Mafia 62- The Play

[Zaffy]

eidt: a tie against him.

 

[AnniesNotOK]

DAY FOUR

Razz-4- Ice(#684), Jpap(#685), Zaffy(#739), Lab(#756)
Zaffy-4- ZS(#691), DD(#728), Mich(#865), Razz(#855)

 

[Zaffy]

JB still needs to vote right?

 

[AnniesNotOK]

DAY FOUR

Razz-4- Ice(#684), Jpap(#685), Zaffy(#739), Lab(#756)
Zaffy-4- ZS(#691), DD(#728), Mich(#865), Razz(#855)

No vote: JB

 

[Lab_Rat]

Ok, I was walking the dog and thinking about the Zaffy/Michwol who is mafia dilemma. The following really bothers me:

DAY FOUR

Razz-4- Ice(#684), Jpap(#685), Zaffy(#739), Lab(#756)
Zaffy-2- ZS(#691), DD(#728)

No vote from Mich or Razz

AFTER WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SWITCH TO 24 HOUR DAYS.

NIGHTFALL IN 25 HOURS

PM'S AS REQUIRED

So, when Razz and Mich put their votes in, you get your tie.

At first I didn't think much of this, but it's now bugging me that it really happened...if Zaffy were mafia with Razz I don't think he would have assumed that Michwol would vote for him.

DD's voting pattern fits an innocent imo, she voted Ag with the landslide on day 1, day 2 she was the lynch-winning 5th vote on Noodles, day 3 she was on Dawg. I think she's just been voting to keep from UD at this point.

Here he's clearing DD, this was before she came out as vig. That's not something mafia scum would do. If anything, mafia scum would be trying to set her up due to her lack of posting, etc.

All I have to say here is that I am a guy!
After that I vote to lynch Zaffy.

Vote 1 lands on Zaffy. This was a pretty easy prediction, afterall, Razz is going to try to save his own butt.

I vote to lynch Zaffy

His off the wall conspiracies and always changing behavior puts him ahead of Razz. He's gone from pointing fingers at everyone else, being aggressive, and making conspiracies to this

You should vote for me then.


Feed me to the sharks please.

This is the one that's getting to me...it fell shortly after Razz's huge long post that made me go cross eyed and his subsequent vote for Zaffy. I can't help but think Razz and Mich are teammates. It's a thought I've had the past couple of days, I know I've mentioned it a couple of times before. This further makes me think that. If Mich had said he was voting Zaffy for the tie I could accept that. But the way he followed Razz in votes...it's getting to me.

I must have ESPN or something.

It is odd how they followed so quickly on you like that.

So, at this point, I think Razz needs to be lynched. If nothing else changes I think I will actually vote Mich over Zaffy next nightfall. Any thoughts?

(If my back and forth between the two is causing confusion, y'all can just tell me to shut up.) :lipssealedsmilie:

 

[jbradt]

Ok... I'm back. I had the chance to take the whole day and have some fun in the mountains, so I took it! Nightfall isn't until wednesday night, so I didn't feel a need to vote quickly. I'm exhausted but I've caught up to the present. Here's the stuff that stuck out most.

JB hasn't voted according to this but wasn't listed as a non vote. Guess he breaks the tie.

Not sure if I was in his shoes I wouldn't vote Razz. Something about Mich voting Zaffy concerns me.

Earlier I wondered if JLs post against Mich cleared him. I'm thinking not...I think it was distancing.

I'd rather we took Razz out today. Then decide between Mich and Zaffy. I'd like to see more from them both.

You got it sheriff Ice. I vote to lynch Razz.

hahaha you guys are cr4azy.... sorry, if I had any idea how little I would be to post to the game, I surely wouldnt have signed up.... but it's a good tghiung I did. I've done something quite well in my medicated state. I guess my reading and cognitive skills have been prety on the level.

Tis I, I felt that JL swtarted avting a little weird and he wasn't quite as crafty as he can be. At the very last minute, 7:56pm, I decided to go for it and take him out. It was the proudest moment of my life in this game of Mafia.... I nailed his neck right to the wall.

I might have skimmed here but is Mich trying to claim Vig or is he just explaining his votes?




hahaha there was a medicated vig this game


if anything, my thinking was impressively quick.... not such a bad thinker after all, huh

You rock DD! :dance::thm::woot:Medicated or not you can still shoot straight.

Yeah, someone pulling the noob card is a red flag. And I think he pulled it at least 4 times. There have been a couple of points in time I think he received some coaching. It's been why he's been on my list for a while. And if JL is pretty hands off with coaching noobs, the randomness and spasticity makes sense. He was probably told last night that he needs to post more. The random, hollow posts above are the result. Also, his sliding in at the last minute last night, to help lynch an innocent...

This makes a lot of sense to me. Mich's posting (pattern and content) doesn't. I like him and Zaffy for the tie tomorrow.
This is the best word ever.

Ok, I was walking the dog and thinking about the Zaffy/Michwol who is mafia dilemma. The following really bothers me:




At first I didn't think much of this, but it's now bugging me that it really happened...if Zaffy were mafia with Razz I don't think he would have assumed that Michwol would vote for him.


Here he's clearing DD, this was before she came out as vig. That's not something mafia scum would do. If anything, mafia scum would be trying to set her up due to her lack of posting, etc.


Vote 1 lands on Zaffy. This was a pretty easy prediction, afterall, Razz is going to try to save his own butt.


This is the one that's getting to me...it fell shortly after Razz's huge long post that made me go cross eyed and his subsequent vote for Zaffy. I can't help but think Razz and Mich are teammates. It's a thought I've had the past couple of days, I know I've mentioned it a couple of times before. This further makes me think that. If Mich had said he was voting Zaffy for the tie I could accept that. But the way he followed Razz in votes...it's getting to me.



It is odd how they followed so quickly on you like that.

So, at this point, I think Razz needs to be lynched. If nothing else changes I think I will actually vote Mich over Zaffy next nightfall. Any thoughts?

(If my back and forth between the two is causing confusion, y'all can just tell me to shut up.) :lipssealedsmilie:

Again, this all makes a lot of sense to me. I like my vote where it is.

I need to get some food, and may be back with more on Zaffy later tonight. I said I would look at it, and now it seems it may be helpful tomrrow.

 

[jbradt]

I couldn't resist going back to look at Zaffy's posts. I said I'd pull the ones from the last night fall. I also wanted to have the day 3 votes handy.

DAY THREE

Razz-5- Ice(#459), Jpap(#505), Lab(#516), JB(#587), Dawg(#594)
Ice-0- Dawg(#482)
Lab-0- Razz(#501)
ZS-1- Zaffy(#510)
Dawg-5- JB(#552), JL(#569), DD(#571), Razz(#576), Mich(#582), ZS(#618), JL(#648)


Sorry for the delay...sick kids, sick wife, yada yada....

The solo vote on Zsand is strange, but I also have to wonder if a mafia would take such a big risk this late in the game. I'm starting to build a theory on Razz, Mich and Zaffy being scum... but I need to work on it some more. No tinfoil hats required, but I may have just hit on something.

Awesome night!

...

What is Jpaps role?

Questioning a mistep by one of the other mafia candidates... I forget who atm. (I think Razz)

Still, I don't know anyones roll. So by that logic I should have you and everyone else 2nd on my list. It's not just the one word I have issue with.

Again calling out Razz

Since it's what I'm looking at right now, and I think others could use it.

Based on this I'm going to lean innocent for Lab, looks like the 2 known mafia thought she was an easy target.

I like this post, and I like that Zaffy is using some logic for once. From what I've seen from many of his posts in and out of game, he's mathematically minded, so it makes sense that he would be able to see patterns in voting tallys.

Razz voted with scum 3 times. Others voted with scum 1 or zero times.

Hmmm... seems a little scummy that you would look over the votes so carefully and make a mistake like this...

You're right. twice.

... and you got called out for it already...

Yeah, it's only twice he voted with scum Zaffy. But it is 3x he voted for an innocent.

... twice in fact. And also a good point by Labby.

It's something, I don't know if it's enough to go on. How often would a mafia team stack up like that?

Night 1 the two we know stacked up together. I find that bizzare on it's own, unless they had to to keep their own out of the running?

Something is bothering me about Zaffy making such a strong case, then saying "I don't know if it's enough to go on." You were okay with the tinfoil hat conspiracy, but this seems weak? I don't get it...

Noods only had 1 vote on night 1, and it was an early one (post 66, Dawg)

The others who had votes later in the day were:
Ice
JL.

Seems they were saving JL I guess.

...

Day 2, Lab was the early choice, so they packed up on her. Noodles switched off, but then back on. You switched off Lab, and onto Noods. So you're a little cleaner in my mind, Ice and ZS as well. Maybe the water is safe to drink after all. Razz ends up on Lab rat though, so that's a scum point for Razz.

More scum points for Razz.

Day 3, Razz and JL both on Dawg.

I vote to lynch Razz

Makes sense.

You know I love my tin hat, but I was thinking while typing. :nutkick:

...

Jpap - voting behavior.
Lab - voting behavior
DD - for not voting Razz right now.
Michwol42795 - Post more!
Ice - Apparently clean now.
Dawg - Scum stacked against him.
ZSandman - cleared on voting behavior, mostly.
JB - Has had lots to say, I want to read it again, my gut says nice guy.
Razz - Scummy McScumscum
Zaffy - included for a complete list. Innocent!

Apparently you decided voting behavior was enough after all.

Zaffy...why is Dawg still on the list?

poor editing on my part.

...

The ultimate WIFOM?

I don't know what WIFOM means.

If the teams were truly assigned randomly....:hitting:

...

Since people don't like me this game, I'll play too if that's alright.

My 3 scum are Razz, DD, Mich. Then comes JB, Zsand, Jpap, Lab, Ice, Me.

In that order.

Same as the colored list above, but ordered.

I'm scummier than Mich, he has 11 posts... :crazy:

...

Vote JL, make it a tie between him and razz.

Shhh... she's meditcated

I don't care if you're scum or not... this was funny!

Quote:
Originally Posted by AnniesNotOK
DAY TWO

Jpap-0- Lab(#231)
Lab-4- JL(#243), Jpap(#252), Noods(#257), Ice(#310), ZS(#322),Noods(#327), Razz(#330), Rich(#422)
Ice-2- Dawg(#320), Mich(#392)
ZS-1- Zaffy(#350)
Noods-6- Lab(#365), JB(#369), Ice(#400), ZS(#408), DD(#414), Jpap(#426)
Razz-0- Jpap(#421)




Looking at Mich's voting record:
Day 1 he votes for scum. Non-contender.
Day 2 He votes for a non-contender.
Day 3 He votes for an innocent who is tied against presumed scum.
That's enough for me to call him my next vote if Razz comes up meatballs.

More voting behavior.

Since we're role-claiming... I guess I can out myself.
























I am not the vigilante nor the doctor.

Thanks...

Why did you not vote for lab or noodles? did they seem innocent to you?

Do all votes have to be on a target that "matters" do all votes matter innately?

Now Zaffy starts interrogating Mich.

I voted for who I thought was scum at the time.

Things change, part of this game is changing your mind when new information becomes available if that information warrants it.

True enough. But to the bolded part: what information became available that made you believe the conspiracy theory? It sticks out to me as strange that you say (and now you act) like we should only be looking at facts when you went so far out on a limb so recently.

I voted Jpap because I thought that he had trapped Ag.
I voted Zsand because I thought my tinfoil conspiracy was plausible enough to go with.
I voted Zsand again because I had no more information to go on. I didn't change my vote late in the day because it was a tie and I was in no position to break that tie.
I voted Razz today because I think she's scum because of her voting record.
I'll vote Mich tomorrow because of his voting record, unless new information comes up that clears him.

I think Zaffy was drinking while posting... it was his birthday weekend after all... that's the best I can come up with for why someone so (generally, seemingly) logic based would use that as a basis for a theory, let alone two days worth of voting behavior.

It actually not obvious. Please explain.

I think this was to Mich again.

Why razz and zaffy? Are there reasons for these choices?

I think it's because Razz has been made tonight, and will die and show mafia. so you have to saw her name.

You pick me, because I'm the next most lynchable survivor thus far, you guys need to lynch me tomorrow in order to keep the game going one more night so your hits can go through.

And again.

awww. Michwol got scared away...

It is interesting that Mich disappeared. He's definitely looking scummy.

It's not that I'm looking for sympathy, I was just playing with the idea since I have sucked this game. But please re-read my posts since the last nightfall. see how they stand.

I think voting record is a great reason to look at him. He's got a distinct mafia pattern to his voting.

Have you never thought of a better reply after clicking "submit"

I agree with Jpap here. I don't understand why the fact that you're starting to look helpful now detracts from the scumminess of your pattern.
I can say the same for you, Zaffy.

This is how the town loses games. There is no rational reason that michwol's newbie card should protect him at this point.

It's not protecting him, it's making him suspect since he keeps pulling it. I saw Noods use the same technique in (I think) her first game.

I don't care if you're interested in me, vote for me tomorrow. I want you to take a moment and look at Mich though, don't let him slide because you want to be nice to the new kid.

I don't think any one has let him slide. He's been tossed about plenty.

I have not made an argument for my innocence. So I don't think there are posts by me which reflect that. However, the content of my posts since last night I feel are actions which lend me some credibility.

I wish I had time to go through and make a better post, but I have to leave for work in a couple mins.

I know you haven't made an argument, that's part of what worries me, there's no argument to be made. You have been given a little bit of credibility of late, but you still look bad IMO.

DAY FOUR

Razz-4- Ice(#684), Jpap(#685), Zaffy(#739), Lab(#756)
Zaffy-2- ZS(#691), DD(#728)

No vote from Mich or Razz

AFTER WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SWITCH TO 24 HOUR DAYS.

NIGHTFALL IN 25 HOURS

PM'S AS REQUIRED

So, when Razz and Mich put their votes in, you get your tie.

DD's voting pattern fits an innocent imo, she voted Ag with the landslide on day 1, day 2 she was the lynch-winning 5th vote on Noodles, day 3 she was on Dawg. I think she's just been voting to keep from UD at this point.

Labby already mentioned Zaffy clearing DD. She said he was a little less scummy for this, and I can see that reasoning, but I'm not so sure.

I spent most of the weekend with my girlfriend, and friends to celebrate my birthday. So I wasn't reading the thread too deeply. My sin here is skimming.

You should vote for me then.

Happy Birthday!

Feed me to the sharks please.

:shark:

If you're scum I have no problem with this.

Yeah, my words and yours aren't distinguished.

Not that it matters. You're scum and we all know it, no amount of convoluted post/quoting will change that.

Sorry for thinking you were a chick.

After Razz's twilight zone post...

Can't quote your post, so here it is.

I didn't follow up, because you guys hit him that night. So why follow up and claim he's scum?


Distancing on day 4, with a suspect list like this? really? Am I that bad at this game? You got in trouble because you did it way early in the game, with no reasons to back it up. My posts immediately prior to the one you quoted outlined a general posting pattern that I noticed. This list is directly from that outline.


Wow, this formatting is a mess, hopefully it's readable.

The bantering continues.

I actually voted Zs Before I announced my crackpot tinfoil theory. Post #350. I made my theory public in post 510, the next day. My first vote on him was for a weak reason, but not because I thought annie put something in the water. I was still deciding if my crackpot theory meant that the bookclub was scum or not.

But my tinfoil reason was a terrible reason. And it's shown to be wrong. She was lynched without my help at all. I was going

Thanks, I'm going out for Sushi tonight!

This started an exchange with Labby about contradiction...

I must have ESPN or something.

It is a bit odd that they both piled on.

Ouch Zaffy, I think you just jumped into the shark tank with that blatant contradiction of why you voted for Zs on night 2.

Sushi is delicious, enjoy...just don't let your fish know!

reread that, where exactly is this contradiction?

That your first vote on him was for a weak reason, not because Annie put something in the water (what you said to me)...contradicts your previous post that you voted Zs because you thought your theory was plausible. Now I know you didn't announce it until later, but you totally contradicted yourself with those two posts. I even bolded it and underlined it for you.

"It" being your tinfoil conspiracy.

I see it now. I misspoke earlier. But seeing as how I'm not going to change anyones mind about me I don't see the relevance. I don't mind a tie with Razz tonight, but you can change that if you feel like it I guess. I just hope you go with the right choice.

To quote a very silly man, "We will see...".

Excellent shot DD. I'm glad you guys are seeing Mich for what he is. If I survive this nightfall I think it's fair if you still want me to be up for lynch, but I'd love to be against him.

I'll get to this in a little bit (separate post) when I get to my theory. Going through this has helped to clear it up.

eidt: a tie against him.

JB still needs to vote right?

DAY FOUR

Razz-4- Ice(#684), Jpap(#685), Zaffy(#739), Lab(#756)
Zaffy-4- ZS(#691), DD(#728), Mich(#865), Razz(#855)

No vote: JB

Not any more. You have a little while if you want to defend yourself Razz.

 

[jbradt]

Wow... sorry for that last one. I didn't realize it got that long. Regarding the aforementioned theory: the more I think about it, the more it seems obvious. If there are 3 mafia left, Zaffy's recent attack of Razz and Mich could be distancing.

It seems obvious that Razz will get the noose tonight. I can't imagine there would be much movement since Razz really can't be saved unless someone switches OFF of him. Everyone on him has already pretty much said we're not moving.

Losing one vote means we can make it a tie between Zaffy and Mich tomorrow. If the one that comes up is innocent, we know it's the other. If they come up mafia and that doesn't end the game, we know it's the other. Either way we should have it in the bag.

Is there anything I'm missing?

 

[Zaffy]

I couldn't resist going back to look at Zaffy's posts. I said I'd pull the ones from the last night fall. I also wanted to have the day 3 votes handy.


The solo vote on Zsand is strange, but I also have to wonder if a mafia would take such a big risk this late in the game. I'm starting to build a theory on Razz, Mich and Zaffy being scum... but I need to work on it some more. No tinfoil hats required, but I may have just hit on something.


...


Questioning a mistep by one of the other mafia candidates... I forget who atm. (I think Razz)

Again calling out Razz

I like this post, and I like that Zaffy is using some logic for once. From what I've seen from many of his posts in and out of game, he's mathematically minded, so it makes sense that he would be able to see patterns in voting tallys.

Hmmm... seems a little scummy that you would look over the votes so carefully and make a mistake like this...


... and you got called out for it already...


... twice in fact. And also a good point by Labby.


Something is bothering me about Zaffy making such a strong case, then saying "I don't know if it's enough to go on." You were okay with the tinfoil hat conspiracy, but this seems weak? I don't get it...


...


More scum points for Razz.


Makes sense.


...


Apparently you decided voting behavior was enough after all.




...


I don't know what WIFOM means.
...


Same as the colored list above, but ordered.

...




I don't care if you're scum or not... this was funny!

More voting behavior.


Thanks...

Now Zaffy starts interrogating Mich.


True enough. But to the bolded part: what information became available that made you believe the conspiracy theory? It sticks out to me as strange that you say (and now you act) like we should only be looking at facts when you went so far out on a limb so recently.

I think Zaffy was drinking while posting... it was his birthday weekend after all... that's the best I can come up with for why someone so (generally, seemingly) logic based would use that as a basis for a theory, let alone two days worth of voting behavior.


I think this was to Mich again.

And again.

It is interesting that Mich disappeared. He's definitely looking scummy.


I agree with Jpap here. I don't understand why the fact that you're starting to look helpful now detracts from the scumminess of your pattern.
I can say the same for you, Zaffy.




It's not protecting him, it's making him suspect since he keeps pulling it. I saw Noods use the same technique in (I think) her first game.

I don't think any one has let him slide. He's been tossed about plenty.

I know you haven't made an argument, that's part of what worries me, there's no argument to be made. You have been given a little bit of credibility of late, but you still look bad IMO.





Labby already mentioned Zaffy clearing DD. She said he was a little less scummy for this, and I can see that reasoning, but I'm not so sure.


Happy Birthday!

If you're scum I have no problem with this.


After Razz's twilight zone post...


The bantering continues.



This started an exchange with Labby about contradiction...


It is a bit odd that they both piled on.










To quote a very silly man, "We will see...".

I'll get to this in a little bit (separate post) when I get to my theory. Going through this has helped to clear it up.







Not any more. You have a little while if you want to defend yourself Razz.

Look at the time of this post and the ones around it. They are relatively quick in succession, I was essentially typing out my thoughts oon what happened and posting that. So this was a process rather than an individual post.

It's the Wine in Front of Me. ever seen the princess bride?

The information that made me think Zsand was a good vote on day 3 was noodles coming back scum. It made me think maybe my theory had legs. The information that made me throw away my theory was Zsands voting pattern when compared to Razz.

Sounds like he'll get his tomorrow.

 

[Dangerdoll]

I can change my vote to Razz to secure the lynch