Mafia 58-

[jpappy789]

Oh come on, Jpappy. If you and Annie are on the same communicating team together you'd bring lukewarm suspicion against him because you have to... mafia players acting toward the same goal have to distance themselves from each other somehow, hoping the rest of us won't catch onto the fact that you're actually working together.

That's why you have to make your voting with Zaffy to kill Gunslinger out to be merely a random guess. If your real motivation in breaking that tie was to save your teammate Annie from a possible coin toss, you can't admit that to us.

That possibility is also why you have to still carry Annie at the bottom of your suspect list. So none of the rest of us will suspect you killed Gun to save Annie... on purpose. And that's what it seems you're still doing in this post from earlier today. Here you list DD, Rich, and MC as the real players you'd like to see hang. And you have to still include Annie at the bottom for distancing purposes.



So let's forget Woodward for a moment and look at who you're going after now. According to the vote tally Zaffy posted for us, both you and Dawg are currently voting DD.

If your vote yesterday for Gunslinger was only slightly more appealing to you than voting Annie for lynching... why aren't you voting Annie today over DD?

Lukewarm? I brought attention to Annie in the first place Kash. I could have easily glazed over it and just posted "oh yeah thats weird" and added Annie to the bottom of my list when someone else caught it. Oh yeah, it's all part of the distancing plan.

Obviously my suspect list changed Kash, do you expect me to go off of just the same info we had yesterday? I'm keeping Annie mainly because I still find his first post suspicious so I'm not going to drop him off my list.

The odd thing is you suspect this huge elaborate plot that the mafia tried to save Wood when there where certain people who barely acknowledged Wood in the first place.

I have to honestly ask you this: how often do mafia put into place a plan on Day 1, in your experience? More accurately, how often have your theories been correct? Actually, don't answer that last one. I understand kicking bushes but you fail to see the other side and come up with irrational excuses to try to justify your blind approach to this situation.

I have to say that the most successful mafia teams I have been on leave no connections. No point in distancing because people can easily interpret every little conversation or suspicion as such.

A plan to save two teammates on the same day is foolish. Not even two teammates as Wood would just be a strong suspicion.

I feel that your response will be something to the effect of "obviously you would say something like this to cover your tracks" or "I can't trust what you're saying"...

 

[ZSandmann]

Sorry everyone I told you you wouldn't see me this weekend. I hate that I missed that spectacular show of stellar Mafia play that Woodward threw down, that's a new classic. I've read quickly up to date but need to reread before I can begin to make much of a case. I will be putting a vote out though just in case I don't make it back before Night tomorrow.

Okay, my job has been busy lately, so the only time I have to get on is when I get home. But here's some thoughts I've had in looking the thread over. I've been looking at rich quite a bit for reasons I hope will become clear.





Normal first couple posts.



Now it starts to get interesting... Ogre points out Woody's now infamous third vote on Zaffy.



Rich's first post of any real content. Seems to me like he found a reason to post (the vote), and then added a subtle deflection from Woody's action.



Again, deflection.



This is rich's response to Woody naming him. Don't get me wrong. Woody was a non-communicator so I give no stock to the names because he mentioned them. However I'm looking at reactions. Rich makes light of it and barely even responds. I'd have responded to that...



See bold above. You were right Jpap... had my time line mixed up. Sorry.



This is a side note, but Ogre, can you explain why we get less info from lynchings? I don't get what you're saying.



The drama builds after Woody comes clean. Rich starts to distance himself. Again, very subtle.



Contrast Noods'sssss response to rich's. This actually has me leaning noods a little innocent.

Rich taking a stand and kicking some bushes!

Wow, a lot has gone on, and if I'm not mistaken, you've played before. You have nothing to offer the town? At all? Really?

Really?



I wish I had quoted DD's response... but thanks rich!! :clap: Good effort bud!

I guess this is a dramatic way to say that rich seems to be really laying low. He's posting just enough to try and have a subtle influence without really committing or contributing to anything. Certainly not the town. He's distracting people from something that turned out to be right on, and totally downplaying stuff that anyone else would at least react to. Just seems scummy to me.

So, for un-townsmanly conduct, I vote to lynch rich311k.

I'll be back on when I can. Sorry for not being around more, but Tuesday and Wednesday are my days off, so I should be on a bit more conveniently.

This post strikes me as someone wanting to look helpful with a nice long post that is all over the place. Since jbradt hasn't been on many folks' radar yet I wanted to toss them out there for inspection. Is this post helpful or just smoke?

I vote to lynch jbradt

 

[Kashta]

Breaking up Dawgs full quote here to answer in between the paragraphs.

Right...and as I stated when I voted he seemed as suspect if not more suspect than Gun and Annie to me. Mostly because he had done basically the same thing as the other two yet no one else was talking about him. Your vote stayed on Wood even when it was a foregone conclusion that he would be dead at nightfall.

Close, but not quite. My original vote was Zaffy (random... for not liking his avatar). Then after both you and Wood voted him too (creating a real early train), you two made me nervous about it and I bailed off Zaffy and retracted mine. I had named you as a suspect for being the first to put out a second vote on someone... but later named Wood as my likely vote later as things develop because of this 3rd vote there and wacky posting. But I hadn't actually voted Woodward yet... not until I caught up again in the thread the following day. (Probably around 2-3 pm Pacific time.)

I was convinced he was mafia which is why I voted for him in the first place. You waited until he said he was going to UD then you decided to vote for him. If you were so convinced he was mafia why did you wait until he said he was going to UD to vote for him?

No, I didn't wait around for anything.. at that time it was happening, I wasn't here at all.

When I got back to the thread that following day, I had mountain of posts to catch up on. Which I did. I read through all that stuff from Woody after the fact as I was backtracking in the thread. Along the way, I jotted down a few notes.... and when I thought I had it all figured out (starting to think he was probably mafia), I got to his "I'm going to UD" post. Well, that changed just about everything I was planning to post. So I had to go back through it all again... checking to see if there was anything else important that I'd missed before. And wondering what to do about that later development in relation to the impression I was getting leading up to it. That's when I also saw everyone's immediate reaction to his announcement (or bluffing) and that's when I also had to decide whether to vote him or not.

My conclusion going through it all again one more time was... okay, I'm still going to vote him but will switch to someone else after Ice confirms the guy really did quit and he's no longer able to avoid the UD.

So yes.. my post didn't hit the thread until after most of that had already occurred real time. But for me, it took a long time for me to decide which role I believed Woody was in. And yes, much of the way I reacted to that THEN was based on already seeing how many people retracted their votes against Woody all around the same time. I didn't think that response was prudent, wise, or particularly pro-town. So I countered what little I could at the time by voting Woody myself. I wanted to keep him in the running for lynching in case the idiot was trying to fool us with a fake claim that he was "going to" UD.

If you were so convinced he was mafia why did you post this?

This was where I said (to Jpappy) that it took me a long time to decide whether Woody was evil or innocent... which I've just answered already.

Jpappy (and most others) dealt with Woody and his crap as it was happening. I came along to that point in the thread after-the-fact.

It doesn't sound like you were convinced to me Kash.

Dawg... like everyone else in this game... you're going to form your own conclusions based on reasons of your own. And a lot of this is determined by which side of the fence you're sitting on. Whether you are pro-town or mafia will make a huge difference how you decide to read me or wish to characterize my role in this game to everyone else.

Under the circumstances, I've come out with my own theory which brings you under suspicion. Naturally, you have no choice but to defend your innocence to me and everyone else so you won't get lynched... whether you're mafia or not. And part of doing involves casting whatever doubts you can find about me along the way.... which I fully expected from each of you when I posted my ideas earlier today.

You still haven't answered this question...

Okay. Read below. (Pulled the full quote Dawg quoted.)

As far as your other comments about a supposed "mafia team"...is it typical for mafia to follow each other openly in posts and have a similar voting record in order to hide their allegiances or is it easier for mafia to hide by being all over the map? If you believe the first part is a better strategy then you should vote for Noods and Rich right now because Wood said they were backing him up

No Dawg, I disagree completely with the point you're trying to make here. This isn't the typical minority (25% percent) mafia team who all communicate and therefore know going into the game who the evil players are (them) and who all the innocents are (the townies). In those games, it's crucial for them to cover up their connection by going out their way to scatter votes all over the place and create minor (faked) squabbles to distance themselves from each other. In some cases, those mafia teams even choose a sacrificial goat from among their teammates to make some of the scum side look even more innocent by working publicly to lynch the person. Basic strategy stuff for a typical mafia team.

In this game.. it's purely a 50-50 shot which side any person is on. Half the players ARE mafia and can easily coordinate their activities more distantly as long as they can pick up a fairly good read what their other like-minded teammates might be up to. And only 3 people on that team can even talk to each other. They also get no investigations (they can share with the whole team) and they don't need to scatter their votes around so carefully because they're not as closely connected in the first place.

If I was on the mafia side this time around.. I wouldn't worry so much about scattering the scum team's voting around in this game... because there are so many of them (half the playing field) and because they're largely disconnected already.

What my priority would be instead is focusing on who I believed my NON-communicating teammates might be... then doing all I could to support them, protect them, and vote in agreement with them as often as possible.... and try to vote the same way for different reasons. If that meant voting alongside a fellow teammate.. absolutely. There isn't the same risk doing that in this game.

Further... at the time I finally got here today to post all that stuff about my neither Jpappy, you, Zaff, or Annie had come under any suspicion whatsoever as possibly working together. So keeping your activities separate was an NOT issue for you yet. And I don't believe you (collectively) expected someone like me was going to post a theory about you being connected like I did.

 

[Kashta]

Lukewarm? I brought attention to Annie in the first place Kash. I could have easily glazed over it and just posted "oh yeah thats weird" and added Annie to the bottom of my list when someone else caught it. Oh yeah, it's all part of the distancing plan.

Not with any real credibility, no. For any of us to believe it's legit, you need to build a seemingly real case that's not likely to create any long-term damage. Annie not posting much can be easily rectified by Annie himself whenever he feels like jumping into the game and posting more. So it's a safe enough accusation to leave hanging..... at least as long as the "team" was able to divert last night's lynch to someone other than Annie.

Obviously my suspect list changed Kash, do you expect me to go off of just the same info we had yesterday? I'm keeping Annie mainly because I still find his first post suspicious so I'm not going to drop him off my list.

Okay. So we'll watch over the course of the next few days who actually votes for whom.. and why. Whatever connections exist or don't exist should become more clear as we continue on. I know I'm going to watch for further signs of agreement or disagreement between you and Zaffy... between you and Dawg... and between you and Annie. And I'm also going to continue to look for other subtle clues on other possible connections between players in this game. Whatever else I notice, I'll post about.

Eventually... either you, Dawg, Zaffy, or Annie is going to get lynched or be killed by a hit. And that's when we'll find out how solid my theory is or whether I was completely wrong about this.

The odd thing is you suspect this huge elaborate plot that the mafia tried to save Wood when there where certain people who barely acknowledged Wood in the first place.

There's nothing wildly elaborate about a few players starting off the game and taking an opportunity to vote and post about someone clearly doing stupid things to draw those votes and all that suspicion in the first place. Then at some point realizing... oh crap, the idiot newb is probably one of ours. No one jumped in trying to defend Woody. THAT would have been foolish. But it's real easy to retract those votes for plausible reasons and go hunting other innocents to build cases on instead.

I have to honestly ask you this: how often do mafia put into place a plan on Day 1, in your experience? More accurately, how often have your theories been correct? Actually, don't answer that last one. I understand kicking bushes but you fail to see the other side and come up with irrational excuses to try to justify your blind approach to this situation.

I don't believe this was a mafia plan on Day 1 and it was obviously not planned at all. Woody was non-communicating and just started making garbage posts all on his own.

I have to say that the most successful mafia teams I have been on leave no connections. No point in distancing because people can easily interpret every little conversation or suspicion as such.

Okay, well in my experience with these games after playing about 10 of them or so... it's worked out that someone on the mafia side has pretended to point fingers at fellow teammates quite often... either to make them seem pro-town when they're not or to make it appear they are kicking the bushes when the opposite is actually true. Your mileage may vary.

A plan to save two teammates on the same day is foolish. Not even two teammates as Wood would just be a strong suspicion.

In this game, the mafia isn't able to strategize or plan things out in advance like they normally would. It's going to take a lot more finesse and subtlety than that for the scum side to win this one because you're all having to feel your way through without the benefit of much planning or coordination ahead of time.

You and I obviously disagree on a few things about playing a mafia role in THIS format, Pappy.... for one reason.... or another.

I feel that your response will be something to the effect of "obviously you would say something like this to cover your tracks" or "I can't trust what you're saying"...

Actually, no. But if I could post the response I'd like to (and get away with it)... you'd have a good laugh. :

 

[jbradt]

Sorry everyone I told you you wouldn't see me this weekend. I hate that I missed that spectacular show of stellar Mafia play that Woodward threw down, that's a new classic. I've read quickly up to date but need to reread before I can begin to make much of a case. I will be putting a vote out though just in case I don't make it back before Night tomorrow.



This post strikes me as someone wanting to look helpful with a nice long post that is all over the place. Since jbradt hasn't been on many folks' radar yet I wanted to toss them out there for inspection. Is this post helpful or just smoke?

I vote to lynch jbradt

Z... For clarification, I'm a dude. Also, thanks for calling me out. I just wouldn't feel right about getting through 2 days without someone voting for me. :nilly:

Look at my post about Woody from day 1. It was the same sort of thing. That's how I play. I wait for something to strike me as odd, then I go after it like a puppy with a frisbee. If you question my loyalty, look at the vote. I found someone I believed to be a baddy, and I voted for him and kept my vote there. I'll continue to play this way, because it's how I feel I can be helpful to the town. I follow what I find interesting and put it out there for everyone to see.


To answer your question directly: we won't know if my post is helpful or smoke until we find out rich's role. But it's how I saw it at the time. If any of this makes me seem scummy to you, continue to waste your vote on me.

But I also have to wonder if I'm on to something with rich, and now you're trying to deflect it to me... any thoughts on why it might feel that way?

 

[jbradt]

Jbradt, if you're so sure that Rich distanced himself and tried to deflect/downplay suspicion against Woodward... well, then how do you feel about the way Jpappy, Dawg, Annie, and Zaffy possibly did this too.. while also pulling the pressure of their votes off Woodward at the same time?

Ok. I've had some time to relax and play with the fish a bit and read back through the thread with these thoughts in mind. To be honest, as I read it then, and as I read it now, they all stated reasons that I can understand. At a certain point in that progression, Woody went from being a huge X factor, to telling us what was going on. From that point, logical action depends on your point of view. I can see logical reasons both for switching the vote and for leaving it.

I'm not saying that it's not something to be watched, I'm just saying I don't think we have enough information to cast a vote on it. Likewise, I'm not saying that all of these peeps aren't suspects, but I don't think you have a lot of evidence there.

And again, I'm not sure about rich at all. I do know that he doesn't seem to be trying to add anything to the town's knowledge base, and until something more substantial happens, that's the best I can do. So I voted.

 

[jbradt]

Thanks, Jbradt.... This I'm happy to accept at least for now. I wasn't suspecting Pappy either as all of this took place because he appeared to be working for the town side up to the point where all those retractions started to fly. Then last night when Dawg posted his theory about Woody possibly being the evil journalist... I wondered if Dawg might be the townie journalist and from his role, he paid more attention to thoughts of who his evil counterpart might be than the rest of us were doing.

It wasn't until I re-read the last 150 posts (mostly after Wood's threat he might UD on us) that I began to see how well coordinated this might be IF those players were evil instead of innocent. And knowing that 3 of the 6 remaining mafia players are communicating with each other. But even I can can't say definitively whether this possible connection is true or not. We have no actual evidence to point either way... not yet.

I decided to go ahead with my suspicion as it stands now and cast my vote on Jpappy. And I've posted all I could to explain this possible connection for everyone else to review and pick apart. Mind you, I am more interested in hearing what other players think of these possiblities besides the ones who appear to be working together in their efforts to protect Woody, lynch Gunslinger, protect Annie, and cast suspicions toward Rich, DD, and MC.

As I've been looking through the thread, I noticed something interesting. DD and Kash both seem to be absolutely sure that Jpap and Dawg are on a team. The post I quoted above is the only one I could find where DD or Kash have even mentioned the other.

I've looked into both lines of questioning, and can't really see the logic behind either. The more I keep thinking about it, the scummier it starts to feel.
Right now here's how I see it:

Suspects: leaning innocent: looking into:
Rich Noods Dawg
Kash Jpap MC
DD Ogre

So far I don't have a read on the rest. I'll have more time later today... after a good, loooooooooooong sleep. I could be totally wrong on all this, but it's what I've got at the moment.

 

[noodles62]

I only have a few moments before I start my busy work day, but I wanted to get something out there before I catch flack for "being too quiet" (it is my busy time again w/ prepping Christmas for the foster children - during and after work!)

Anyway, without seriously studying what has transpired - I will admit that the long posts are confusing to me. No offense intended, I guess it is too much for my foggy little brain right now. I will try to make some sense of it on my lunch break, time permitting.

If I were to vote right now I would probably go with Annie or Rich.
No time to make "a list" so....
Dawg, not sure about (never am!) so not going there yet, needs further review. Kashta - need to review and digest her long posts; Jbradt - more long posts, no flags going up yet but at first glance seems to be following others easily; Jpap, not sure; DD - not sure (never am!);TRS, pretty quiet so peaks my interest; others - no opinion as of yet except quite a few have been or have gone quiet.....

Rich always plays pretty laid back and he fools me more times than not. Annie was really quiet on day one (real time) and then picked up the pace when called out for it; but has pretty much disappeared again.....this bothers me to be honest.

I would seriously consider putting my vote on Rich but that would make me the third one on and I dont care to go there right now because quite honestly I do not have the time to deal with nor defend the flack from it. Then again, Rich and Annie are pretty tied for my vote :huh: ....so with that being said I vote to lynch Annie. This vote is subject to change after I had time to review and try to decipher these long posts and see what else sticks out.....

Now off for my fun day at work! :woot:

 

[noodles62]

oh and JB, I think your list did not format correctly. cannot tell who is under which column...:huh:

 

[AnniesNotOK]

Noods, I find it interesting that ZS has posted less than the moderator at this point, yet you don't mention him at all. You chose your reason for voting me for being quiet??? Strange indeed.

I vote to lynch MC- MC made a post about Woody that he ended with a vote for me. Thats a scummy move, and he has not addressed it although I asked twice why he was voting for me.

My watchlist:

MC -scumbag extrodinare
Rich- a feeling
ZS- a normally active and helpful player, Z literally has less posts than the mod on Day 2. Laying low Z??? Maybe you'll post if you start seeing your name in bold more often.
Noods- Noods is evil every game I think

Though Kashta's theories about me are "tinfoil" as Zaffy would say, I will admit openly I have her leaning innocent at this point.