Mafia #6.....The Play

[Madcrawdad]

As promised, I've pulled together information on an individual who I think is flying under most folks radar. That individual is JohnLarson66. Upon reading his posts, it may appear that he's being helpful, but upon rereading there's really not alot there. JohnLarson is a good and smart player, but to me it looks like he's not really kicking down any doors or sticking his neck out to find mafia. I believe that this includes all of his posts to date, and I'll give my interpretation of each.

Here he votes for Swayde for role playing, which is fine. The part I'm interested in is where he says that Day one is 'basically random.' Whenever someone says 'random' with regard to lynching, my ears perk up. Random implies that events are really beyond our control. When anyone says 'random' with regard to lynching, I always hear 'Townies, don't get too hung up on really looking for mafia on Day one...it's really random and beyond our control.' Throughout his posts, JL66 claims that things are 'random' five different times (I've highlighted in red), and doesn't back off until Z calls him on it.

I vote to lynch Swayde

Day one is basicly random, even with the newbie slips. I am voting for Swayde because they were the first to role play.

On a side note, I am home and I will be able to be online more. I also have lots of work to catch up on, but I will be able to pay more attention to what is going on.

I am going to post some pics from the fishing trip. I might even take some updated tank pictures.

I need to rest some after my vacation...

Here he claims that only luck comes into play on Day one. So using your brain really may not help all that much... Also claims his vote for Swayde was 'random.'

Day one is random.

We will get to see how people act and what they do.

Someone is going to get lynched. We are hoping to get lucky and lynch a mafia member. It will be luck.

I am concerned with the attack that was given back at me for my vote. I gave my reason for my vote. In no way did I call Swayde mafia or even think there was any reason to think she was mafia. I voted her because she was the first role player. Seems like a good "random" vote to me, maybe it is "left field".

Another quote that screams to me, 'Townies grab a cold one and sit back...try not to think too hard about who might be mafia as it really won't help,'

Right now, everyone is suspect. To think any different is very dangerous. What was in the past is the past. There are new mafia.

We are in the dark. A lot of our information will come from the mafia hits. Watching how people vote can be helpful, but it is not as helpful these first few days.
We also have players who can investigate. They have to lay low themselves, last game the mayor was a very high mafia choice. As a town, we have to do our best not to lynch the detective and/or mayor. We have been lucky with a couple of good doctors the last few games.

I also think the players that have played more need to keep in mind that the some of the new players are just excited. I also think that it is real good advise for the new players to read the older games. I watched game 1 and was into it before I ever played.

This has to be the busiest first day ever.

Newbies really need to read a little bit more of the old games. I also am a little uneasy about someone being 100% positive that someone (let alone two people) is mafia at this point and willing to die for it.

Where is judgemax? I hope she has a reason for her lack of posting.

Another one, 'Guys stop thinking so hard it won't do you any good....on day one your brain is your worst enemy, just flip a coin.'

This first day is random. All this talk of mafia tells and all this is just keeping us confused. It is a lot of smoke and mirrors. People are reading too much into this first day of posts.

The last three games (and the next three) I have voted for the first person to role play on the first day of voting. I have never asked anyone to vote with me or to follow my lead. It is my own "protest" to the role playing.

All we are going to do is learn. Day one the innocent are going to look mafia and mafia are going to look innocent. This really never changes, but as the game goes on, stuff starts to add up.

We have no Mayor this round, which I just read, I missed that part at the start of the thread. It seems that this game might just favor the mafia.

I am at this point a little freaked out by OgreMvK. I am not sure if it is left over from other games or what. There is something odd. I also am concerned with IceH2O. It almost seems that the two of them have "staged" something. It might be nothing, but wanted to bring it out.

As far as the new people, I have no real read. It is great to see them when they get a vote against them. They sure squirm. Mike and Swayde have been very enjoyable.

Last game almost everyone looked guilty, now there are more mafia than ever and no one really stands out to me.

But, it is Day One

Night one falls and MND is saved by the Dr. JL66 says 'Good Job Doctor,' not sure what that means though. He later backs off and advises against the doctor interfering w/ lynches. Also makes a case for Coler being the Don (which he backs off of when disagreed with). Maybe trying to subtly say 'Don't worry about the Don guys, we got him.' If anyone remembers Mafia 4, Judge was saved by Dr. Dangerdoll. I still thought that Judge could have been mafia, and just been hit by the Don. JL66 came out strongly saying he could see no reason EVER for the mafia hitting their own. Now he could see the Don offing himself on Night 1. Even with a botched hit it would be too risky of a move for the mafia.

I did not know the Doctor could save someone from a lynching.

Good Job Doctor.

Sorry to see Coler gone.

The more I think about last nights events, the more I think that there is something going on. This game seems to almost favor the mafia, they have one more member and the town has one less power role. I am not even sure there is a vigilante (I will go back and read).

I see a strong case for Coler being the Don and taking the chance on the botched hit. If he died, the mafia would still have strong numbers and the town would follow his list. If he survived, the town would follow him and if investigated he would show up as innocent.

Also, the doctor protecting Miken does not prove that he is innocent, it only proves the the doctor thinks he is innocent.

I am going to read some more...

Still saying that Coler might be the Don....'relax guys, we got him.' Also gives a list of candidates for mafia (no explanations on any) and votes for MND.

Just because judgemax shows up does not mean that she is innocent.

I was not for the idea of lynching her if she was just going to die anyway. She is now high on my list of suspects. I need clairifaction that only the Don can investigate and that the mafia can not vote in another Don. I am still very suspect of Coler being the Don. I am also suspect of following his posts before dying.

I also caught something strange on one of Ogre's post. I will try to cut and pasted when I am not working, but he said something about 2 teams of mafia.

I had not read this and I am unsure where he got that from that there are 2 sets of mafia, one vocal and one silent.

There are some things not adding up and I think it will get real interesting the next few days.

My list is:

OgreMvk
ZSandmann
judgemax
iceH2O
MikenDanielle
Swayde

I also think some of the new people need watched.

I vote to lynch MikenDanielle

Mostly because he is new and we wanted him lynched the day before. The Doctor saving him hurt the town. We learned nothing last night.

This is a response to a post by Ogre where Ogre posts his own list. JL66 notes that his and Ogre's lists are similar, so somehow that may clear Ogre (who was on his list) in his mind? Also backs off of the 'Coler may be Don' at this point.

Here was his post. I do not see where he said he did it with his crew of mafia. I do remember that they had big plans that game, but where unable to use them.

I do not think my list is just vocal players. My list is close to OgreMvK, maybe he should not be on my list. I just noticed that. I will attempt to do a list of something later. I should be working. My list does need tweaking.

I also agree that if only the mafia Don can investigate, then hitting himself makes no sense. So Coler was not the Don or mafia. If we find out that the rest of them can investigate, then my hunch is back on.

Here he has a pleasant exchange with Swayde (I think) about how the detective investigates.

and the Detective, who can investigate them.

But I do agree with this somewhat, do they really need that power? Has it helped them before. When it comes to it, any of us dead helps them.

Last game I was suspicous of the who botched hit thing. Maybe they rolled the dice this game, I am unsure. I guess we might know in 6 days.

For now, I am going to assume that Coler was innocent and the mafia killed him because he is a good player. My guess is that the next hit will be another good player, maybe the doctor will save someone from the mafia this time. I need to check, but can the doctor be mafia?

As far as I can tell the doctor did the town no favor by saving a lynched player. We are still where we were yesterday, just down one good player.

Here mentions that DP should be on more people's lynch list for saying he's innocent right away. Really? It luckily worked on CL in Mafia 4, but do folks really buy into that anyone who does this MUST be guilty?

I think the Doctor is innocent and with the town. See how it was defined for the Vigilante that they could be either.

I also looked at page one. Dwarf Puffer should be on most of our lists. Looks like a CL move, I kinda forgot about it.

Admits to not reading the rules...okay. Here's where it gets really interesting. Note that a train for MikenDanielle has begun to form again, and JohnLarson66 wants to make sure the townies realize that the Doctor could save him again. Although he ends up on Mike, he mentions three times in three different posts (highligted in orange) that the Doctor may save Mike again and that he's then moving on to another candidate. Is he subtly trying to steer folks away from Mike for some reason? JL66 says he doesn't think that Madcrawdad is mafia, but getting anyone to vote for someone other than MND on Day 2 would have been a nail in my coffin.

I am real guilty of not reading the rules. I thought this game had a mayor and had the botched hit. Seems there is neither.

Of course Coler was not mafia, nor the Don. The only way they would try that is if there was the 50/50 chance of the botched hit. I also think this is the first game that the doctor could save someone from a lynching.

I am kinda embarressed about skimming over the rules.

There are sure a lot of posts and most to the role playing is already gone. It is good that we are getting down to talking about things that matter.

We are in not much better place than we were yesterday. Besides being down a good player, we are right where we were.

If the town votes to lynch Mike and the Doctor saves him, then we will be down 2 players and still have not learned anything. I am concerned about this, because we could just be wasting our time. If the Doctor is sure that Mike is innocent then I can understand why they are saving them.

Maybe voting for Mike is the same as voting for nobody. If that is the case then that is bad for the town.
I can understand the spot the Doctor is in. So as a town, we either need to vote for someone else or we need to get the doctor to understand that protecting one of us from being lynched is bad for the town. It is like veto power.

I hope some other town members can talk about this so we can get through to the doctor. I sure wish they woud have protected Coler instead.

Here's one where he responds to MND's plan to make an offer right before he's lynched. JL responds that he should go ahead and make it now if he wants people to be able to have time to lynch someone else (Madcrawdad).

An offer we can't refuse.

I am curious of what this can be. I see no reason to wait. I think you should make your offer now.

You are just asking for more votes, plus if you want people to change, it would be best to have them do it early.

At this point, I am not sure if you help the mafia or help the town. I think it is neither. You certainly are not helping yourself either, but as long as you are having fun, that is all that matters. This is just a game.

I also think it is strange that DP names comes back up in talks and then they want to quit. We shall see if they really quit. I think anyone that wants to quit and does not quit, by voting or something to aviod a embarressing death, needs lynched.

Back to Mike, if we vote to lynch him and the Doctor saves him, I am moving on to someone else. It seems we are willing to take the chance on the doctor not saving him, so my vote stays put. I can not think of any "offer" that Mike can make that would make me change my mind.

I think you already are "going out with bang".

I do not understand why you would keep something back. I am trying to figure out what in the world you are doing. You already had tried the offer of if they are not mafia, I will kill myself on day one, which by the way made no sense to anyone. You wanting us to take two people down before you, at this point makes zero sense. What if all three are innocent, what does that prove?

The only reason why I would not vote for you (and my understanding why some are not voting for you) is to not waste a lynch on someone that the Doctor will save. If the Docotor saves you this round, I am moving on.

What is the short list?

Here JL responds to the fact that he's now on Z's list of mafia suspects. No biggie, though, JL points out that he's not on Ogre's list though.

Well it is not the same as being on one of OgreMvK's list, but fair enough.

I am not sure why you feel you might be a mafia target to get hit. I also think we learn lots from who the mafia does not hit.

There is a lot of finger pointing going on and really as a town, we are in the dark. There has been lots of posts, but really we are not very far along.

I also think there is a trend to go after vocal people and I think we need to be cautous at this point of the game. I feel we have lost a day and we are pretty far behind. I also think this game is stacked against us.

I do not think anyone is convinced that Mike is mafia, but I do not think anyone has another canidate, besides Madcrawdad, and I just do not see it.

I guess if convinced I would change, but I really need something more to go on. I am not even sure if he is on my own list, which I have not taken too seriously anyway. We are still basicly random.

Here Z calls JL on using 'random' so freely.

See I don't think we are still random at all, and the random mentality is the number one thing that ticks my radar with you. I know it is how you tend to play at the beginning but you just seem to be trying to subtly alter the popular opinion. If you want a third person to consider I ask you to go back and find my post from last night on Hooked Newbie, He's being overshadowed by the drama but I think he is a very strong candidate.

Now JL starts to back off of the 'random' usage.

I can understand the not thinking we are random. The only way to see that is looking back. We will only know that we were random and in the dark after the fact. Maybe random is not the best choice of words to use.

The popular opinion on these early days is what concerns me. A lot of times people are railroaded to get lynched and we do not see it until later. Sometimes the mafia is behind, sometimes not.

We will learn much from these first few days. So maybe instead of random, we are learning.

I expect to be a suspect and I suspect everyone. A far as the scaled lists go, being a 4, 5, or 6 is not so bad.

If the Vigilante is mafia, are they counted in with the mafia?

This could change the odds even more.

The mafia would not hit one of its own members, except maybe their own Don after they were out of investigations, which is highly unlikely.

I can say this, Day Three is going to be very interesting.

I will read more on that later. Maybe rbishop can explain.

I thought last time the vigilante was assigned to be innocent, was KOTD the vigilante last time, maybe he can clairfy this, if allowed.

I would understand if the town or the mafia did not know who they were and which side they were on. If they are assigned mafia, then are they accounted for.

If they get to choose, who would be against the town? I think they are assigned. But it did say "Total Wild Card"

I disagree, posting is how we learn. The more posts the better. Well not personal attacks and insane stuff. I am not a big fan of the role playing, but have never thought of it as a mafia tactic.

I am more weary of those that do not post much than those that post lots. I think if you read the first three games you will see the town lynched every vocal person very quickly and most were innocent.

There are lots of people playing and there are going to be lots of posts. Most of us that have played are certainly "into it". I feel bad for Coler that he just has to watch, I know he is dying to play. I would hate to die on the first few days.

Posting is good for the town.

Here's his response to my post naming those who appear on the snitch's list. The main thing I wanted to point out was his response to the fact that we lost 4 townies in one night. He says "it's not as bad as it looks." What's he trying to do, lull the townies back to sleep? It's really bad. Let's say we started with 24 (including 7 mafia). In 2 days we've lost 5 townies, and are now at 12 vs. 7. It's really do or die time...unless we start hitting mafia now, this thing's over.

Which two? The top three seem to be not as vocal and you seem to be on a few "lists".

I can't beleive Clown-Lover died. Was it from quitting or lack of voting? I know they have been posting.

We lost 4, but really 2 were quitting and maybe the third (CL2). Players that start and then quit are not good for the town if they are innocent. I kinda think Mike wanted to be mafia.

With that said, it is not as bad as it looks, even thought my first response was WTF!

We have a list of four names that we know one is mafia. That is much better than we have had until now. I just do not think we can lose 3 while trying to find 1.

I think we all have some reading to do.

Here he wants to downplay the snitch's list, although I think we need to tread carefully there, but we know at least one is mafia. Also suspicious of DP.

Do we put that much weight on the list, it is about the same as the start of the game. If anything we should treat all 4 as innocent (75% correct) and focus on the rest of the town. It makes the rest of the mafia easier to find.

I am suspicous of Dwarf Puffers at this time.

I am also curious about OgreMvK and why he thinks 2 people know he is innocent. The Doctor did not save him and who knows what the Detective has found.

btw, thanks Doc for letting the town lynch as planned, it would have been total kaos if you would have saved Mike again.

The Detective will really need to wait until they have a good amount of confirmed mafia before they can really help the town.

I also had a list before. I am not sure how good it was, I think I need to examine it and try to come up with a list. Is bkw1982 playing? I have not seen many posts.

I am going to study this post a bit and place a vote. I want to vote before I go to bed.

Stake your life on what?

I think I am missing something. I also think I pay an abnormally amount of time reading your posts and look too hard at times. I do that with ZSandmann and Coler also. There is a handful of players here that are way into it.

I think this game is fun, but I am concerned that Clown-Lover was not having fun. It almost looks like mee-mee is not having fun also.

Please remember folks this is a GAME. Being called a liar in this game is not a personal attack, the fact is that there are at least 7 people out of us that are in fact lying. It is part of the game.

So if I read too much into what you are posting, please take it as part of the game.

Here's a scaled mafia list posted by JL. 10 is innocent, 1 is mafia. IMO its a really safe list. He's even leaning innocent on every person named by the snitch. DD & CL he's leaning mafia because they're 'always a suspect'? Not saying that they're innocent, but, what does that mean? No real plausible information about what put some of the folks at such a high mafia read. Lists Ogre and Ice as mafia because of the 'Ogre vs Ice' thing, and then mentions a 'Z vs. Madcrawdad' thing that I didn't realize existed. Fortunately Z remains at neutral, and I'm listed as innocent though. Goes on to vote for DP...what's with DP? DP could be mafia, but how about going after someone for what they've done, and not what they haven't.
Okay, back to my scaled list.

Here is my list.

jpappy 789 (6) leaning innocent
Dangerdoll (4) always a suspect
IceH2O (4) dangerous - the Ogr vs Ice thing is a red flag
bkw1982 (3) never seen this quiet - not sure if has contributed
OgreMkV (4) dangerous - the Ogr vs Ice thing is a red flag
judgemax (10) dead - quit
MikenDanielle (10) dead - lynched going to quit
Dwarf Puffers (2) posted wanted to quit
sploke (6) leaning innocent
Hooked Newbie (10) dead - hit by mafia
johnlarson66 (5) myself
ZSandmann (5) mixed read at times I think is mafia then others not
plantling (6) on snitch list
KingOfTheDeep (6) on snitch list
joander123 (4) are they even playing? Red flag maybe scared from last game
Cory Lover (4) always a suspect
Swayde (7) leaning innocent - seems interested in the game and town
Coler (10) dead - hit by mafia
charlie_stubbs (5) mixed read - into the game - I think they are hooked
mee-mee (6) on snitch list
Jensons (5) dangerous -no real read - played mafia well in the past
nickmcmechan (3) was real quiet and then got active - wanted the town not to post as much
Madcrawdad (6) on snitch list
clown-lover (10) dead - quit


I am not real solid on any of it, but wanted to make one for my own benefit and thought I should share it.

The Ogre vs Ice thing has me wondering how it got started and I will spend more time on that later. I also think there is a ZS vs Mad thing going on. Both "things" are a red flag to me. Maybe all four are innocent, heck maybe all four are mafia. Something does not seem right. They do tend to make themselves into a group at times. Maybe they are just more vocal.

At this point, I think there are more important targets. I put all the people on the snitch list as a 6, just because they are on the list. There are different cases for each. I think the snitch wants the mafia to win, but I am not sure. I need to read that rule so more.

I vote to lynch Dwarf Puffer

I think they are trying to hide under the radar and when they were brought up acted like they were quitting.

Okay, it looks like the snitch, while being one of the mafia is really for us.

So them having 7 is more like having only 6. We have an inside man (or woman).

So there list is to help the town.

I think this give us a better chance than I thought. I have been more hung up on the vigilante than the snitch so far.

This one is really odd. I think the snitch is on our side? THE SNITCH IS MAFIA.... Claims to have reread the rules, but still acts confused? Is he trying to subtly guide the town to Madcrawdad again? Claims that we'll lynch mafia tonight...not if he stays parked on DP. Not saying DP ain't mafia, but there's probably better choices.

I think the snitch is on our side. But, I am not 100% sure.

Does anyone else read it that way?

I think it makes a difference.

I would like to see the 4 people on the list post their thoughts if they think the snitch is for the town or against the town. I would like others to post if possible.

If the list is on the side of the town, well it looks bad for Madcrawdad. If the list is on the side of the mafia, well it looks like has confused us all - three quiet ones and one vocal one.

The whole snitch thing is new to all of us. Nice twist rbishop.

Part of me thinks rbishop wants the mafia to win or atleast have a chance.

I think we will lynch one tonight. The town seems to do good on day 3.

Once again, still sticking with the vote to lynch DP.

Is this a mafia ploy?

I am not sure. I do not understand signing up for this game and not wanting to play. I am glad there are so many posts. To my surprise, there has not been a bunch or role playing, but still lots of posts. I think we have good quality posts.

My vote still stays.

Like I said earlier, JL66 is a smart player and has proven himself at ferreting out mafia in the past. His game seems really laid back this time, and he seems to be repeating some subliminal messages over and over which make him look pretty shady in my book. He's also tried to look helpful to the town by giving some general advice, he hasn't really jumped into the fray on anyone anywhere....playing a really safe game IMO. I don't think he's a townie power player either. Doesn't make sense that he would completely sit back and not really help the town. Does anyone else see this? I think we got a 'keeper' here.

 

[Dangerdoll]

Hi,

Wow, alot has happened.

Folks, your watching history in the making, CL makes his first ever list of all players still alive!:headbang2:

Ok, here goes nothing.

1=Mafia

10=Innocent

Ice=3
Dwarf Puffers=3
Madcrawdad=3.5
Swayde=4
joander=4
nickmcmechan=4
jpappy=5
DangerDoll=5
bkw=5
Ogre=5
johnlarson=5
KOTD=5
charlie_stubbs=5
mee-mee=5
ZSandmann=6
Plantling=6
Jensons=6
sploke=7
Cory Lover=10

With that, I vote to lynch Ice for now.

CL

CL.... you died yesterday

 

[Madcrawdad]

CL.... you died yesterday

DD you're confusing Cory Lover with Clown Lover

 

[Dangerdoll]

oh.... these acronyms will be the death of me, sorry

 

[Dangerdoll]

guys, I'm headed off to bed. It's been a long and rough day for me. I will be back into the swing of things tomorrow though... nite nite my fellow townies

 

[Rbishop]

Update....6:49 PM EST...thru post 1234...

to lynch....

cory by DD 1229

ice by sploke 1209 ogre 1218 joan 1220 cory 1226

dwarf by jl66 1091 plant 1148

ogre by charlie 1121 swayde 1169

No One by mee-mee 1104

charlie by nick 1211

swayde by zsand 1219

12 of 19 voting....

 

[Dangerdoll]

I'm sorry rb, I meant to vote DP.... I remove my vote from CL

and vote to lynch DP

 

[ZSandmann]

RB: DD mixed up her abbriviations. She meant DP, although she forgot to bold the correction.

 

[IceH2O]

The snitch is mafia, therefore AGAINST the town. If the snitch were for the town, I wouldn't be the only one in trouble as the snitch could name up to 4 mafia players if they desired...we'd all be sunk. The snitch doesn't win the game if the mafia doesn't win the game.

Darn it Mad, you played me, played me well. But I think you messed up here.

I no longer trust you, I don't even care if you're the Don, still one less mafia

BTW: Sway, that vote change makes no sense. if you think Mad is the Don, then he's still gone. we'll get the truth eventually... but we only have a day or two left (because of everyone dropping out) until the mafia win. If you are sure Mad is mafia, then you should vote for him.

Totally agree

This is starting to tick me off. Why won't you read what I write? Don't try to read between the lines, I'm not subtle. I never defended Madcrawdad.

I asked everyone for the evidence against him. You have never complied. Ice has never complied. No one has ever complied with my request... except recently with charlie (who was never voting for mad).

That's one major reason that I think he's mafia. And you and Ice. You vote, but no one will answer a simple question. I even posted all Mad's posts and no-one followed up... not you... not Ice. And that's a reason for clumping the three of you in mafia.

Go ahead and form a lynch train. You'll be done tomorrow.

I might not have answered your post but I stated why I changed to Mad, over Mike, and thought he was mafia. He was to hard on Mike,who I thought was innocent, and voting for Sway who did nothing but make a revenge vote. Hard on a person but doesn't vote for them? Did he not vote for Mike because he didn't want his name associated with the death of an innocent?

At the time of your post I wasn't thinking Mad was mafia, he pulled an Ice ( as someone put it so elegantly), and had me believing me was innocent. But I think he messed up on post 1108 and hoped no one would catch it. Thanks to Charlie, its something important we all needed to see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plantling View Post
It's quite early in the game yet to be sure who's who, but I am also thinking along the lines that some "planted" episodes have occurred.

Makes me wonder if Plant isn't the snitch.



I don't care that you guys vote for me, you'll see I'm innocent and the odds will be less in our favor. The game is rigged for the mafia to win anyway. There really isn't any way around it and never was. 1 investigator to find 7 mafia and the Don will show as innocent. How is this even close to possible? Then with all the innocents bailing it makes it even worse.

I Don't want to bail but lynching me gets me out of the game.I'll work as hard to rid the game of mafia if I stay but I won't be playing any other games till after the middle of August. I need to prepare for my fantasy football leagues. I don't pay to play I pay to win them. The payouts aren't much but its worth playing.

Votes don't need to be in until Saturday at 5 AM so I reserve my right to vote till tomorrow.

 

[Rbishop]

Votes are due in at 5 AM EST, Friday, 7/27.....