy ahead of everyone else.
That made me initially think that either Rocker or Zaffy were likely to be a mafia man. The fact that no-one has tried to dissuade anyone from voting for Rocker makes me think he might be innocent... thus makes me lean towards Zaffy.
Don't know for sure... but I'd rather go with my gut than it be a tie and a random generator pick randomly.
It just seems people want us to not vote for Zaffy- and noone cares about Rocker which makes me think he is innocent...
Until re
Oooops... helps if I finish my sentence...
Until recently I thought Rocker might be guilty- but the recent comments about "X" # of people think the Zaffy vote is suspicious made me think that Zaffy is being protected.
I might change my mind again- but at this moment I've made a 180 swing and now think Zaffy is mafia.
So initially Zaffy OR rocker was mafia, but now mainly Zaffy (hence the vote) and rocker might be innocent. Note that there was no such “debate”…wycco was pretty much the only one who thought that Zaffy was being saved.
I'm fairly sure that either Rocker OR Zaffy is mafia. I hope I'm right. If Zaffy turns out to be Mafia- then we know that those that protected him are likely also Mafia.
If Rocker turns out to be mafia though unfortunately it doesn't mean much about the first two votes against Zaffy because prior to Rocker he wasn't a main contender and Rocker could simply have picked an innocent who looked most likely to get lynched.
Dunno... impossible to tell- gut tells me Zaffy though. That and- effectively it only took one vote to put Zaffy as a leading candidate- it took two three to catch Rocker up to him. (I can't remember if he was already on a vote or not and am too lazy to look back and check).
Then Zaffy OR rocker as mafia. Gut still says Zaf though.
Now to night 2
I vote to Lynch Zaffy.
still going with my gut.
if you are all asking why im not posting, it is because ive been verry busy working at a threshing show!
here is the link if you are still skeptical.
http://www.jordannews.com/news/acti...stival-celebrates-agricultural-traditions-108
my aunt runs the food stand and ive been busy since thursday.
BTW: i just got caught up with all the posts, and my first vote on Zaffy was just a random vote, but the more i read the more i wanted to keep the vote.
Rocker votes Zaffy for the first post. Again no reason and no response to why he didn't answer the question about his first vote earlier.
Were people voting against Kashta simply because she had been Mafia in previous rounds... that is crazy- it's all decided randomly right?
I still think either Zaffy or Rocker are guilty (but not both)- I'm still leaning towards Zaffy of the two.
I'm extremely suspicious of LuvBugs.
I'm keeping my eye on Noodles, Rich, and JPap... although if certain other people are found guilty then my suspicion will go up... if not will go down.
Right now though- One way or another I want to know if Zaffy is guilty- I think there is a slightly better than 50% chance he is... so...
I VOTE TO LYNCH ZAFFY
(sorry to lead a charge against ya Zaff, nothing personal)
Again, Zaffy OR rocker are mafia, but probably Zaf. Somehow Luv is added to the mix, as well as a few other lower suspects.
Do we know how many Mafioso there are? Or does only the narrator know that?
At this early stage if I had to draw up a list of Mafia- I'd say 4 or 5 out of:
Zaffy, JPap, LuvBugs, possibly Plant, possibly Rich, possibly noodles.
It may be entirely coincidental but they seem to be on a similar wavelength... I do think odds are good that Zaffy, JPap and LuvBugs are all Mafia though.
Wait…where did rocker go? Zaffy-Jpap-Luv are top three but no mention of him. And now plant is added to the mix?
im voting for Zaffy because i think she is mafia, she just seems scummy to me. and so does JPAP for defending her so much!
so for now my list is
Zaffy
Jpap
luvbugz
Right after that rocker comes out with the
exact same list as wycco's top 3!
I agree that Jpap seems desparate to distance himself from Bugz. he is definately moving up on my list.
I also a little concerned with how well Wycco, the self proclaimed novice, is playing. A natural or coached? hhhmmmm
Noods says that wycco might be coached.
i hate to do this but... i agree with you on the Wycco thing noods.
Rocker sort of agrees, but no elaboration
How are you so sure that 4 out of 5 of your 6 choices are Mafia?
You're supposed to offer evidence to your claims, unless you're just taking orders of course.
Zaffy asks Wycco to explain the choices…
Early on I noticed that JPap seemed to be defending you- the whole you vs Rocker thing seemed very suspicious- with JPap, and then several others joining in to try and shift the blame onto Rocker seemed to be a group effort.
There also seemed to be an effort later on when it turned into a Kashta Vs Luv affair to protect Luvbugz... Kashta turned out to be innocent. Jpap was seeming to side with Bugz and yourself... add that to the suspicons I already had about you made me think that the 3 of you were in on it together.
The rest of the people I have mentioned seemed to also at one point or another seem to be putting doubt on the above three's involvement in the mafia.
They could be innocents who truly believe that after following that path or reason... OR they could be mafia trying to protect you. That's why I say "4 or 5" of the following. I don't know which are and which arn't.
There is a good chance either yourself or Luvbugz will be lynched... in which case we'll know your mafia ties or innocence- IF one of you get lynched and turn out to be innocent that would make it seem very strongly like I myself would be a suspect for trying to group "innocents" together.
I'm willing to put myself on the line for that. I doubt a mafia member would do the same so strongly if they knew one were innocent.
Noodles is very clever- she always says "so and so" may be guilty, refering but then goes ahead and votes for someone else- as if she's trying to seem uncertain... yet she always ends up on the Zaffy/LuvBugs side of any discussion.
If I get taken out on a hit one night- and Zaffy or LuvBugz turns out to be mafia- I suggest that that be taken into account.
I am a newbie at this- but that doesn't mean I'm not paying attention! Nor does it mean I'm any good- I could be missing the plot completely and sticking my foot in my mouth big time!
Wycco’s response shows that it all stems from the supposed protection of Zaffy. Remember before that Wycco still thought that there was a possibility that rocker was the guilty one of the two. Now it is elevated to not only was Zaffy a mafia member that was protected, but he names people who "came to his rescue." Basically anyone who might have disagreed with Wycco's reasoning. Also says he named Luv because I took her side…I believe I asked for wycco to point that out but he never did. Very interesting that Luv’s earlier posts were not mentioned as a reason, as in the ones that everyone else thought were suspicious. Looks as if Wycco only suspects Luv because of some sort of protection on me and zaffy’s part.
retract my vote for Zaffy and vote to lynch Jen4kngs.
aslong as we are throwing out stupid votes with no reasoning!!!
Rather than going with his gut, rocker votes randomly. A good possibility that he was told a second night’s vote on zaffy for no solid reason looked to suspicious. Remember though that he said me and Zaffy were mafia to him.
Actually, you only started pointing fingers at me after I started pointing fingers at your team mates! It was because you're trying to defend all the obvious targets that you are included on the list.
I may actually change my vote to LuvBugz- specially since my support for voting against Zaffy seems to be turning south... more likely to get LuvBugz lynched than Zaffy.
I changed my vote last time, and I won't hesitate doing it again if need be.
I stand by my calls- and I fully recognise that should I turn out to be wrong, and Zaffy and LB are innocent I should be a prime suspect.
Are you willing to state that if Zaffy and LuvBugz turn out to be mafia that you should be considered a prime suspect?
States that he might switch to Luv. (entire post directed at noods btw)
Well, since I have voted for Luvbugz, why would I claim to be a suspect if she turns up mafia? That makes no sense. And what team mates would you be referring to? Who am I protecting/defending? Seems that you are trying hard to protect Rocker....
I have stated who I think has been suspicious and my votes have been placed on someone from that list. I think you are starting to get a little nervous. Regardless of what Bugz' role is I think you are a good candidate for Mafia. You appear to have been coached, you have avoided voting for Bugz, who 90% of the players seem to agree is scum, you seem to be protecting rocker with the rocker/zaffy omgus thing. I bought into that whole deal yesterday cause I was not comfy with the train that happened so fast on bugz, but not seeing the rocker/zaffy thing today........ you on the other hand seem hellbent on taking zaffy out and protecting rocker...why?
Noods responds
You think I'm protecting Rocker? He has stated he is suspicious of me- I'm not protecting Rocker as much as I am accusing Zaffy. Rocker seems too random to me to be guilty.
You voted for LuvBugs? I'll have to go back and double check that.
Wycco says that rocker said he was suspicious of him. I’ve yet to find that post other than the one where he half-heartedly agreed with noodles. Not exactly full blown suspicion…
Even more importantly, look at his reasoning for…”I'm not protecting Rocker as much as I am accusing Zaffy” How would that same reasoning not work for the opposite? Wyccos whole suspicion of Zaffy is based on people rescuing him, yet it had nothing to do with Zaffy, but rocker.s vote
LMAO... Ooops sorry, OK never mind- I thought I recalled you voting for someone who has stayed out of the spotlight which made me more suspicious... you did but retracted... OK... so now I suspect you a little less... I've still got my eye on you though! Don't think I don't!
I'm still fairly sure on the axis of evil: LuvBugz, JPap, Zaffy - although to be honest I'm least sure on LB of the three- although I might still change my vote to her since the campaign for JP and Zaffy are not happening... who's gonna give us a vote count? I'm too lazy!
The one person I think is least likely to be Mafia is Ogre... oh, and Kashta!
Still sure about the three and again he might switch votes to her because he can’t get me or Zaf lynched.
I'm ALWAYS considering changing my vote... I've been thinking LB is guilty- and no I'm not trying to protect her- but I'm amazed at how much she has a lead and can't believe that everyone can be so unanimous...
That said, as you said, still a while to go right- EOD tomorrow is the cut-off right?
I may consider switching my vote- of Jpap, Zaffy and LB I think all three are guilty- but of the three she is least likely mafia- imo...
Still suspicious of the same three people, might switch but now is less suspicious of Luv because of how many votes she had...
I wondered if that comment would upset people- almost didn't make it. For the record I also think you're innocent Ice! Mainly because a lot of what you say coincides with what I've been saying...
My suspicions:
Very likely Mafia:
JPap, Zaffy
Likely Mafia:
LB
Possibly Mafia:
Noodles, Plantling, Rich, Rocker
Unlikely Mafia:
FireDance, Ice, Ogre
Everyone else I'm unsure of at this point.
Wait a minute…how did rocker end up there???
I suspect I'll be a prime candidate for the mafia to try and get lynched tomorrow- due to a) I've drawn attention to myself so some innocents may consider me. b) I think I've made myself a minor PITA to them.
LOL…just thought this was ironic.
Sorry all, I am here. Just got home after a long day. Babies are at the grandparents and I am supposed to be heading out for a concert, but I might just stay home. Won the tickets, so no money lost. My house is so quiet I don't know what to do!
Anyways, I am thinking about switching my vote to Wycco. I don't like the way he is trying to buddy up with Ice and Ogre. Are you scared to have them come after you? Anyone who DOESN'T have Ice and Ogre on their mafia lists are not playing smart. Both are really good players and should be kept an eye on at all times. Also, you seem to have a really good grasp of the game and seem like you maybe getting coached from somewhere.
Luv posts about maybe switching to Wycco. I see some possible distancing here as Luv was almost a sure fire goner coupled with Wycco naming Luv but not wanting to switch.
when the hell did we start voting for a person because they had the most votes for them? if you ask me, you should be voting for the person you think is guilty, not the person who has the most votes.
I retract my vote for jen4kngs and vote to lynch jpappy789.
Rocker votes me. Funny that he claims people should vote for their top suspect yet threw out the vote on Zaffy (his top suspect) and switched to jen just to be random. Hypocritical and scumtastic.
I vote to lynch jpappy789
I didn't know I was playing this game until a few minutes ago.
I vote to lynch jpappy789...
That vote could switch based on the day....though switching late can cuase some folks issues....
Couple more on me within a short time.
I retract my vote for Zaffy and vote to lynch jpappy789.
Wycco finally switches, to me though.
Dude that is not how the game is set up....It does suck that they are not playing....almost every game there are UD's it is just a part of the game...As JS has said everyone has been sent a PM at the game start..that either means they have not logged on to AC, which another PM isint going to do jack or they have logged in checked their PM and don't care to play. For all we know they could all be mafia, or could be half and half or all be innocent. I would just leave well enough alone and get on with playing rather than *****ing about the rules.
MC’s post to Wycco about the whole UD thing…
why are you so pissy? bad time of the month???
Rocker feels the need to step in and defend Wycco/attack Mc
Here rocker agrees with Wycco’s reasoning about the UDs.
Woohoo! More random votes for me!
Wycco, I do not understand why you would switch. You were 50-50 on both Zaffy and rocker earlier but was leaning more towards Zaffy it seemed...wouldn't someone who has been talking probability and statistics almost the entire game go with who they thought was most likely mafia? Or did Ogre tell you to jump on me so he didn't have to?
I question wycco for jumping on me.
I'm still being statistical about it... I see you and Zaffy as lead candidates- LuvBugs as third most likely.
As things stood you had 4 votes- Zaffy had 3 (including mine). By switching my vote to you- you now have 5- making you a solid 2nd place candidate so should LB avoid a lynching- you're next most likely at this point.
A vote for Zaffy is like voting for the green party in a general election... it's not going to acheive anything at this point in time.
Wycco says me and Zaf are top 2 for him but I’m more likely to get lynched. Only problem I see is why not seal the deal on Luv? There had to have been a lot of switching or new votes for me to be put on top so Wycco using his vote as a backup make no sense.
I also think it is worth considering that he knew rocker would switch to me, thus he would have an excuse to not vote Luv by putting me in second place...either way his reason for not voting Luv and me instead is weak.
Lastly, Night 3
Wow! We got at least 2 mafia. excellent! Sorry to lose Plant though......
I do not want to appear to be "following" but I agree on the Wycco vote. I have not liked the way he pushed the rocker/zaffy thing so hard and seemed to skirt the issue of voting for Bugz when so many of us were convinced of her role...I need to review more in the morning, but for now -
I vote to lynch Wycco
Noods votes for wycco…
this seems kindy fishy to me (please excuse the pun!) it is like she is talking to the innocents. something doesnt fit right with me.
I vote to lynch noodles62
Rocker votes noods for no understandable reason other than something doesn’t sit right. Interestingly enough, it’s not a vote for Zaffy or me. Seems too much like an OMGUS vote for his teammate instead.
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I think the wycco-rocker connection is pretty clear. Wycco fumbled around with rockers name as a suspect for a while at first calling him most likely innocent, next maybe mafia, then not even mentioning him, and finally back on the list but lower than other people. Wycco’s posts also show an unwillingness to vote Luv, even though he said he would possibly switch there. Instead, he lowered her to a second tier suspect and voted for me. Reasoning: so I would stay in second. Lastly, you can see rocker not do much other than throw random votes despite having suspects and pop in to subtly help wycco.
I’m comfortable with my vote on Wycco right now but would be willing to vote rocker instead.
Btw, just noticed that smilies don't transfer over completely from quoted text so that is why there are none...