Mafia 94: When Gingers Attack; the play

[jpappy789]

Ok...for the sake of my sanity maybe I should have decided to just go to bed instead of attempt to post here. I apologize if any of my thoughts are unclear or jumbled but it is hard for me to restrain from trying to analyze things.

I'm going to end it on my thoughts as to why the serum wasn't used.

1) They didn't "need" to attempt the turn

This plays into both 2H's and Razz's theories although I acknowledge they are somewhat mutually exclusive ways of thinking. I could see how not having a likely chance of losing any scummates would make it less prudent to try and gain another member. But it still would act as a benefit even if there were no scum up either so that wouldn't explain why it wasn't used, necessarily.

2) Whomever is Jessica or maybe the whole team just forgot or didn't come to that decision in time

I think this is a pretty likely scenario that people may not be considering, at least not within the thread...although I think Chill mentioned it too.

Personally, I don't think the use, or lack there of, of the serum is going to play much if any role in my vote. It would require too much guessing to attempt to understand what is going on behind the scenes.

 

[TwoHobbies]

I fully agree with you on that type of play getting old, but I felt I had a stronger suspect with Plant or Kash. If I'd kept my vote on Pir it would have been because I was annoyed with his play, not because he was my best suspect. In hindsight I should have kept my vote on him.


This is an extremely bold statement. I have no idea how you can come to this conclusion so early in the game.


Interesting. I didn't pick up on anything in his play that would say PR. Did you see something that made you think he was a PR?


I can't say I'm leaning anyone on that list towards innocent. Your reasoning mystifies me. I understand they didn't use the serum but I don't see how that clears those on your list.


Why would they aim for a PR with the serum? Makes more sense to avoid a PR with the serum so they have the chance to turn someone. That ups their numbers while dropping townie numbers. They can take out PRs with hits. I do not understand where you are coming from with that statement Razz.




I have to admit I missed the part about the chance of it killing Jessica Rabbit. I was thinking it was 50/50 turn/kill for whoever it was used on. I couldn't figure out what a cartoon townie would look like. :duh: I need to get more sleep...

Not sure where you got the idea it was a conclusion. It's just a theory. Coun't easily be wrong, but it's what I going with tonight.

Just skimming tonight Lab, because that's my list of suspects, less Rich and AAF (up till now) although I'm still catching up on last nights posts.

 

[the wizard]

I need to vote before going to work and still am unclear on where it would be best placed.

JP brought up a point that I must say I completely missed. Dawg only bringing up that Rich was giving advise in the game about how the scum should use the serum and not mentioning Labby on the topic at all. Combine that with the fact that when he was posting about the vote switches he himself stated that he didn't include all the voting in his post.

I know he explained why but let's not forget Dawg is one of the few that can get away with slipping in the thread and explaining it away and no one thinks anything of it. (Not saying that was the case this time but it does make one pause.)

 

[the wizard]

Meanwhile, Pir has basically been absent since nightfall. The few posts he has made,I think there were three, make me wonder is tonight his UD?

Because of this possibility, I will not return my vote there tonight as it is hit or miss if I can sneak on the thread during the day once I vote it is pretty much there to stay for that reason.

 

[the wizard]

Would like to see something from 2H before voting as I really would like to be enlightened as to what made him say what he has since night fall.

 

[the wizard]

I don't have anymore time so

I vote to genetically test Dawg

I will try to get on with my phone if nothing else today to see his response it is more a gut feel than anything. Dawg is better than to bring up only one player for doing something another player was also doing.

 

[rich311k]

I do not have a good idea yet of anything.

Dawg confused me last night with that whole serum thing.
I am not sure what 2H is doing, He is making little sense to me. I guess I am just missing his logic.
Pir has been missing and I only have seen a bit of AAF mostly right after night fall.

I will most likely vote for one of those 4, but we shall see how the day goes.

 

[TwoHobbies]

What's your basis for this belief?

My belief is that there were no Gingers on the board last night. That's why the syrum wasn't used. The gingers had little to no chance to lose a member.

Vote count as of 3:40

Vote Count:

Pir (2): Labby, Wiz
Chill (1): Kash
Dawg (1): Plant
AAF (1): Rich
Plant (2): Pappy, 2H
Kash (2): Zaffy, Pir

Nightfall at 9pm Eastern.

Vote count as of 7:39, no one new except me. It's likely that the decission was made (if not before) somewhere between these two votes to not use the syrum.

Vote count:

Pir (2): Labby, Wiz
Chill (1): Kash
Dawg (1): Plant
AAF (1): Rich
Plant (2): Pappy, 2H
Kash (2): Zaffy, Pir
2H (1): LG

Vote count as of 8:08 no one new, same seven.

Vote count:

Pir (2): Wiz, AAF
Chill (1): Kash
Dawg (1): Plant
AAF (1): Rich
Plant (2): Pappy, 2H
Kash (2): Zaffy, Pir
2H (1): LG

Should be correct now.

Vote count as of 8:48 Lab added.

vote count:

Pir (4): Wiz, AAF, Dawg, Chill
Chill (1): Kash
Dawg (1): Plant
AAF (1): Rich
Plant (3): Pappy, 2H, Labby
Kash (2): Zaffy, Pir
2H (1): LG
Labby (1): DD

no vote from Razz... did I miss it?

Vote count 9:00 final, some moves, but no one new

Final vote count Night 1:

Pir (4): Wiz, AAF, Dawg, Razz
Chill (1): Kash
Dawg (1): Plant
Plant (4): Pappy, 2H, Labby, Rich
Kash (3): Zaffy, Pir, Chill
2H (1): LG
Labby (1): DD

JPap posted after my original post that I didn't really eliminate many, and he was right (only 2) so I moved the list down to 5. One of those will get my vote tonight.

 

[dirtydawg10]

I guess so. My reasoning is purely to get a different angle. This game has quite a few vets that could play off the turn but it also has some players that could not. It depends mainly on who the mafia is willing to try and turn and whether or not they are going to risk loosing them.

So you actually think scum would use the serum on a player who couldn't pull off a switch overnight? Either they will kill a good player who is also a PR or they will gain a good player.

...
Ok, one other thing I don't understand is why Pir would be automatically thought of as mafia....

Because last night Pir was my main Suspect so that is the angle I wrote about in my post

Yes, my vote had to be early and was more rushed than I wanted it to be because of my schedule. I can't say I would have come to a different or the same conclusion as the day went on when I know now that she was innocent.



I don't follow you Razz. What about removing one townie AND gaining a vote for your team doesn't seem attractive to the scum?

I'm not sure which games you have played so far but there has to have been at least one where a turn was involved. Finding that person is never as easy as you make it out to be...it's early enough in the game where inconsistencies are more tolerated. Changing teams now, IMO, would be easier than later in the game when there is more of a pattern to for others to follow.



I am assuming this was meant more to be tongue and cheek than actual strategy?



Again, I am assuming that you don't actually think this is a legit strategy and rather it is wishful thinking...I cannot think of a time in the history of AC mafia where the scum team purposefully decided not to hit someone...especially when it could be coupled with another hit or even a turn on the same night.

Maybe in the course of questioning Razz, Rich (and Lab) did help the mafia in some way. However, you also have to weigh that against the questioning of someone who is not making sense...ie, Razz. Are you suggesting that they should have let the comments by Razz just slide?

Yes it was a tongue in cheek comment. I actually was having a hard time believing that Rich and Razz couldn't figure that out. Chill and yourself seem to have figured it out fairly easily. I agree Razz was not making sense. In hindsight I also believe that the scum are probably smart enough to figure out Rich's scenario all on their own. That is of course unless Razz is scum.

Dawg, I want to add one more thing for you...

Why did you single out Rich for giving advice to the scum in the thread when Lab mentioned the same thing two times before Rich even got involved in the discussion with Razz?






THEN Rich says this:



But you only say Rich gave the "advice"



Not trying to turn this on Lab but I don't understand why you just ignored the fact that she brought it up first.

I didn't single out Rich. I was in discussions with Rich so I pointed that out. Lab was not involved in our discussions so it never came up.

My belief is that there were no Gingers on the board last night. That's why the syrum wasn't used. The gingers had little to no chance to lose a member.

Vote count as of 3:40


Vote count as of 7:39, no one new except me. It's likely that the decission was made (if not before) somewhere between these two votes to not use the syrum.


Vote count as of 8:08 no one new, same seven.


Vote count as of 8:48 Lab added.


Vote count 9:00 final, some moves, but no one new


JPap posted after my original post that I didn't really eliminate many, and he was right (only 2) so I moved the list down to 5. One of those will get my vote tonight.

The other option is that Jessica was not up for the lynch. It could have been another Ginger altogether. We can't rule out Pir and Kash for that reason. Now if Pir UD's tonight I guess we can rule him out.

 

[TwoHobbies]

I am not getting a good understanding on the reasons for not including AAF and Rich in your list.



My post should of said..why giving AAF and Rich a pass, I know what you said in your post, but really?

I have this same question.... it's not making the best sense to me. I would think they held onto the serum until after day 1. I would think day 1 is way too early to use the serum and good thing too..... because if they were as confused about the serum as we are, they sure are getting a good explanation of it now.

[/QUOTE]

I really don't understand why AAF, and Rich are such a big problem for you guys. It's my list. The list could change a lot after nightfall, but for tonight it stays at 5.

I also can't believe all this talk about the Giners not using the syrum because they didn't know how it worked ?!?!?!? Give me a break this isn't junior mafia. Who are these three stooge gingers in the scum den?