{snip}Do I buy the notion that Ice genuinely believes (if innocent) that the value of his contribution to this game is greater if he's dead (to communicate/invest with dead innocents) than if alive (posting, voting, debating, rooting scum)? Not for a minute. That's a load of crap. Ice is well aware of his worth to the town for his ability to poke through smokescreens and call people out for suspicious behaviors. And that's where my problem with Ice's remark lies.
When he first said it, he was under no pressure. No real interest about him had come up.. no votes on him.. no one questioning him. The probability at that time that Ice would actually get lynched on Day 1 was
slim to none. Since making the statement, however, Ice has drawn votes and has been grilled about this by several people. The town's focus has shifted his direction, he's picked up several votes, and many people are now questioning his motives, agenda, and possible allegiance. In that situation, trying to retract what he said would be disasterous. Ice is no simpleton and would take care to guard against reacting badly when he's under some pressure. For Ice to survive, he needs to take it all in stride. He stands by the statement he made, doesn't try to weasel his way out of this, fields questions about it without overreacting to them, and clarified his meaning/intent wherever necessary. Grace under pressure demonstrated by a consummate mafia player.
Unfortunately, none of this helps us in any way to determine whether Ice is innocent or evil. Ice would respond to this situation exactly as he has done regardless of his role. Ice's reaction to all the scrutiny interests me now a lot
less than the reaction this has drawn from other players.
There was one little naggy detail in the back of my mind when I voted Ice.. and I'm giving that a little more weight now than I did yesterday. That is..... JL has become an instigator of sorts in this game who has already (on Day 1) managed to point our focus and our votes toward 2 leading lynch candidates... first FF and then Ice. Whether this was intentional and he's giggling about this in the scum den or unintentional... wish I could tell.
A simple exchange between FF and JL...
....... has resulted in this:
And this:
(5) FF - JL (19) JRR (87) CCM (145) Annie (155) Rich (216) ILM (332)
Whether JL is innocent or evil (for the moment)...... who among those 5 other voters also make good mafia suspects?
I can accept JRR and CCM voting as they did at the time they made their votes. Neither of them have dealt with FF and his nonsense as much as the rest of us have. Fairly quick votes from new (returning) players seems reasonable where FF is concerned.
IMO both Annie and Rich stand out a lot more as potential scum who (when they're evil) generally like to sit back, lie low, and let someone like JL hand FF's head over to us on a silver platter.
As does... the way ILM conveniently jumped on at the end of the line where she likely thinks it'd be easy to claim she was mislead by other opinions should FF get killed and prove to be innocent.
For that matter, Annie's later retraction off FF to vote Lab Rat (all by himself) would be a very good move for scum to disassociate himself from helping to lynch an innocent. Annie's singleton vote on Lab is safer and less consequential once the imminent death of a townie is well assured.[/QUOTE] thought it was worth looking at kashta's suspects/thoughts on the people voting for FF.....
(Sort of continued from my previous post.)
Similarly.. I question which of these names are most likely to take advantage of a good opportunity (if scum) to benefit by placing their vote on someone they know is innocent.
Lab Rat - I disagree with Wizard's assessment that Lab waits and carefully deliberates before deciding who she's going to go after. In her case, all it usually takes is one logical argument or some theory she's pulled out of thin air and she's fairly quick to make snap judgements. Then she's pretty relentless in her pursuit of someone either because she really thinks they're scummy or she wants to appear like she's bush kicking on the town's behalf.... all the while, adamantly arguing with or pouncing on anyone who even mildly disagrees with her.
Kashta - Well yeah, my name is there too. While I may be putting my own neck at risk by bringing this up, that's okay. I like to think I'm competent enough not to be easily manipulated or suckered in by someone like JL......... as I used to be... when JL plants his little seeds of suspicion against someone. Since I also always suspect Ice in these games and look for subtle logic twists from him whenever possible... I believe it would be foolish and naive not to question his motives every game. That's why I voted him.
Bio - This is someone who swooped right in to place a convenient vote on someone at a time when she thought it was a safe way to hide a mafia vote against someone on the other side.
Mael - Hard to read.. still undecided.
Noods - Not looking like a pro-town move on her part.
At this point, it's too soon in the game to make a definitive call and I'm not sure what to conclude about either JL or Ice. If either of those two are evil, I'm certainly not going to figure that out on Day 1. Placing my vote on Ice was one thing, but leaving it there implies a certainty of opinion that I can't say I have (yet). But what's gone on in this thread... reading the posts and questioning where votes have been placed... I feel there's a very strong likelihood that Annie, Rich, and Bio (or even just 2 out of 3) are working quietly against the town.
I retract my vote on Ice.
My top suspects right now are JL, Annie, Rich, and Bio.
I'm leaning Lab Rat and ILM more to the scum side than townie.
I'm still undecided or neutral about everyone else (including Ice which explains my retraction above).
First... I'd really like JL to address the points I have brought up in my posts today. I doubt that my concerns about JL are solid enough yet to base voting him this soon. But I'm not far away from making that change... very likely will decide to vote him between now and nightfall (assuming I get time today to follow the thread early enough).
Second... Depending on how this plays out with JL which I'm counting as "yet to be determined"... my next choice for top suspect would be BioHazard.
I vote to lynch Bio.
I'll wait to read JL's response(s) before making a final decision about voting him. In the meanwhile, based on everything that's gone on in this thread, I think Bio is the one most likely to have slipped up at this point. Bio is also carrying votes to which I'm happy to add mine.
I very well may switch to JL later... so we'll see. At the moment, a single vote from me on JL would seem meaningless when other top suspects appear to be lynchable today.
i will pull more later............