Mafia 61: The Gunslinger - Game Thread

[jbradt]

I heard your grumbling Z and decided to go back and look through. I may have been too hasty in my judgment, but I'm still not sure.

Woot! Strawberry Cheesecake Townie reporting in.

This stuck out to a few people as an odd first post.

So I wonder why the Mafia chose Ice first?

This was an interesting question for a minute, but took the town a long time to put down as a topic. Could be just innocent day one banter; could be an early attempt at distraction/misdirection.

Ice Ice Baby, too cold too cold

Keeping the post count up.

Aren't you all?

:X

More keeping the post count up.

Well its going to be WIFOM this early.

The Mafia are probably afraid of Ice so they picked him hoping this early in the game he couldn't pin one of them down and therefore he will get himself killed. This is especially true if folks don't get talkie early. In my opinion the 48 hours should begin once everyone has posted. At least for Day 1.

Response to Annie's redirection of his question. And more potential misdirection, about rules.

The Strawberry cheescake thing was a joke guys, jeez.

Molehill =/= Mountain

Defense.

Yeah well with my propensity for picking PRs this is my kind of game as Mafia are the only PRs. But losing the Gunslinger is the way we lose the game, so let's not do that.



That's not nearly Z-ish enough. What's your favorite icecream flavor would have been accepted.

I no clue who I'd hit right now, not enough people have chimed in.

A near answer to Ice's first question, then more nonsense and a convenient excuse for not having an opinion.

Thinking on this format overnight and Ice I don't think shooting a low-poster is a good idea. The Sherriff needs to be a bit of a leader for the Town. A low or non-poster isn't going to do that, they aren't going to be reading and rereading posts or asking questions. IMO, at least for Day 1, you should target one of the loud people. If they are Mafia, that's awesome, if not at least we have someone to pick up the badge Tomorrow.

It seems strange to me that you would be trying to tell Ice how to play his game. Ice is experienced enough and has been pretty clear in telling us what he wants. You'll get to make those decisions if you get shot AND IF you're not scum.

I think before the 48 hours is up we should all post a "vote" and that way at least Ice will have the opinion of the masses to work with in his decision. I still need to hear from more players before I point at anyone in particular.

I actually like this idea, but I would have liked it a lot more coming from Ice. From any one else, I can see it being a mafia ploy to be able to manipulate the situation.

Well I am not at all confortable with any of this yet but here is my run down for you Ice. To be honest I went back to the beginning and pulled the player list as I couldn't remember everyone that is in.

I'm excluding myself naturally and I'm excluding you Ice. This leaves:

Agassizii
Annie
Dawg
JB
JPappy
Kash
Lab
Razzle
TRS
Zaffy

I've seen nothing but helpfulness from Kash, Pappy, and Dawg so far. I may not agree with their logic in some instances but I see this round as a logic puzzle and they are all trying their own approaches. JB is also in this group but going on my own thoughts that a high poster is likely Mafia and that a high poster makes him a good Sherriff I pick him from the fray. Plus to be honest he had me so off kilter last game I am a bit on tilt.

For two middle-of-the-roadies, I'd go with Agass and Lab because its what all the cool kids are doing. Honestly I have nothing but feelings on these two. And for a forth I'd go with Razz. They haven't posted and it seems like it would be a good way to keep at least one Mafium off the radar for a while. After all why would you put your life on the line shooting someone that hasn't said a word.

My list:
JB
AGass
Lab
Razz

Actually this seems like an honest and insightful run down, and I can see where you're coming from with most of your points. Even your reasoning for choosing me as a target.

You confused me with Rich? I have as many posts as anyone in this thread, I'm confused and hurt.

A little sensitive there, champ? Nothing like pointing out your high post count at the same time as buffering that very count! Good job here!

Pretty generic he says, grumble grumble...

I'm seeing a lot of posts, but not a WHOLE LOT of content. I admit, you have made a couple good points. I'm not seeing a whole lot either way really. Which for a vet of your standing, sticks out to me a little as an attempt to blend in.

Welcome to the game Razz, I was pretty sure Mad made it know when we'd start, but you are here now so reread and give Ice some names, its the only chance the Town has this game. Everyone needs to be active and contribute.

What Agass meant was it showed at the bottom of the thread here that you were viewing the thread for a long while before you finally posted.

Giving Razz some... razzing. Kicking bushes? Maybe...

To be honest, I don't know what to think about Z at this point. Same as everyone else. But I guess I would expect a little more overtly pro-town stance from a vet... at least, an innocent vet. You yourself said we all need to "be active and contribute". I'm seeing one of those in your posts, not so much the other. Maybe it's just me.

 

[jbradt]

I'm torn on low posters, it's possible that they are hiding behind post count. But, some of those guys don't post a lot anyway. So they're a crap shoot imo.
JB. He's pretty intent on the idea that a previous mafia player is mafia this round as well. Madcrawdad said that roles were chosen randomly. It's possible that previous mafia players are mafia this round, but it's not really evidence.
Zsand - was the first really to point a finger. At Annie, finger pointing this early could be bush kicking, or a tinfoil conspiracy.
Annie - He says some scummy things, not sure if he's just that bold, or is trying to bush kick.
Dawg - Because nothing stands out from what he's said, and that stands out to me.





The benefit I can see is if an inexperienced player gets lucky with a shot, then we're sitting in better shape without risking much. If you shoot an innocent and die, your replacement will have a 40% chance to hit scum. Those aren't great odds, but they're not terrible either. A better player may increase those odds, so it might be better to save them for later as well.

Zaffy... Yes, I am intent on the fact that one of us evils from last game are evil again. Look at the probability: If you take the 4 of us communicators from last game: me, you, lab, ice, that's 1/4 of the total population of the town. We know that 1/4 of the town is mafia. It makes sense that one of us has a good chance of being evil. We all know that's not Ice. And I know that it's not me. So yes, I'm looking at both you and lab with a critical eye. I also believe either of you would be a good choice for next sheriff if innocent.

g/o Sorry to hear about the bad luck. hope everything eases up soon. g/o

 

[Zaffy]

Zaffy... Yes, I am intent on the fact that one of us evils from last game are evil again. Look at the probability: If you take the 4 of us communicators from last game: me, you, lab, ice, that's 1/4 of the total population of the town. We know that 1/4 of the town is mafia. It makes sense that one of us has a good chance of being evil. We all know that's not Ice. And I know that it's not me. So yes, I'm looking at both you and lab with a critical eye. I also believe either of you would be a good choice for next sheriff if innocent.

g/o Sorry to hear about the bad luck. hope everything eases up soon. g/o

I'm with you, for the most part on the numbers. 1/3 of the town is scum actually. 8 Good guys, 4 scum. I see where you're coming from with your logic. But calling it evidence against someone is a fallacy. It's a correlation that you're observing here. I agree that it's possible, maybe even likely for someone who was scum last game to be scum again this game. But going on that alone will lose more than win.

g/o thanks

 

[jbradt]

I'm with you, for the most part on the numbers. 1/3 of the town is scum actually. 8 Good guys, 4 scum. I see where you're coming from with your logic. But calling it evidence against someone is a fallacy. It's a correlation that you're observing here. I agree that it's possible, maybe even likely for someone who was scum last game to be scum again this game. But going on that alone will lose more than win.

g/o thanks

Good catch... my math skills get a little off sometimes. :huh:

 

[IceH2O]

You should rethink your theory on that, Dawg. Mad told us in the first post that all roles were random. I don't believe for a moment that he would lie to us about this.

If the roles were hand picked, Mad wouldn't have said anything at all.

See the red part, below...

I'd never take into consideration that roles are random no matter how big and bolded a line states they are.

 

[IceH2O]

Ok I'd like to have had more input but more then half the town threw their 2 cents in.

One player I really would like input from is TRS.
Who would you shoot today TRS? Lets see if that esp is working.

I have possible teams in my head. I think there is a lot of distancing going on. The mafia IMO is loud and out front pointing fingers at one another in hopes that since we have limited number of shots that if we hit one we will not hit the others they've been attacking.

I'm still not positive on teammates. I have a shot in mind and if thats correct a 2nd shot. But after that it becomes muddled.

I'm throwing this info out for 2 reasons. I hope it narrows the field for the innocents and helps them and also want to see how my suspects react.

 

[AnniesNotOK]

This was the other thread I wanted to pull. Annie has since posted again to explain this, but I'm not real satisfied with his comments. So I'll address that newer post here as well.



So let me get this straight, Annie:

1. If you are mafia - You consider me, Jpappy, and Ice as the biggest mafia threat.

2. If you are innocent (and Ice shoots you then dies) - You already know you would shoot either Jpappy or me next when you become the gunslinger.

I don't get this. If Ice shoots you and dies it's because you're innocent... NOT MAFIA. Why then would an innocent wish to shoot someone for the stated reason that they are dangerous to the mafia?

I'm having trouble reading this post while considering what your thought pattern must have been while you were writing it. This one doesn't add up because your reasoning doesn't match your statements... unless it's an indication that your head is in mafia mode of thinking.

In reality, if you were innocent and decided to kill me or Jpappy.. your reason would be it's because we're good at being evil, NOT because we're dangerous to the mafia. LOL!

Right?

Now, here's the post Annie just made in response to Jpappy.



Red Part -- The first post I quoted above (from yesterday) says NOTHING about either of us (me or Jpap) being evil and nothing about the way we play this game when we're scum. Annie was talking about who poses the greatest threat to the mafia in this game right now when he made that post yesterday. Today, it seems he's trying to spin this the opposite way. All in all, I have the impression that Annie wants to take us out either way from what I've been reading. For a player to have an agenda like that from the git-go on the first day of Day 1 seems suspicious to me.

Blue Part -- If Jpap and I are better at playing an analytical game... it's only better from the mafia's point of view to take us out early... BEFORE there's any data to analyze and BEFORE either of us could come up with something useful to help the town side win this game.

You're still not making any pro-town points here, Annie.

Kash- If you are not mafium, then I conclude you are the biggest threat to them. If you are mafium, you're the biggest threat to us. While the reasoning is weak, I have both you and Jpap leaning scum because you weren't selected as the first Gunslinger. I believe you weren't selected because one or both of you was the person choosing the Gunslinger. Again I will admit this is more of a gut feeling than anything else. If I were to take a shot now, I would shoot you or Jpap at this point. If I was wrong, at least I've given the gun to a more experienced player

Red Part- looks like a lot of double talk.

Blue part- correct. I am stating that if I were choosing a Gunslinger, and you were innocent, I would have chosen you first and forced you to make your desicion with as little information as possible. But somehow I don't think that is the case my spaghetti slurping friend.

 

[ZSandmann]

I heard your grumbling Z and decided to go back and look through. I may have been too hasty in my judgment, but I'm still not sure.

*Snip*

That's your opinion and I respond with a resounding ditto. There are a good number of people with "high" post counts so far. The fact is this is a low posting game. There is little to track this early with no votes to cast, so its really a worst case Day 1 scenario. I don't post if I don't have something to say. I may sit here for hours and read and reread but I may not say a word. I will make joke posts too, not to inflate counts, but to add levity. That's part of whyI do my "questions", but its also to guage responses to things that are irrelevant to the game.

I'd never take into consideration that roles are random no matter how big and bolded a line states they are.

I have no reason to believe MAd isn't being honest about random roles, in the past I have both hadn-picked and used random number generators to assign roles. I've also randomly assigned and then tweeked the results a bit. Regardless I don't think that's a helpful line of thought this early. Better to stick to behaviors to pin down targets.

Ok I'd like to have had more input but more then half the town threw their 2 cents in.

One player I really would like input from is TRS.
Who would you shoot today TRS? Lets see if that esp is working.

I have possible teams in my head. I think there is a lot of distancing going on. The mafia IMO is loud and out front pointing fingers at one another in hopes that since we have limited number of shots that if we hit one we will not hit the others they've been attacking.

I'm still not positive on teammates. I have a shot in mind and if thats correct a 2nd shot. But after that it becomes muddled.

I'm throwing this info out for 2 reasons. I hope it narrows the field for the innocents and helps them and also want to see how my suspects react.

Good to know you've got some ideas Ice, I don't envy your position today, that's for sure.

 

[ZSandmann]

Ice, I don't have 4 suspects yet. If I had to pick out 4 names right now, I'd have to start flipping some coins to do that.

The best lead I see so far is Annie... but I'm leaning him more likely mafia than neutral -- which isn't strong enough yet to direct a shot at him.

Of the more active posters, there seems to be split emerging with Jbradt/Dawg on one side and Jpappy/Zsand on the other. Of those choices, I'd probably lean with Jpappy and Zsand myself.. I'm finding their posts to be well considered and helpful. This is pretty weak, though, and from all 4 of those players, I would expect some of it may be contrived... as in distancing. Bears watching is all I can say for now.

Agass has been posting some good points, I feel. The suspicions on Lab-Rat seem overstated from the posts LR has made. I attributed her post saying it'd be fun to be gunslinger more a case of enthusiasm over caution.. I don't know the player well enough to tell if this is a good scum-tell or not. This seems to be what got Jbradt to post LR as a leading suspect, along with Jpappy. I wasn't watching the thread whenever Razzle was viewing it... so I don't have first-hand info to decide whether that's an issue or not.

I'll keep working at this and I need to pull a few posts... one where I misread something and another that makes me curious.

Back soon.

Kash you said you couldn't give Ice four names without flipping coins but then you did a great job of running through six or so players that you were thinking about. The second half of this post was exactly what Ice wanted to see, my question is why did you preface it with the statement that you couldn't pick? He just wants our thoughts to add to his own, you've done that but at the same time you devalued your list with that opening comment. I don't think any of us are very certain at this point, but there's a long seperation between coin flipping (probablitiy) and hunches.

 

[Madcrawdad]

Tonight's Gunslinger deadline falls at 7:05 PM CST. This means that any shot must be taken BEFORE 7:05 PM CST chimes on the AC clock. Any targeting/shot post must have a time-stamp of 7:04 PM CST (or earlier), for at 7:05 the deadline passes.

Remember, shots must be bolded in order to count.