MAFIA #5 The Play.....

Way tooo much reading....


I vote to lynch joander.

The mafia over-powered the townines attepmt to get rid of jo and voted out clown (atleast thats my opinion).

I am also cautious of judge, ogre, bkw, and mee-mee.

CL
And why would you be cautious of me...

Ya know, some of us have a life outside this thread:silly: Ya, its called work :grinyes:
Reasoning?
because I casted a vote that made more sense to me, but now I could be wrong...maybe you are Innocent

and my list of suspects :

Judgemax
Dangerdoll
Sploke
bkw (weak suspicion)

My other candidates :

Ogre
Mee-Mee
Ice (pretty much only for the late change to clown-lover; gotta admit it was unfortunate at best ice)

Can you give me a reason why you think I might be Mafia...I have to work long hours at work, and yesterday I got on just in the nick of time to vote for someone

I guess that could work, but if I was mafia and wanted to talk with another mafia I would just use pm rather than give anything away in the forum.
This is what Mafia do, they talk PM and then change and try to make us believe that they are Innocents...distancing from one another...

Adjusted now as follows :

Judgemax
Dangerdoll
bkw (weak suspicion)
Ice

My other candidates (all weak)

Mee-Mee
Ogre
Sploke

And tell me again why you might think I am Mafia....
 
Analysis of Ice - day one to now.


First post of any note : post 55. Earlier enquiry as to how many mafia there in fact are.




Then post 88 - quotes three of us, one by clown lover (re numbers of mafia), one by me, ice hints at me being mafia for posting about a mafia 101 strategystrategy , one by joander, ice says that joander has made the classic mafia slip up.

Comment : This 'classic mafia newbie slip-up' has only ever been related back to cory lover in game 4...it is not a 'classic' mafia newbie slip-up.

Okay not classic,poor choice of words. I believe you also called it classic though didn't you later on?

Then post 95: Note naming CL and Joander...and me too btw lol (check my earlier post for who first put CL and Joander together...I may have missed this post by Ice in that regard)

We're talking what a few hours into the game? Have to put names out there to get reactions. I didn't trust you at that time.I even stated in post 55 I thought you possible mafia.


There is then some innocuous posting concerning how many mafia there are (ice thought there were 22 players at one point, no big deal, I think), also advice to new players to post nothing with a 'mafia vibe' as it will make us think they're mafia. Some comment about the roles being completely random (Ice was detective last game)

So trying to help the less experienced innocents along in the game is a mafia ploy now?

Then this : post 164 : Flattering for me, but my 'list' was not a list at that stage. It was an analysis of joander, sploke and i think dangerdoll :

LOL it has multiple names correct? Its a list. What else would you call it?



Adopting someone elses position, if they have named an innocent, is a mafia tactic - it means the mafia can divorce him/her self from the innocent lynch in due course.

So only the 1st person to make an assumption on somebody is innocent and anyone that agrees is mafia?

Now, look at my post - not a list at all. Its post 157





Here in fact is a list I posted earlier than the above post (at post 107) :


Note presence of Judge, Dangerdoll. Ice did not like this list as much as my analysis of three players though.

I hadn't seen anything from JM or DD at the time to think they were mafia. By post 157 I had already threw my suspicion of JP into the ring because of his post 128.

We then see Ice again at post 191...focusing on Sploke...analysed by me, my analysis adopted by Ice as a list

LOL again you're thinking to highly of yourself buddy. I was answering a quote from sploke from a statement he made in post 175




Post 211 Talking to Clown Lover...says outright that he may switch to put Clown Lover over the top. This is what in fact happened :

I started thinking that Jo had just misposted and wasn't actually mafia. Clown looked more mafia to me at the time. Harping on roles and numbers, looked to me like he was trying to confuse people.
In post 237 I stated I only have 12 hours to make a decision, I was trying to find the one that looked most mafia. I may have done a lot of leaning on people,namely you, but I didn't have the luxury of watching for most of what was going to happen the next day. If my last job had taken 15 minutes longer I wouldn't even have been able to switch my vote. I did a quick skim,seen a lot of Jo might be innocent which I was thinking all day. Seen some Clown votes and switched hoping that everyone was correct.



Remember JM's slightly extreme reaction to being called mafia early in the game 'see if I play with y'all'. This is Ice's response at post 239



HN called Ice on this, said he was defending a mafia. Ice said he typed as HN's prior post accusing of drama, so couldn't be a defence. Maybe. Could be a caution though...bkw did similar, see my post re JM.

I type with 2 fingers lol, I'm not throwing 60 wpm out there. I then have to proofread my response.
I posted at 8:00 in response to JMs 7:40 post. Then had to read 3 other posts before posting my next post, HN fell in between those 3 and my "defense" of JM



Posts his own list at 285 :

Didn't feel as strong about Jo at that point but no one had convinced me otherwise so my vote stayed on him. The other 2 I still feel the same about. Though I was wrong about Clown after all



post 301 is a nothing post. Says he thinks Ogre needs watchin...Coler is probably innocent...HN also

The final vote for Clown Lover : post 382.

Already stated it was a last second time running out switch. At that point I had all day to think about it without having to sort thru numerous posts. Concluded that Clown seemed more mafia,a quick skim thru the posts confirmed others though the same. I didn't want to lynch an innocent.



Note : Jpappy was Ice's second suspect Clown was his third, going by his own list see above EDIT : I notice he named three in no particular order, in fairness. EDIT

I posted the sequence of the last votes for CL - Jensons, then me, then ice votes and I retract mine simultaneously. My post didn't say I set a trap. In fact, it wasn't much of a trap to make Mafia vote Clown Lover in the end as it was a vote for Clown Lover who was innocent, thankfully I pulled it before night. However Ice reacted by saying he hadn't fallen into a trap as he voted as I withdrew mine. But my vote was actually intended to see if people would defend Clown Lover, which didn't happen. We have to check to see if Clown Lover was ended by Ice's vote

My thought was it was insinuated. By the same account we could assume you were guilty of NOT voting to protect Jo.Or that you were mafia and trying to get clown voted off,then pulling last second so that your name doesn't appear on the list thus distancing yourself.

Post 428 Ice talks about people not voting - ZS & HN...says this is dodgy. Says Mee-Mee's vote made no sense (it didn't : ' I vote for malbri because Joander has most votes' ??)

Post 440 & 439 Ice says the PM thing is a red-herring - it is/could be. I got one after night fell because I stupidly posted during night time and RB deleted my post - so I got the usual automated deletion pm. Similar at 443.



And that, boys and girls, is my audit of Ice. Does anyone think it gives him a case to answer ?

Hope my answers to your analysis show me innocent. All I really see is a lot of reaching but thats to be expected this early in the game. Most the stuff quoted about me can be said about anyone of us.

I must question this.I haven't really gone back and checked everyones votes but this was at 5:30 just before the night was to fall

Day 1 Votes:
joander - (5) judgemax (59) IceH2O (164) cory lover (172) DangerDoll (308), KOTD (335)
judgemax - (1) Hooked Newbie (222)
DangerDoll - (1) clown-lover (268)
clown-lover - (3) johnlarson66 (296) ZSandmann (324) joander123 (338)

jpappy789 - (1) sploke (336)

30 minutes till Night

If Jo had 5 including mine and Clown had 3. Jensons voted Clown to make it 5-4 Jo. Coler then votes Clown to make it 5-5 but pulls his making 5-4 Jo again.While he was pulling I voted Clown again making it 5-5. Clown pulled his DD vote and voted for Jo which would have made it 6-5 Jo then night fell.

So did Rb miscount the votes? And HA! I didn't vote the deciding vote. Unless Zman miscounted.
 
Now let me reread everything again and see if anyone stands out as mafia.
 
I think that DangerDoll needs to be looked at more closely. This post, in response to Malbri saying that Coler was suspicious, seems to be casting doubt on Malbri, ever so innocently. After this post several people started to look at Malbri. DD also watches the thread often, but doesn't post much. Just my thoughts.

For voting tonight, I will probably follow Coler 1) to ease his mind about me 2) he's a smart guy.

~brandy
ok, I can understand your reasoning but it looks like a weak attempt to try to take the heat off of Mal which m akes me wamt to give her a closer look. And Yes, I watch the thread often but during the day, I am at work and sometimes I have to have the window closed due to being at work. I read it when I can. If you were goiong to throw that as a reason to be suspicious, you would need to choose everyone else as well because I am sure it's not just me being here.... I find it a sad attempt at a new player trying to be the mafia.

Here are some more good posts on Mal....
Ya know, some of us have a life outside this thread:silly: Ya, its called work :grinyes:
Reasoning?
the world's famous excuse, should go in the Mafia Excuse Hall of Fame

wait...can you tell when people are pming people or did I miss something?

well I did, so I guess its a yes, but my question is how?

ive read it 3 times...

Im clueless..

ooohhhhh

where the heck was that?

I read back like 3 pages, and you said read the last few posts...

lol, sorry for pulling it off track(and btw no wonder i was confused, you told me to look a few posts back on game 5, i just looked and its on game four)
Continue..

I didnt vote because I honestly had no idea, its my first game so im trying to get into the flow of things, yet still try to contribute what I can without making osme huge mistake that is going to make everyone think im mafia
This is simply classic New Mafia behavior, simply put. I think we need to reorganize our thoughts and look at the bigger picture.... instead of just trying to play follow the leader. The new players are so easy to spot as Mafia, I'm surprised no one has picked up on Mal.
 
In addition to my post. The reason I am so suspicious of mal is now, Jensons feeble attempt to protect her and also as she tries playing the "I'm new, I don't know" role.
 
This was the final counts for Day 1...
Clown Lover- JohnLarson, Z, JO,Jensons,Ice
JO- JM, Cory Lover, DD, KOTD, Clown Lover..

so it was actually a tie,,,,and I found something really interesting....in the Day 1 lynching votes, JL was the first to vote for CL 2

and now in Day 2, he is also the first to vote for Jo...

That is kind of strange and the people that have voted for Jo so far are::

JohnLarson, Cory Lover, KOTD, Joander, and JP....

So someone tried to start a rr trip again for Jo....and one quick question for Coler...JM thinks you are an Innocent ....and she IS quieter this game...why think she is Mafia....I am kind of thinking she is Mafia, but she said I am mostly likely an Innocent, (for which I really am this time, Honest truth), and I am not acting like I am trying to protect anyone either...just want to make sure I am going to make the right vote...of course I didnt vote for CL or Jo in Day 1...and we ended up lynching one of our own...and hope we dont do it with Jo...just want to make sure that JM is an absolute sure fire hit for Mafia...:lipssealedsmilie:
 
I have to make a vote tonight because tomorrow I will be working from 8am-about 10pm, and I have to go to bed and get a good nights sleep long day for me tomorrow...
 
Something strikes me as a little funny rereading posts.

I know we're supposed to think Coler is innocent because of the botched hit.
But as its been pointed out it could have been a ploy. With a 50/50 shot it could be worth taking.

Reason I bring this up.

Post 269

okay I'm out for the night;

my current thinking in no order except for bkw :

1. Judgemax
2. Sploke
3. DD
4. bkw but really weak and basically just my gut instinct.

No offence to any of you - you just flickered my mafia meter.

I change my vote to lynch Sploke

My reckoning is that there's 9 hours before night, so I will get a chance to come back on before nightfall.

Voted Sploke taking his vote off himself

Post 271

I don't see it for Ice yet.

Agree ZS and Joander merit watching, for different reasons

By this post I'm assuming Coler doesn't trust Zman.

Post 294

I haven't posted as much because there isn't much right now but I feel I've put my thoughts out there pretty well so far. This week I will for sure be playing but I will be less present than last game. As I said in the sign up thread I got a bit behind following Game 4 so I HAVE to do some catch up this week or my supervisor is going to draw and quarter me. But no worries I promise to keep my thoughts flowing. I'm off to bed but here are my closing thoughts.

1) Where's johnlarson, let's not forget about him.
2) Was joander's slip innocent or loaded?
3) Why the very early finger pointing with DD, Malbri, CL#2 (new nickname for you :D)?
4) Is JM playing differently? I think yes, I noticed she is using lol, lmao, etc. a lot in her posts. Last game she was gravely serious.
5) What about the three I consider the Elder's of the Town. Not for age or experience but just for their willingness to guide. Ice, Coler, Ogre
6) KOTD is playing it safe and quiet again...
7) bkw I guess I like the taste of mousepad cause your one to watch again.

No vote from me so soon, and this is NOT a Mafia list, just my thoughts.

Sandy runs in through the Twilight and lights a candle by his bed. The town is so gloomy today, it feels oppressive like a rainy day funeral. But who will be in the casket? Hopefully tomorrow the sun will peak from the tarry clouds and the birds will splash in the after storm puddles. Tomorrow will be a good day for the town, Sandy feels it.

Time to break the streak and nab a Mafia on the first Day.

Here Zman has Coler listed

Post 306

Zman calls out Sploke, who Coler has a vote on

Sploke answers in post 309 and 311

Zman says he got the answer he was looking for in post 312

Got what I wanted ;)

I remove my vote for sploke

Post 313

my vote is currently on sploke Z...I was fairly happy with it. Can I ask what you're thinking ?

Post 336 Sploke has Coler on the list

Alright, after reviewing I'm going to throw a few thoughts out there and see what happens.

Suspected Mafia:

Coler is making me nervous. Not because he's voted for me, I'm not exactly sure. "Methinks thou dost protest too much." He's made a pretty big show of "proving his innocence", and I'm not sure I'm buying it.

Coler never questions this

Out of the blue Post 366

I take my lynch vote off sploke

seeing what ZS is seeing now

Could all 3 be mafia playing us? Finger pointing at one another listing each other as mafia and voting then pulling votes.

Post 368

I think Z has done some very good analysis and you were my first vote, you were just quiet about it. Now, you respond with great details... very curious. I am in a rush to read through the rest of today's postings, but may make a late switch back to you.

HN even doubts Sploke

Post 370

Ladies and Gents lol I'm now thoroughly confused and just hoping I will survive the night.

I don't even have any confidence in my list any more, and will not be working from it tomorrow.

Confused?? Hinting at a hit

Then he gets hit that night.

Coincidence? Protection among friends?

Anyone want to chime in?

I vote to lynch 1 of the 3 lol

I'll decide after seeing some responses
 
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My random thoughts for folks to ponder. Feel free to comment or provide rebuttal.

Believed Mafia:
JMax- Posting style and frequency quite different than game 4 even if she doesn’t see it and had to go to the park. Until the now infamous list (and I do know how it was formed) last game, she was fairly subdued. I also believe that the drastic change to go from accusatory to nice is an effort to lay low. I know I tried to cause no waves in the last game…


Leaning Mafia:
Danger Doll- Came out with unsubstantiated allegations really quick and then went totally silent. Now comes back to Mal by quoting a lot of unrelated posts from her. I believe Mal’s confusion was genuine (I’ve seen her in the chat room lol). No offense Mal.

Joander- Maybe made a newbie mistake, but seemed to catch on quickly after some brief defensiveness. Has now gone quiet. This could be because they were instructed to do so.

Sploke- The only posts have seemed to be in defense of others or to be providing some possibly misleading info (i.e. the .45) knowing that the townies would protect the Vig. Also seemed to try to “align” / agree with several people lately. I believe if Max is mafia, Sploke is not far behind.

Zsandmann- Also bears close watch in my opinion. The vote change last night could have been as described, but it could have also been a way to cast an innocent light on Sploke.

Ogre- also needs to be watched just due to the fact that he is an experienced and influential player and the mafia seems to me more cohesive this time.

Ice- I find the recent posts quite odd. Nothing solid to point out yet.

Coler- Presumed Innocent. I just don’t believe they’d risk a strong mafia player on a coin flip. Plus his analysis and attention to the game say to me that he’s helping the town.
 
This is what it says about the Botched Murder...

The “Botched Murder”. On the first game night, I will flip a coin. Either the Townies lynch or the Mafia hit will fail. Nothing will be revealed about this person’s special roles, if any.


So maybe he was almost lynched by the Mafia...Not that I am covering up anything for I most certainly am not...and it was a random the Mafia lynching failed on Coler...not unless they threw him up for a lamb...it was a 50-50 chance and we lost CL 2,,,but Coler was saved, maybe he is telling the truth...
 
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