Mafia 100-The Witches Return-The Game

[[AC] Tree_Hugger]

While I do not have Wing as a suspect, I do not have them leaning innocent either. I would like to know what my suspects think about Wing. So Doom, Chupa, Rickets, BadHag, and C-Note, what do you think about Wing? I doubt if all of you will answer. I know that not all of you are witches. I also know that witches voted to burn Wiz. Since none of my suspects voted Wiz, it makes sense to look into those that did vote Wiz. I vote to burn wing at the stake.

Did a reread and feel comfortable with my vote. Took me a few to decide if I felt the quick pile on was anything but the votes fell so quick I doubt it. Then Tree calling protection of Wiz so early in the game made me wonder if they are just trying to get a known good player out quickly.

That day one posts, while I was in the lead put up a red flag to me. I thought to myself at the time if Wiz is really a witch then so is wing nut. Now that was day one and I ended up being tied for the lynch. Lots has happened since then. His comment about the quick pile on is strange also. I got three votes back to back. I called out c-note for protecting Wiz and we never heard back from Driver. I doubt two witches would vote for me on day one for having Wiz as a suspect. I do feel that is why mael was hit, as he was feeling the same vibe I was. I stand by my feelings that Wiz posted scum tells. So wing had a chance to get out of the quick pile on that was not really a quick pile in, which seemed to me it was. I expected others might see what I saw on Wiz, but besides Fire, no one was really willing to take a risk on me. I thought for sure I was going to lose the coin toss. I also thought for sure I was going to be hit tonight. So I am on borrowed time. I have hammer as innocent and Fire as innocent. Unless hammer wants to burn me, I am going to have their back. Am I latching? Blindly following? I do not think so, but I expect to have to hear those claims. Since Wiz was the top witch and the witches powers are greatly hampered, I do not see how anyone can build a case as me being a witch. Who knows, there are some very crafty people in this game. As far as c-note goes, I really don't like their comments after nightfall or their lack of posting. If wing comes up innocent, then I will strongly push for c-note. I also still have a fairly involved suspect list, plus a fairly open mind. I am super stoked about how this nightfall went and hope we have more like it.

 

[[AC] Doomsday998]

I'll leave tonight with some more condensed thoughts on players. This is based on what I'm thinking now, so it's subject to change...none of this is in a particular order...

Possible suspects:

Chupa- I don't like how they took the situation with Wiz and then disregarded Wiz's role and put me and Wing in the spotlight. When I questioned them it quickly became me and only me with little explanation as to why. I also don't like how they turned around and said they don't have a suspect list after prodding a couple people to post theirs. The mix up of me and Tree is certainly odd as well.

UhOh- Hardly posting at all and the only contribution they have made since D1 is a comment about how hard it is to play with aliases and a vote on Nem for changing font. Definitely seems like a cop out vote to me.

Scoop- See post #469. The quick succession of posts without much to them and the spacing between their first post and the vote is odd.

Narwhal- See post #469. Essentially let others do the case building on Wiz and was reluctant to vote there.

BH- Giving no reason for a vote is scummy enough, regardless if it was a vote for me. Also a low poster who hasn't done any digging. They commented as briefly as possible regarding Wiz too.

Wing- See post #469. In addition I could see the vote D1 as trying to protect Wiz now that we know he was the scum boss.

Still Unsure :

Star- As the 3rd vote on Wiz I find it unlikely they are scum, but I'm not entirely convinced yet. They did directly address Wiz.

Rickets- I will admit that I still haven't gone back and analyzed their vote on Nem. It was late but it seemed to be at least based on something substantial. Of the people with prolonged absences Rickets is at least attempting to stay up to speed.

HI IQ- Their vote on Wiz was still early, although in sort of a gray area for timing. Looking back I think the vote was still well thought out.

Nem- The late vote on Wiz may have been to save face although statistically I think there was still a chance Wiz may not have been lynched before Nem did move. So after the vote switch it would have taken someone to move off Wiz for that to be possible. I'll need to look more into their other posts when I look at Ricket's vote. I know there was mention of their vote on Driver at one point but I think that got buried with the revelations about Wiz.

Cnote- There's probably the greatest possibility of me leaning them more towards the scum side than the others. I don't like how they remained absent for a good 24 hours, even if the no-vote spell was used. Their D1 vote seemingly looks like a more overt defense of Wiz than Wing's too. However, based on their interactions with wing I don't see the two of them both being scum and by default I don't have them in the suspect pool, for now.

Leaning innocent:

Tree- Being that vocal about Wiz and being scum seems high unlikely.

HH- It's not even worth diving into the possibilities of HH being scum and naming Wiz like that...

Fire- I really doubt a teammate would be the second D1 vote on their own boss.

 

[[AC] Tree_Hugger]

Sorry about the color change in my text. I copied and pasted from another tab and thought the paste was a blue link. So I changed the color to black. I had no idea that the real color was not black. It looks black when I am typing it. Maybe it is grey. Whatever it was supposed to be, I thought I had messed up with the copy and paste. It is supposed to say, That day one post. Not posts. I think it is time to do something else. Later.

 

[[AC] xx_Nemesis_xx]

Nice play Hammerhead.

My suggestion is that we go back and look for any Defence of Wizard whatsoever, or effort to distract from the Wizard v Hammerhead issue, and work with that.

 

[[AC] xx_Nemesis_xx]

Nem- The late vote on Wiz may have been to save face although statistically I think there was still a chance Wiz may not have been lynched before Nem did move. So after the vote switch it would have taken someone to move off Wiz for that to be possible. I'll need to look more into their other posts when I look at Ricket's vote. I know there was mention of their vote on Driver at one point but I think that got buried with the revelations about Wiz.

Cnote- There's probably the greatest possibility of me leaning them more towards the scum side than the others. I don't like how they remained absent for a good 24 hours, even if the no-vote spell was used. Their D1 vote seemingly looks like a more overt defense of Wiz than Wing's too. However, based on their interactions with wing I don't see the two of them both being scum and by default I don't have them in the suspect pool, for now.

Just to note that yes as I counted the votes it seemed to me that however unlikely in respect of vote changes, if everyone who wasn't voting for Wizard jumped on Chupa Wizard could have been saved, statistically.

I don't think I factored in correctly the likelihood that, as turned out to be the case, someone would have been prevented from voting with no consequences for them - I forgot about the spell.

I'd have to go back and check but I think even with the spell holding C-Note from voting, had everyone who hadn't voted bailed onto Chupa, with my vote staying there, there would have been a tie.

In my mind though, because I didn't factor in the spell thing I thought everyone jumping on Chupa would give Chupa the lynch, and I knew I wouldn't be around at Nightfall to change my vote if that began to happen.

I think its fair of me to point out that I dismantled pretty thoroughly Wizard's effort to make a defence of himself and to accuse Tree, and that immediately after the D1 votes I assessed Wizard as a good suspect.

I have a longer post composed that I want to reflect on a little bit so I'll leave it at that for now.

 

[[AC] Doomsday998]

Just to note that yes as I counted the votes it seemed to me that however unlikely in respect of vote changes, if everyone who wasn't voting for Wizard jumped on Chupa Wizard could have been saved, statistically.

I don't think I factored in correctly the likelihood that, as turned out to be the case, someone would have been prevented from voting with no consequences for them - I forgot about the spell.

I'd have to go back and check but I think even with the spell holding C-Note from voting, had everyone who hadn't voted bailed onto Chupa, with my vote staying there, there would have been a tie.

In my mind though, because I didn't factor in the spell thing I thought everyone jumping on Chupa would give Chupa the lynch, and I knew I wouldn't be around at Nightfall to change my vote if that began to happen.

I think its fair of me to point out that I dismantled pretty thoroughly Wizard's effort to make a defence of himself and to accuse Tree, and that immediately after the D1 votes I assessed Wizard as a good suspect.

I have a longer post composed that I want to reflect on a little bit so I'll leave it at that for now.

In all honesty I didn't exactly go through the numbers all that well myself, but I think they were close enough that it would have taken some weird switching to make it possible for Wiz not to be lynched. Either way I'm not really leaning towards your vote being a distancing vote.

And I think I mentioned your counter to Wiz's defense when I originally analyzed your vote in post #469. I don't know why I missed it when I compiled my thoughts but I was trying not to repeat myself too much.

 

[[AC] RICKETS]

Chup and Nar are still on my list from before. I thought Nar was gliding along with the case on Wiz and not adding any new info however I still need to reevaluate those later votes on Wiz and look at exactly how people responded to the cases presented. Timing is also a factor as I am not sure when the scum would have decided to vote for Wiz.

Wing was one of those late voters (I think) and since HH was eerily right about Wiz I'd be more inclined to think that wing's D1 vote on you was more than just a random vote. Cnote's D1 vote is also suspect.

BH's vote and really their lack of input at all is suspicious to me. I'd add UhOh in as well for similar reasons.

I realize this is more than 4 names but getting the scum boss this early, especially given the circumstances, means it'll take some time for me to re-examine who I am leaning scum. I have some more thoughts below in response to your other post.



I don't see how that contradicts what I said, at all. You responded to Tree's post knowing it was theres and, according to you, then forgot and thought it was my post. Was that not what I said?



I still have a hard time believing there wasn't some sort of defense mustered up...although I wouldn't be surprised if people pointed fingers at me on that front. For that reason I'm wondering if those votes were somehow involved. I haven't been able to analyze Ricket's vote completely (other than pointing out the rule mix up) but it seemed that they at least went back and found justification for their vote. BH still hasn't given a reasoning. UhOh's vote was a total cop out vote. Not much of a defense but it could have saved them from having to "make a decison" on Wiz. With Chup I'm wondering why they stopped digging and focused on me, especially since they also named Wing at one point. I believe they also thought the attention on Wiz was warranted, but then they tried to offer me as another option.

I'll leave tonight with some more condensed thoughts on players. This is based on what I'm thinking now, so it's subject to change...none of this is in a particular order...

Possible suspects:

Chupa- I don't like how they took the situation with Wiz and then disregarded Wiz's role and put me and Wing in the spotlight. When I questioned them it quickly became me and only me with little explanation as to why. I also don't like how they turned around and said they don't have a suspect list after prodding a couple people to post theirs. The mix up of me and Tree is certainly odd as well.

UhOh- Hardly posting at all and the only contribution they have made since D1 is a comment about how hard it is to play with aliases and a vote on Nem for changing font. Definitely seems like a cop out vote to me.

Scoop- See post #469. The quick succession of posts without much to them and the spacing between their first post and the vote is odd.

Narwhal- See post #469. Essentially let others do the case building on Wiz and was reluctant to vote there.

BH- Giving no reason for a vote is scummy enough, regardless if it was a vote for me. Also a low poster who hasn't done any digging. They commented as briefly as possible regarding Wiz too.

Wing- See post #469. In addition I could see the vote D1 as trying to protect Wiz now that we know he was the scum boss.

Still Unsure :

Star- As the 3rd vote on Wiz I find it unlikely they are scum, but I'm not entirely convinced yet. They did directly address Wiz.

Rickets- I will admit that I still haven't gone back and analyzed their vote on Nem. It was late but it seemed to be at least based on something substantial. Of the people with prolonged absences Rickets is at least attempting to stay up to speed.

HI IQ- Their vote on Wiz was still early, although in sort of a gray area for timing. Looking back I think the vote was still well thought out.

Nem- The late vote on Wiz may have been to save face although statistically I think there was still a chance Wiz may not have been lynched before Nem did move. So after the vote switch it would have taken someone to move off Wiz for that to be possible. I'll need to look more into their other posts when I look at Ricket's vote. I know there was mention of their vote on Driver at one point but I think that got buried with the revelations about Wiz.

Cnote- There's probably the greatest possibility of me leaning them more towards the scum side than the others. I don't like how they remained absent for a good 24 hours, even if the no-vote spell was used. Their D1 vote seemingly looks like a more overt defense of Wiz than Wing's too. However, based on their interactions with wing I don't see the two of them both being scum and by default I don't have them in the suspect pool, for now.

Leaning innocent:

Tree- Being that vocal about Wiz and being scum seems high unlikely.

HH- It's not even worth diving into the possibilities of HH being scum and naming Wiz like that...

Fire- I really doubt a teammate would be the second D1 vote on their own boss.

Doom, why do I get the impression you're attempting to snow me? You're not hoping to hover below my radar, are you? ......Hoping I won't notice how you've (twice!) dodged posting any judgement whatsoever about my thoughts or my vote on Nemesis?

Maybe I should get hurt feelings after I put all that thought into a post it seems that you don't want to read over, are purposely trying to avoid, or maybe would rather not acknowledge was ever written. Lol!!

Are you hoping someone else will post a more definitive assessment of my level of scumminess or my lack of scumminess first so you won't have to? That would leave your options open, wouldn't it, to find out how others decide to categorize me based on that post.......... leaving you free to follow their direction or post some lackluster comment that won't draw attention to you for making it.

 

[[AC] chupacabra]

I started catching up now, and the first thing I notice is how both HH and Doom have turned on Wing almost simultaneously. Thing is, I can see and believe their arguments. I'll have to mull that over a little before I can decide if they are correct (or at least convincing) enough for me to vote Wing.

I find it interesting that Tree is basing their vote on a day 1 post, but the logic is somewhat understandable.

When Doom posted his condensed list of info on everyone, I found it curious that he didn't have anything to say about Rickets. Granted, I don't have anything to say either, so it didn't bother me until Rickets came in and pointed it out. When he did the first thing to come into my head was "could that be distancing of some sort? Or perhaps a careful reminder?" Then my brain moves forward and thinks "Or is Rickets trying to implicate Doom by bringing this up?". I dunno, but now I'm watching Rickets closer too.

AORN, I'm looking at Doom, Wing, Tree, and Rickets more closely then others, though I do plan to do a reread of the thread when I get home and can eat something that will wake me up enough to read the 500 or so posts that I'm sure will be here by that time

 

[[AC] scoop411]

I went to look at those who voted Wiz and there reasons and interactions throughout D2. I left out HH, Tree and Fire for obvious reasons I've already stated.



Star was the 3rd vote. It's not indicated in this post but there was a previous post of there's that questioned Wiz directly. In terms of timing I don't think a scum-mate would jump on this early.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



HI IQ was next to vote and explained pretty thoroughly why they were voting Wiz. Still seems a bit early for scum to move to Wiz, but it's not exactly a science either.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Narwhal's vote is interesting, given the rest of their posting. They started out with some soft questioning of HH's theory and eventually said that they saw the logic in HH's case, but did not like the 100% certainty. Narwhal brought this up more than one time and then latched on to Tree as well, pulling the trigger to land 5th on Wiz. Oddly enough this was soon after Wiz attempted to defend himself. I don't see a single post of Narwhal's about their suspicion for Wiz that isn't based on agreement with what someone else had said nor do they go into any detail except "seeing the logic" or the case "making sense". I believe I flat out asked them why saw the cases as "valid" but was never granted a response...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Scoop also didn't add much to the conversation. They posted quickly that there was no other choice than voting Wiz, waited 15 minutes, and then actually voted. At this point it wouldn't surprise me if scum had given up. By this time some people had already commented on how Wiz's defense post was weak. I haven't heard from scoop on why they timed their posts this way.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Wing states that they agree that Wiz's defense case is weak. They also mention HH's gut feel...both are mentioned below in their suspect list as well. You can also see that they mention Cnote as a top suspect but brush them off for Wiz instead. The wording itself is odd: "I'm no more sure of him then Cnote but I feel Cnotes actions are scummier where Wiz is more due to different play style and hiding."

They flat out state Cnote is acting scummier but their vote is on Wiz in order to learn more...I definitely could view this reasoning as contrived. It seems that Wing may be looking for a reason to vote Wiz, but not by choice.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Nem named Wiz early on when they went through the votes and eliminated and pointed out people due to a few D1 "scum tells". Nem also countered Wiz's defense/attack on HH and Tree. Although a late vote like this could be from a teammate, in terms of timing, there is also the fact that I believe there was still a slim chance that Wiz could be saved. He would have needed a lot of unlikely vote changes but this vote did seal the deal on Wiz.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on this, IF there was a teammate or maybe teammates voting for Wiz I think it would be down to the 5-6-7 spots...Narwhal, Scoop, and Wing, respectively. It be possible, given the timing, that the team or just some of the individual scum may have decided to give up on Wiz and blend in. The train certainly seemed to be headed on its way out by then. The circumstances surrounding their votes as well are the most suspect, IMO.

I'm not saying I necessarily think all three are scum. There's a possibility that none are, or I could be incorrect by not including others that voted Wiz. However I do believe that this narrows the list down a bit.

I really didn't see that there was much to add to the conversation in regard to Wiz that hadn't been said. To me it was obvious that he had to go. As to why wait 15 minutes. I can say I only waited 15 minutes because I had to leave otherwise I would have waited longer. I often wait to put in my vote as I never want the scum to give up hope. As long as they have hope they will manueveur to save their scummates and that's where you can possibly gain information.

To focus your attention on the people who voted Wiz at this point is short sighted. I find it unlikely that the scum voted out the head witch - they would have worked to find a way to save him. I've no doubt their was scum on Wiz but undoubtly they were not all on Wiz.

 

[[AC] scoop411]

While I do not have Wing as a suspect, I do not have them leaning innocent either. I would like to know what my suspects think about Wing. So Doom, Chupa, Rickets,BadHag, and C-Note, what do you think about Wing? I doubt if all of you will answer. I know that not all of you are witches. I also know that witches voted to burn Wiz. Since none of my suspects voted Wiz, it makes sense to look into those that did vote Wiz. I vote to burn wing at the stake.


That day one posts, while I was in the lead put up a red flag to me. I thought to myself at the time if Wiz is really a witch then so is wing nut. Now that was day one and I ended up being tied for the lynch. Lots has happened since then. His comment about the quick pile on is strange also. I got three votes back to back. I called out c-note for protecting Wiz and we never heard back from Driver. I doubt two witches would vote for me on day one for having Wiz as a suspect. I do feel that is why mael was hit, as he was feeling the same vibe I was. I stand by my feelings that Wiz posted scum tells. So wing had a chance to get out of the quick pile on that was not really a quick pile in, which seemed to me it was. I expected others might see what I saw on Wiz, but besides Fire, no one was really willing to take a risk on me. I thought for sure I was going to lose the coin toss. I also thought for sure I was going to be hit tonight. So I am on borrowed time. I have hammer as innocent and Fire as innocent. Unless hammer wants to burn me, I am going to have their back. Am I latching? Blindly following? I do not think so, but I expect to have to hear those claims. Since Wiz was the top witch and the witches powers are greatly hampered, I do not see how anyone can build a case as me being a witch. Who knows, there are some very crafty people in this game. As far as c-note goes, I really don't like their comments after nightfall or their lack of posting. If wing comes up innocent, then I will strongly push for c-note. I also still have a fairly involved suspect list, plus a fairly open mind. I am super stoked about how this nightfall went and hope we have more like it.

I'm probably going to vote Wing myself but I'm having trouble with your logic here. Wing is not your suspect but you're going to burn him. You know some witchs were on Wiz but because all of your suspects were not on Wiz you're looking elsewhere?