The problem with ponds is that they very rarely have nice square corners and straight, flat edges. I know when I did mine, due to the shape, it was necessary to have many smaller folds to fit the contour rather than 4 large ones. The smaller ones are much more difficult to keep folded down flat...pond liner doesn't crease like paper. Think of it as folding a bicycle tire....you can fold it in half, but its going to want to unfold it as soon as the pressure is off.
I completely get what you're saying. I'm hoping you're not right. I'm banking on a couple things. The triangle fold of the liner in each corner will be sandwiched between the inner liner wall and the plywood. The fold across the top is then sandwiched between 2 2x6s to secure it. The folded liner can't escape because it has nowhere to go. As I said, we'll see if my theory is correct in practice. You'll be the first to know if I succeed or fail.