MAFIA #5 The Play.....

[Coler]

I don't know if DD is confused, or what. When she first talks about wasting votes, she is referring to Mee-mee's vote being wasted on a non-candidate.

I, and think HN as well, saw her comment as saying anyone who voted for mee-mee at that point was wasted, because he was also pretty much a non-candidate at that point. I would still like to hear some clarification on this line of thought because it doesn't make sense to me. I believe that mee-mee was wasting votes, but I also believe that, by the time DD voted, it was pretty clear that mee-mee was not going to be lynched at that point, it was going to be either jo or jm.

I have a different read, which makes more sense to me - I took it that DD was saying that mee-mee had wasted votes, and was therefore likely mafia.

Ice, DD & Ogre all jumped on mee-mee around that time.

That's what gives me a weak suspicion around joander - why not vote joander to save JM ? only if joander is also mafia would they not do this.

Either that or my list is way wrong...and in fairness I can see why it could be now.

However, note Ice's response to me naming him as a candidate...he's picking me, sploke and ZS as mafia directly after my posts about him...the response is very worrying to me as regards Ice's innocence or guilt.

Still waiting for a reaction from Dangerdoll.

I will be interested to hear all parties analysis during the day, DD & ZS in particular, also Ice & Ogre.

I will now go back and look at what HN was saying, and cross-reference it with my various lists. If we can identify common points, we may be on to something. The question would then become were they hitting us because a) we were on to something in common or b) we were/are (in my case) way way off the mark or c) double-bluff...we were onto something but they hit us to make it look like 'the mafia would never be that stupid'...note, c) was exactly what the mafia in game 4 (of which I was a part and an advocate of that strategy) tried to do, in hitting JM

 

[Coler]

Ok, so after my last post, you can see that DD is kind of tipping my radar. That might warrant some more though. Ice is currently my other top suspect as of now.

First off, I want to ackowledge the fact that yes, ZS Coler and I all seem to be in agreement on things so far. ZS switching votes made me nervous, but after he switched, I went back and looked at the pattern and got nervous myself. Add HN on the list and you have the first 4 votes for JM. I think its highly unlikely that any one of us is mafia, never mind all 3 (since we already know that HN was not), because those 4 votes are the bulk of why JM got lynched IMO.

Looking back - Ice voted to lynch clown fairly late in the day, possibly a tipping vote...not sure if that was ever resolved or not. Now, he's accusing myself, Z and Coler of all being mafia, which doesn't add up, in my mind. then, second day, votes mee-mee, who for hte most part isn't under consideration as a lynch candidate, other than being a second or third pick on a few lists.

Talk amongst yourselves....

agreeing with you, broadly.

Lets hear from the rest of the townies

sploke - its unlikely that ice would name a list of 3 total innocents...I would like to hear from ZS

 

[ZSandmann]

Uh.. Uh... It's your birthday, get happy, go Townies, bite it Mafia!!! Uh, uh, uh :headbang2:

REALLY NOW, IS THAT YOUR WORD?..cause i think, maybe you ought to look on who started on who, and when, should we take your word, or the facts we all have so freely available..

The JM/JO feud heats up. I think JM has a strong tell, when it is getting very close to time for her to be lynched or hit she tends to go Mr. Hyde on us. This was a turning point for me.

Z, i have one question, who else swung their votes?..no one?..I am sure I dint miss any thing?..

I didn't say swinging votes, although that was part of it. I was pointing out the pattern. JM is leading the vote, seems she is a gonner. So I drop off the list and vote jappy (which IS a real pick of mine BTW). In under 10 minutes bkw, Ogre, and DD show up out of the blue and pile drive mee-mee and joander. I just created a situation they had to try and take advantage of. I have no doubt there are Mafia in that group of names. When I saw it happen, I leapt back on JM because I knew I was right.

UM, WHAT DOES THAT PROVE>? you are now grabbing at straws, one person asks and you change, ..AND, IF YOU WERE INNOCENT, WHY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR YOURSELF?..i don't get it, I guess maybe I ain't as smart as I though, ..You know, i expect it from HN, actually, but you, are jumping on a train, PLEASE after you lynch me town, Look at him, really, I can't believe you guys are falling for this, and hopefully he will actually become productive, wheres his list, and his suspicions?..I can't find them either.

The further desintegration of JM's game. It's a verbal fist fight now.

waaaait a minute. Sandy, why are you being so protective of Joander when earlier in the game, everyone was so sure of Jo.... were you protecting Jo then too....

And Jo, why are you now all of a sudden so sure of yourself and accusing everyone of bandwagoning for voting for you?

As I've stated, no protection from me on joander, I still have some doubts but this cleared them up quite a bit. DD comes out of the shadows swinging, could be good solid Innnocent inquiry though. I'm not sold that DD is Mafia.

you know, i am going to ignore you after this, Um, how many people said worthless mee-mee votes before you?.. you are not super player, you are to full of yourself, are you being so cocky, because you, are getting away with being mafia?, because after last night,. your chest sure puffed out. seems funny to me, that at the last minute you walked, you better thank your buddies for saving your hide..

Now i am done with him, this isn't really helping me..

:devil: KABOOM!!! JM reaches criticial mass, by this point she knows she is toast.

Coler I don't have time right now as I should be leaving, I just came to make a post and let the others ponder and debate while I'm at work.

I want everyone to read Colers last post,that way you can see what I wrote,read it then reread it. But while reading keep in mind that Zman pulled his vote from JM when it was to close to call who would get lynched. Then voted Jpappy,my guess hoping people would fall off JM to Jpappy. It didn't work and he quickly jumped back in on the JM vote.

Looks to me like we have the 4 mafia right there, JM Coler Zman and Sploke.

Why jump around on JM so close Z? Trying a last second save? Not working so jump back on to make it look good? I can't say I'm buying it.

Also point out that HN listed me and Z as suspects because of the TRIAD discussion thinking we were on the same team. Then HN gets hit. Well I have to think that HN was right about 1 of those players being mafia.

What do you guys think...I REALLY have to go now I'm late as heck.

Don't you believe him... I pulled my vote for exactly the reason I stated above. It was a test as I tested sploke on Day 1. It's worked twice for me. I didn't even have my vote off JM long enough to solicite others to jpappy, just long enough to stir the pot and see what floated to the top. I'm now 95% confident Coler is an Innocent, I'm also about 75% sure joander is Innocent. Ice unfortunately dropped to about 55% after pointing the finger at Coler so strongly. I do have my doubts on Coler but there are much larger targets in this thread. Day 3 is going to be a firecracker of a Day.

 

[OgreMkV]

Nice guys, I thought JMax was being her usual self and basically ignored her.

Coler, I'm not sure, but way back yesterday (real time) morning, I started the mee-mee thing. My reasoning were her meaningless voting pattern... at the time, I didn't vote for her... next time I check in, there are two votes for her and a couple of people have made remarks in her direction. Since I had to decide then, I decided.

Now, two things was JMax, the sacrificial lamb. The big argument IS a classic mafia tactic. Two mafia have a big fight so that when one is discovered, the other is presumed innocent.

Ten to one, that joander is completely ignored today.

Next, mee-mee is still voting weird and Jensons cast the final vote for joander.

 

[Sploke]

Ok, here's the voting order from first day...long list.

coler for coler 4
jm for jo 59
jo for coler 146
ice for jo 164 (at this point its pretty clear that a lot of people are suspicious of jo)
cl for jo 172
hn for sploke 184
jo revokes coler 196
hn revokes sploke 215
hn for jm 222
sploke for mal 257
clown for dd 268
coler for sploke 269
johnlarson for clown 296
z for sploke 306
dd for jo 308
Z revokes sploke 312
ogre for clown 315
Z for clown 324
kotd for jo 335
sploke switches to jpappy 336
jo for clown 338

*At this point, jo has 5 and clown has 4.*

ogre revokes clown, votes no one 362 (5-3, jo)
coler retracts sploke 366
jensons for clown 373 (5-4, jo)
meemee for mal 380
coler for clown 381 (5-5)

ice switches from jo to clown 382 (6-4, clown)
coler revokes clown 383 (5-4, clown)
clown switches from dd to jo 390 (5-5)

Did I miss anything? Or did rb do a coin toss and just not mention it? Either way, those last 3 votes were so close together its easy to believe that neither was aware of what the other was doing. In any case, Ice switching from jo to clown was a 2 point swing, which is significant. I know this has been discussed, I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything. Are all those votes correct?

 

[Sploke]

Now, two things was JMax, the sacrificial lamb. The big argument IS a classic mafia tactic. Two mafia have a big fight so that when one is discovered, the other is presumed innocent.

Ten to one, that joander is completely ignored today.

Yeah, but JM has been nagging on Jo since day one. My impression was that, yes jo was acting pretty naive about things, and JM saw that as an opportunity to throw suspicion his way, and have it easily believed...especially after CL's slick moves last game. If the back and forth had been limited to last night, I might believe it more, since they would have had to set it up from post 1, and I'm not sure they would have had that much foresight. Even in the first 100 posts, JM is on jo like white on rice, Ice and CL follow with votes, and its not until a while after, that clown even gets his first vote. I dunno, just some thoughts.

 

[ZSandmann]

That is the way I have it sploke. The ramifications of the way it went down is an entirely different can of worms.

Ogre: mee-mee and Jensons aren't even on my list right now but I am suspicious of everyone of course. Except the ones that are dead, which makes their case a little more believable. I just don't feel the same on joander as I did Day 1. I think it was a legit newbie-ism on Day 1 and that jo has gotten into the flow of the game. If CL wouldn't have had their royal blunder last round I doubt anyone would even be that hell bent on jo. But the comparison is unavoidable with it so fresh on everyones minds.

Coffee break over, time to do some work.

 

[Coler]

Some of the action focusing on the vote and Hooked Newbie's efforts from day 2

this is posts 662 and 663...bkw has just said this (662) :

My vote goes to joander, reading through the post judge seems nervous and over happy, but we all came into this game with high standards for her. its not fair to vote for her just because she hasn't produced. how can she follow up last game? hard to be consistent when she did wht she did last game, im thinkin we are seein the real judge

I vote to lynch jo

Now ZS (663)

Uhhh uhhh, I don't like what's happening. I was right, I knew it. Notice how when I pulled my votes all the other votes starting shifting. Something wicked this way comes.
I vote to lynch JudgeMax

Now for me this ^has a ring of authenticity to it on ZS's part, but make your own minds up.

Post 650 (Sploke) - there's about 5/6 hours to go on the lynching I think and this post summarises the position :

Current votes as of 11:00, by my count:​

Jo, 4 - CL (431), Jo (465), KOTD (470), Jpap (543)​

JM, 4 - coler (496) sploke (510), HN (546), johnlarson (592)​

johnlarson, 1 - meemee (561)​

meemee, 2 - ice (600), DD (647)​

jpappy, 1 - ZS (639)​

Subsequent votes to think about - Ogre came in on Mee-Mee, bkw came in on Joander JL came over to JM, HN came over to JM, ZS came over to JM, Joander came over to JM. This is not the order in which this happened btw

Hooked Newbies analysis, before his murder : post 638. He's addressing ZS here. :

I find it VERY alarming that with Max leading the vote by one, you'd remove your vote while addresing Ice (who has a worthless vote on mee-mee).

Townies, I think this is even more reason to vote for JMax. If she's mafia Ice & Z may have outted themselves, if innocent feel free to lynch me if you think I am mafia. If I'm hit tonight, you know why.

HN is saying that moving off JM is suspicious - I agree with that. Ref back up to posts 662, 663 above, bkw and ZS. To me the ZS post has the ring of authenticity to it.

Ice says that mee mee screams mafia. HN said she would be worth a vote but not just yet :

Maybe in a day or two, but I think right now a mee-mee vote is wasted based on what the current counts are.

post 590 : HN quotes some stuff...says he does not buy into the 'botched hit = coler mafia scum' theory

Ice is asking about my lists :

See I almost fell automatically to the he was hit therefore he is innocent side also.

But now I'm not so sure. He jumps on a lot of people. His "lists" are hardly ever the same. Why cast so much indecisiveness on so many people at once except to get votes strung out so the mafia can gain the upper hand on who they really want out?

lists help - they beget reaction, which is information. Posting a suspicion draws a response. My list has been pretty consistent though since early day two.

post 449 HN's list (you = Judgemax)

The waiting is what spooks me. I have no doubts that you are smart, but if I were you, given the last game. It'd be a great move to wait for a "strong" suspect as the town marched on. So, even if you have no "strong" suspects, who are your strongest right now.

Mine are...

1. You
2. JL
3. Zsand
4. Jo
5. Ice

Like I said before, I think we are up against a much more experienced and vocal mafia than last time. Notice my vote is on #3 at the moment? I need to be convinced and the only one that seems completely innocent right now is Coler. Oh, and your "be like me last game" post to him wasn't lost...

Well my only hope is that Jo is also an innocent and my vote didn't really matter.

Coler my post was being typed the same time you had made your vote. How could I be falling for a trap?

I got home at 5:40 and had to skim the thread for 12 hours worth of posting. I wanted to get a solid vote in before time was up.

I'm only guilty of skimming and not really taking in what was said. I saw a lot of people thinking Jo was innocent, I didn't want to be the one that threw him to the mafia. It was bad enough I started the thought he was a mafia slipping up.

If Jo is mafia then I'll start the lynch train on myself.

So, HN's suspects were :

Mee-Mee
If JM = mafia, then Ice and ZS

Then the list : JM, JL, ZS, Joan, Ice

Again the question : did they hit him because he was right, or because he was wrong. If they learned from last game it would be because he was wrong

He was also a good, intelligent, analytical player for them to take out.

 

[Dangerdoll]

just what kind of reaction are you expecting from me, Coler?

 

[Coler]

My lists from day 1, lets see if there was anything worth killing me for :

post 107

We have yet to hear from Jensons, jpappy, Johnlarsson & bkw

My people to watch (slightly perking my mafia meter) in no particular order are :

joander

Sploke

Dangerdoll

Judge

post 251

my current list of suspects; no huge weight of conviction yet, just day one feelings :

1. Judgemax
2. Dangerdoll
3. Bkw
4. Sploke

I have a half hour before bed time I'll revise and probably vote then.

my revised list (one more revision before I'm done for the night) :

1. Judgemax
2. Sploke
3. DD
4. bkw

Ogre asked for some reasons so post 264:

Nope not fully. Here they are :

1. Judgemax...initial paranoia just based on post style, naming Malbri as a suspect and gave what I thought were really bogus reasons and mostly jumping straight in on joander, who I think made a newbie mistake. Then the reaction to HN's vote.

2. Sploke...first post made me queasy...voting for Malbri made me very interested. Defending JM

3. Dangerdoll...fingerpointing, no voting.

4. bkw...I just think something is up here. Bkw is my weakest suspect and I don't have much confidence in this one.

The others are much of a muchness.

Post 269

okay I'm out for the night;

my current thinking in no order except for bkw :

1. Judgemax
2. Sploke
3. DD
4. bkw but really weak and basically just my gut instinct.

No offence to any of you - you just flickered my mafia meter.

I change my vote to lynch Sploke

My reckoning is that there's 9 hours before night, so I will get a chance to come back on before nightfall.

hmmm...just noticed that HN was first to look at Ice as a suspect at p. 270

If Jo is mafia and I suspect he very well might be, I still say that JM presents a greater threat. She has proven herself to be very smart and creative and quite frankly, I don't trust her thus far (Not that I trust anyone). She has gone from extremely defensive to "cheery" when confronted. Some players have come to her defense *without logical reasoning behind it) and others have been "out of character" and distancing themselves from the entire conversation. Right now my top 4 are JM, Ice, Jo, and Z. Turn up the heat townies!

Another list from me : posted 9 minutes before nightfall.

My suspicious list, i.e. if I absolutely had to pick mafia to lynch right now it would be from these... based on second half day 2

judgemax
Ogre
Clown Lover
Hooked Newbie
Sploke (a bit)
Dangerdoll (a bit)

I don't know if joander is mafia...but if that lynch works out, it will give us good information.

Earlier in the day Judgemax, DD, bkw featured on all my lists, I think. Sploke was also on them a lot.

I need to go back and see if there is any cross-over with HN's postings...

I am beginning to think that HN was murdered for being a good player more than anything else. I would appreciate other opinions on whether my lists got me attacked and if so for being right/wrong.