Mafia 2014 #1-- FF1 Simple--The Play

[the wizard]

I think your logic is flawed. There were a lot of late votes last night. I do know and can show with posts that JP has kicked more bushes than anyone else this game. I have seen Posts that appear as though they are kicking bushes but fall rather flat under scrutiny.

 

[the wizard]

29 hours after nightfall and no UN. Do you think he is still at the party?

It is late and I need to go to bed. I will look in on the game if I get up in the middle of the night. If not, then in the morning.

 

[Fishfriend1]

I think your logic is flawed. There were a lot of late votes last night. I do know and can show with posts that JP has kicked more bushes than anyone else this game. I have seen Posts that appear as though they are kicking bushes but fall rather flat under scrutiny.

Is his kicking of bushes the only factor that makes my logic flawed, or do you see more? Because I for one think that Pappy could definitely pull off looking very helpful to the town while actually turning everyone against each other.

 

[jpappy789]

Well, the logic seems fairly straightforward. The following things are fact:

1) Until nightfall, DD could have come back and placed a vote on either Kashta OR User in order to create a tie.
2) Until nightfall, Pappy could have voted Kashta OR User and created a tie.
3) The mafia team chose to target Kashta despite the above two statements.

Up until Pappy's vote 1 minute before nightfall, DD could have at least pulled a tie, and if Pappy and DD had both voted on the same other person (assuming they had 2 votes already) it would have spared DD the lynch/UD, and the person mostly likely to get DD's vote would have, I think, been Kashta. Assuming that both Pappy and DD voted either User or Kashta it would have led to a 3 way tie and put the Mafia Hit as a potential lynch, wasting the hit. As such, they must have known that Pappy would vote on DD in order to entrust their hit to Kashta, because if he had placed it on Kashta it would have resulted in a tie, putting their hit at risk of lynch. If he had voted on Kashta and then DD popped in and did so as well to protect herself during the lynch, the hit would have been absolutely wasted.

As such, they were either a) aware of Pappy's vote, b) sure where pappy would vote, or c) been around during nightfall and thus able to switch votes to ensure DD's lynch and Kashta's hit, which would have been rather revealing and doesn't seem like a good plan to me.

Since I doubt many people could have predicted where Pappy's vote would land with enough certainty to place a hit on the runner up until his vote, I must think that Pappy was a member of the scum team.

Make any sense at all or is my logic flawed somehow?

There are quite a lot of assumptions you are making while ignoring some other, less risky options...however, the one assumption you did not acknowledge is that for any of that to really make any sense you would have to infer that I am not the don and that the hit on Kash was locked in at some point. Because otherwise I would have had the option to move the hit as I saw fit, depending on how votes fell, and would have had flexibility to vote less conspicuously and likely would have done so MUCH earlier (as in not at a time that was a borderline UD). In which case, who do you think my don is?

 

[jpappy789]

FF, a couple of times before you posted this grandiose theory you mentioned your "gut feel" about me.

I'm going to be frank, after a reread of day 1... I have no solid leads whatsoever. I do have to agree a bit with Wiz's comment (100) regarding UN and his vote, how he voted on someone who was in the lead while saying scum liked the way the game was going. My gut says that Pappy is hiding something, but I'm not entirely sure yet why my guy says that so I'll just keep rereading until I figure it out.

I'll check back on the thread again to see what others think and post.

Ok, sure.



If so than I would say (off the top of my head) that Pappy is scum, but that is off of a gut feeling I have regarding his gameplay so far. If they weren't here at nightfall than it would have had to be me, as Bally and UN were both around to see Kashta getting votes but I was long gone by then. In this case it could be anyone, since everyone here is an experienced player. We can certainly hope right? But who here would, at nightfall, have targeted Kashta? This is the one I think is least likely to be true.

I honestly don't see how his post was very helpful, if anything it seems more focused on muddying the waters than on giving any information - mostly because he didn't answer any of his own questions and only posted that he's "not saying this means anything in itself." in which case I must ask Zaffy... why didn't you add anything to this post so that it would mean something of it's own accord?

I called you out on it...

FF, I don't understand how you cannot see the inconsistencies here...how can you pretend to be answering Zaffy's questions (I say "pretend" because it seems like you are fishing by throwing my name out there based on this "gut feeling" you now have) and then turn around and try to criticize Zaffy for even asking the questions in the first place?

If you think Zaffy posing those questions is a waste of time and "muddying the waters" then why give credence to said questions by attempting to answer them?

Now you tell me that your "gut feel" was actually based on all of this...

Am I correct with these being the final votes taken at nightfall?

(4) DD by FF1, user, Kashta, Pappy - Innocent, UD/Lynch

(2) Kashta by 2Hobbs, Bally - Innocent, Mafia Hit

(2) Un by wiz, Zaffy

Note: Bold are votes after the last vote update by Bish day 1.

Assuming that the scum team is experienced (which it is, everyone here is experienced) they must have either known how Pappy would vote or been very confident in how pappy would vote + dd not showing up. For the record, Pappy, this is where that gut feeling was coming from. The only surefire way that the scum team could KNOW that Kashta wouldn't be the lynch was if they KNEW that pappy was going to vote for her - and since that meant DD wouldn't be able to save herself even if she voted Kashta it effectively secured Kashta as a valid hit target for the scum team.

As such, I will probably vote Pappy for the 2nd nightfall, unless something comes into play the convinces me otherwise.

So my other question is, why did you wait until now to post this theory of yours that was backing up your "gut feel"?

From my perspective it's awfully suspicious that the only substance you pulled on me occurred after I said you were fishing...

 

[Fishfriend1]

]There are quite a lot of assumptions you are making while ignoring some other, less risky options...[/B]however, the one assumption you did not acknowledge is that for any of that to really make any sense you would have to infer that I am not the don and that the hit on Kash was locked in at some point. Because otherwise I would have had the option to move the hit as I saw fit, depending on how votes fell, and would have had flexibility to vote less conspicuously and likely would have done so MUCH earlier (as in not at a time that was a borderline UD). In which case, who do you think my don is?

What other, less risky options are there? What assumptions do I keep making? Why do both you and wiz keep mentioning my assumptions in a game based on 'assuming' that everyone is your enemy and 'assuming' that people you vote for are scum based on what you've come to know?

As for you being Don or not, if you ARE than you could have either a) wanted Kashta out of the way regardless (for example, if wiz is scum as well and you were worried she would be able to tell [just a thought btw]), or b) thought she was a Good PR. Not being the Don would mean that, possibly, User is the Don, since he had to leave prior to nightfall. Also, are you using the "I did this therefore I cannot be the villain because it's way to conspicuous" argument to defend yourself?

As for who the Don is? Well, I honestly don't know. If it's you than you would have had reason for hitting Kashta, even if not there must have been a reason. The missing Don is probably the main weakness in my logic here

FF, a couple of times before you posted this grandiose theory you mentioned your "gut feel" about me.

I called you out on it...

Now you tell me that your "gut feel" was actually based on all of this...

So my other question is, why did you wait until now to post this theory of yours that was backing up your "gut feel"?

From my perspective it's awfully suspicious that the only substance you pulled on me occurred after I said you were fishing...

In regards to timing, it wasn't until recently that I came to that conclusion, and I didn't feel like posting any more half-baked thoughts and getting yelled at for it so I didn't post until I was fairly certain what my theory was. In all honestly, my gut feeling could be based off of something else, but it more or less clicks with what I said here so I doubt it.

Now, what do you have against the fishing I apparently did? Certainly it's better to fish and see who bites than to not do anything at all right?

I'll be back some time tomorrow, I've got to sleep now.

 

[user_name]

Hey all been keeping up with the thread but had a hard time getting time to actually post. Sucks to see Kashta go, not sure what to make of her being hit while up on the block. Something is definitely rotten in the scum den(mark) if the hit came there. Part of me wants to say a hit could've been the result of her shaking the bushes a little D1, but then again it could just as easily be setting up those who voted for her (2h and Bally I believe).

You really consider the post I pulled from FF above an indication that he is looking for scum? Anyone can post a list of players and post an opinion. Looking for scum means questioning people. heir responses, and actions in the game thread.

Show me where FF has kicked any bushes to root out scum. If you can.

I never said that he was doing a particularily good job of doing it, but he was making an attempt. Whereas with DD there was absolutely nothing there, and I feel like with a smaller game and nothing else to really go off of (aside from FF's erratic play and Bally and Kash's disagreement on what a joke is), it made sense to vote her. At the time there was only one vote on DD, I don't see how that would be voting the scums way when there were only a couple votes on the board at that point with no clear leader. Me adding a 2nd vote to DD is no different then you adding what you "thought" would be the second vote on her as well.

 

[Zaffy]

Zaffy, I'm curious if you have any opinion regarding Wiz's comment way back about FF specifically picking you on D1 and the possible ramifications if you were innocent. You sort of brought it up in reference to 2H voting Kash because of it, and then I corrected you, but I'm wondering if you put any thought into Wiz's initial comment itself.

I don't think FF was as concerning with who he voted as much as he was concerned with getting the game going. I think FF is uncomfortable when a game starts, and he manifests his anxiety by posted whole bunch. As far as Wiz suggesting that I shouldn't be lynched without good reason; I'm flattered first of all, and to an extent I agree. But it can be a double edged sword. I don't think it applies when FF is the one throwing a vote around. In this context it serves to make FF look bad.

 

[user_name]

Also, with the potential to have 3 innocents killed last night when DD failed to appear, I have a growing suspicion of the votes on me. Both Wiz and Zaffy come out looking scummy here in my opinion, as Wiz changes his vote from the likely UD DD to me. Zaffy then follows suit with a really weak post that Wiz made him "think". I know you later addressed this, but the lack of reasoning given before nightfall leads me to suspect that one (or both) could be scum trying to set up for the triple kill on the first night.

Yes, you could argue that their argument was flimsy but so was everybody else's votes D1. However, notice their choice in target. Me and FF are clearly the weakest players in the game (no offense), and I have a history of UDing and causing issues. With such weak cases for voting, it makes sense for the scum team to try for the trifecta by setting up an easy target and trying to get last minute votes on them. Given FF's absudity on D1, I could see why scum would lay off of him so he could continue throwing the town off and potentially creating drama D2.

That is probobly meant to be read in full tin foil atire, but considering the way nightfall turned out it makes sense. The only thing that bugs me still is why hit Kash when she was up for the vote. If she was on the voting block D1, then why let not let her slide and try to lynch her D2?

 

[user_name]

Am I correct with these being the final votes taken at nightfall?

(4) DD by FF1, user, Kashta, Pappy - Innocent, UD/Lynch

(2) Kashta by 2Hobbs, Bally - Innocent, Mafia Hit

(2) Un by wiz, Zaffy

Note: Bold are votes after the last vote update by Bish day 1.

Assuming that the scum team is experienced (which it is, everyone here is experienced) they must have either known how Pappy would vote or been very confident in how pappy would vote + dd not showing up. For the record, Pappy, this is where that gut feeling was coming from. The only surefire way that the scum team could KNOW that Kashta wouldn't be the lynch was if they KNEW that pappy was going to vote for her - and since that meant DD wouldn't be able to save herself even if she voted Kashta it effectively secured Kashta as a valid hit target for the scum team.

As such, I will probably vote Pappy for the 2nd nightfall, unless something comes into play the convinces me otherwise.

Ok I really don't understand your reasoning here. If Pap was scum then why would he vote DD who obviously appears like she's going to UD? If DD did show and for whatever reason voted Kashta (according to your logic) then wouldn't the hit be wasted if Kash lost the coin flip? If he were scum I would be more inclined to think he would either another player not on the board to avoid a kill vote, or try and move votes AWAY from DD as she potentially UD'd. If he is scum then I don't see why he wouldn't put the vote somewhere that could benefit his team without looking too incriminating.